Marco Rubio as US secretary of state signals hardline Middle East policy

Florida senator is staunch supporter of Israel and has advocated maximum pressure on Iran

US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate Florida senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state, signalling that the next administration will pursue a hardline approach in the Middle East.

Media reports say Mr Trump will choose Mr Rubio as Antony Blinken’s successor although a decision has yet to be announced officially. Mr Rubio, who was once in the running to be Mr Trump's running mate in the election campaign, has extensive foreign policy experience, sitting as vice chairman on the US Senate intelligence committee and the foreign relations committee.

In the past few years, he has softened some of his views to align more closely with Mr Trump. He would face a volatile world during Mr Trump's second term, with wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan.

Middle East strategy

Mr Rubio’s staunch support for Israel has been a defining feature of his political career. He has consistently backed military and economic aid to the country while endorsing policies that address Israel’s security concerns. He supported the decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem in 2018 during Mr Trump’s first spell as president. Mr Rubio has also said Israel's security is the key to solving many issues in the region, including the crisis in Palestine.

At the same time, he has advocated fostering strong ties with Gulf nations. He views relationships with those countries as essential for regional stability and efforts to counter the influence of Iran. A vocal critic of the Tehran regime, Mr Rubio was one of the strongest opponents of the 2015 nuclear deal, negotiated while Barack Obama was president. He supports a policy of maximum economic pressure on Tehran and has said Washington cannot afford to let Iran expand its influence in the region unchecked.

Nadim Houry, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative think tank, said appointing Mr Rubio would cement a more hawkish stance in Washington. Mr Rubio would probably toe the line on Mr Trump's policies, as he does not have much interest or expertise in the Middle East, Mr Houry added.

“What is most critical to watch would be how he will balance the two crucial US allies in the region – Israel and the Gulf states,” he told The National. “Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it wants the US to do more on the two-state solution for Palestine. But the current Israeli administration clearly does not want that.

“Rubio will be more hawkish on Iran. But we have to wait and see what new leverage he will have to end the war in Gaza.”

Dr Kristian Alexander, a senior fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute in Abu Dhabi, said Mr Rubio’s selection reflects confidence from the president-elect that the senator will be loyal and willingly align with his agenda.

“One can expect the State Department to potentially take a more assertive stance than in Trump’s first term, focusing on a mix of diplomacy backed by military strength and economic sanctions,” Dr Alexander told The National.

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On Iran, he said Mr Rubio's "appointment could mean a continuation or even an intensification of Trump’s 'maximum pressure' campaign, with the potential for tighter sanctions or military posturing aimed at curtailing Iran’s regional activities".

"Rubio has been a staunch critic of Iran’s government and has frequently advocated for tough sanctions and measures to limit Iran’s influence in the region," Dr Alexander said. "Given Rubio’s past rhetoric, he might push for a stricter line in engaging Iran, limiting diplomacy and prioritising containment strategies."

Hardline stance on China

Mr Rubio’s appointment would also suggest that Mr Trump intends to double down on his confrontational approach towards China, with intensified economic and diplomatic pressure. Mr Rubio is one of the most vocal critics of Beijing in the Senate and has been at the forefront of efforts to curb China's global influence, describing the country as America’s "biggest adversary”. His hardline stance includes championing legislation to restrict the operations of Chinese companies in the US, particularly in sectors deemed critical to national security.

His criticism extends to human rights, notably the treatment of the Uighurs. Mr Rubio led congressional efforts to impose sanctions on Chinese officials and was himself the subject of sanctions from Beijing in 2020 over his support for protesters in Hong Kong. In 2022, he introduced bipartisan legislation to ban the Chinese social media app TikTok in the US over espionage concerns.

Cautious support for Ukraine

Mr Rubio has been one of the strongest supporters of military aid to Kyiv since Russia's invasion in 2022 and views the issue as vital to US national interests. He has condemned Russia’s incursions into Ukrainian territory and the annexation of Crimea.

But Mr Rubio has also been cautious about long-term financial commitments to Ukraine. “Our goal should be to support Ukraine in a manner that does not drain our resources or harm our alliances,” he told the Senate this year. He has also suggested that a negotiated settlement may be the most realistic way to end the conflict.

National security and defence

Mr Rubio has consistently advocated increased military spending to confront perceived threats from China, Russia and Iran. He believes in maintaining a strong defence posture to protect US interests around the world.

He also wants the US to continue to pursue its counter-terrorism goals abroad and tackle threats from ISIS and Al Qaeda, while forging stronger international partnerships and intelligence co-operation to dismantle terrorist networks.

Dr Alexander said Mr Rubio’s history in Congress has been marked by a “willingness to support military intervention” and a forward-deployed US presence to counter threats from extremist groups.

“Rubio’s influence might steer US policy in the Middle East towards continued support for allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE in counter-terrorism efforts, while also discouraging any moves to withdraw US forces from critical bases," he said. "This could mean a commitment to maintaining a robust American presence to support regional stability from a US-centric perspective.”