Iran in bind after Israel sticks to US-imposed strike limits, say diplomats

Weekend attack on Iran seen as a win-win for Israel and US, leaving Tehran with no good options

Damaged buildings at Iran's Parchin military base outside of Tehran, on October 27, 2024. AP

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When Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei met on Sunday with the families of four soldiers killed in the latest Israeli strike on the country, his usual bluster was absent.

Although squadrons of Israeli planes struck on Saturday in waves at the seat of power of Iran's Shiite clerical rulers and other targets, Mr Khamenei said that Israel had exaggerated the damage.

“Downplaying what they did is wrong as well, “ Mr Khamenei was quoted as saying by state media.

The subdued tone of a man who regularly preaches the need to destroy Israel may be due to a lack of options to respond without incurring more punishment.

Losses in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq since the start of the Gaza war had already undermined Iran's self-proclaimed image of military invincibility, a major plank in the country's ruling system since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. A reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, assumed office in July, and although foreign policy is determined by the supreme leader, domestic pressures have chipped away at the hardliner's grip.

Two diplomats, one western and one Arab, who have been in contact with Washington, said President Joe Biden had convinced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a limited strike would still sow division among Iran's ruling elite, while leaving Israel free to pursue, with American support, Tehran's allies in the Middle East, particularly Hamas and Hezbollah.

“Biden turned out to be not as lame as a duck. A mixture of US pressure and emergency diplomacy has avoided an Israeli attack that would have driven up oil prices,” the Western diplomat said.

“Netanyahu played ball with him. He got more US help on defence and the freedom to pursue Hamas and Hezbollah,” he said.

Since an Iranian missile attack on Israel on October 1, the US has been urging Israel to limit its response this time and stay away from Iranian nuclear facilities and its oil industry, which underpins Iran’s economy. Washington also sent its advanced Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) system to Israel, adding another layer to Israeli defences against Iranian ballistic missiles.

“Iranian weapons have shown that they don't work too well,” undermining any case for hardliners in the system to mount retaliation, the western diplomat said. He pointed out the relative ease by which the Israeli air force, one of the world's best equipped, hit Tehran, and the missile attacks by Iran against Israel this year, which were largely intercepted.

The Arab diplomat said although Iran has been downplaying the damage of the Israeli strike as a way to justify a non-response, its vulnerability has been exposed.

“Saturday was only round one. It appears that Israel has not just taken a decision to take out the arms of the octopus [Hamas and Hezbollah] but also its head,” he said, adding that Israel could become more emboldened to mount more direct attacks on Iran if Donald Trump wins the US election on November 5.

Future could hinge on US election

Waiel Olwan, senior researcher at the Jusoor Centre for Studies in Istanbul, said the American elections will play a large role in determining Israel's next moves, although attacking nuclear sites directly could still be opposed by a second Trump administration.

Regardless of who wins, Mr Olwan expected expanded Israeli strikes in the next several months against military units, economic production and infrastructure, as well as sites related to Iran's nuclear programme, such as power stations supplying production and research.

Videos on social media early on Saturday showed Iranian air defences appearing to fire blindly into the Tehran night. There were reports of heavy GPS jamming across Iran appearing not to have disrupted the Israeli attack.

Iran had fired barrages of missiles on Israel, in April and on October 1, in retaliation for the Israeli assassination of elite Iranian commanders, as well as Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. The missiles were intercepted with the help of the US and other allies of Washington

A Iraqi Shiite politician close to Iran-backed armed factions said he does not see any Iranian retaliation to the Israeli strikes and that Tehran will seek de-escalation, without giving reasons for Tehran's possible change of course.

“Any Iranian retaliation is unlikely,” he said, adding that unspecified “understandings between Iran and US through regional and international players”, ahead of the US elections.

“The tension has eased, at least at this stage,” he added.