Will Biden put pressure on Israel during final two months in office?

Famine looms in parts of Gaza as Israel nears deadline set by US to increase aid

The humanitarian crisis is especially acute in the north of Gaza, where Israeli forces say they are fighting a resurging Hamas. AFP

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US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin had a “sharp” phone call with his Israeli counterpart on Friday about the humanitarian situation Gaza and the looming deadline set by the US for Israel to increase the amounts of aid into the strip, parts of which the UN says are on the brink of famine.

Mr Austin told Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz that the US could limit arms transfers to Israel if it cannot demonstrate an increase in access and distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza, according to the Israeli network Channel 12.

The report raises questions about how US President Joe Biden, who despite a breakdown in his relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a staunch backer of Israel throughout the Gaza war, will use his final months in office vis-a-vis Israel and its war in Gaza. The war has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians and led to massive escalation elsewhere in the Middle East, which risks embroiling US forces.

Washington, along with many of Israel’s allies, has for months joined aid organisations in calling on Israel to increase humanitarian supplies into Gaza. The Biden administration has nonetheless faced accusations of hypocrisy for not forcing change by using its significant leverage over Israel, most notably by restricting the massive amounts of weapons Israel receives from the US, which are critical to the country's ability to continue to fight.

Pressure on the US to do more has grown amid stark warnings of impending famine in parts of Gaza in recent days, after weeks of an Israeli campaign in the north of the strip. Israel says the return to large-scale operations in the area is to quash renewed Hamas activity in the area, but critics say the assaults are pushing one of the most bombarded areas of Gaza even further into humanitarian catastrophe.

Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner general of UNRWA, the UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees, said on X on Saturday that the news of impending famine was “sadly, not a surprise” and that “hunger has been weaponised by the State of Israel”. Mr Lazzarini referenced a report by food security initiative IPC published the day before, which warned of “an imminent and substantial likelihood of famine occurring” in parts of northern Gaza, urging “immediate action, within days not weeks” to avert a “catastrophic situation”.

The warnings come as the US's November 13 deadline approaches for Israel to demonstrate a change in the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The deadline could present Mr Biden with the first major showdown with Israel’s leadership since Donald Trump won the presidential election.

UN estimates suggest that Israel is highly unlikely to demonstrate tangible change in the few days that remain. URNWA figures state that Israeli authorities allowed an average of 30 lorries per day carrying humanitarian aid into the strip in October. The agency described that rate as the “lowest in a long time, bringing the assistance back to the level of the beginning of the war”.

It remains to be seen whether Mr Biden will use his little time left in office to put more pressure on Israel to achieve US priorities, in particular Israel doing more to address the humanitarian disaster in Gaza and engaging fully in negotiations to free Israeli hostages held in Gaza that would pave the way for a permanent ceasefire.

Former Israeli deputy national security adviser Chuck Freilich told The National that he thinks Israel will “try to find a way to extend the deadline or if necessary do the minimum possible”.

“With Trump coming in they won't want one of the last acts of the administration in regard to Israel to be a dramatic precedent such as this, and Trump will just revoke it in any event so it would be a gratuitous move,” he said.

Mr Netanyahu is likely to try to resist any pressure from Mr Biden and bide time until Mr Trump, who according to polling before the US elections is viewed by a significant majority of Israelis as a better US president for their country's interests, takes office. During his victory speech, Mr Trump vowed to “stop wars” and he repeatedly called for an end to the Gaza war during his campaign.

It is unclear how he wants Israeli to bring about an end to the war. Mr Trump is a strong advocate of Israel who broke long-standing norms in the conflict with Palestinians in Israel’s favour during his last stint in office, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognising Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

If Mr Trump proves to be as supportive of Israeli expansion, Mr Netanyahu could pursue policies advocated by pro-settler and ultra-religious Zionist parties, who form a vital part of his far-right coalition. Their priorities include annexing the occupied West Bank and resettling Gaza, although Mr Netanyahu has stated publicly that the latter will not happen.

However, critics of Israel’s renewed operations in the north say it is part of a plan to violently depopulate the area in order to create a military buffer zone, which could lead to perfect conditions for the establishment of settlements.

Israel’s military said it was approaching “the complete evacuation” of northern Gaza on Tuesday, according to British newspaper The Guardian, in what the report said was the first official acknowledgement from Israel that it was deliberately pushing Palestinians out of the area. An Israeli military spokesman later said the comments were taken out of context.

In October reports emerged that Mr Netanyahu was examining a plan from hardline former generals to block aid into the region in a bid to lure Hamas militants out. Israel would then give Palestinian civilians a window to leave the area, after which it would be declared a closed military zone in which all remaining people would be considered combatants by the Israeli military.