What next for Hamas after killing of 'ultimate leader' Yahya Sinwar?

Senior figures insist fight against Israel in Gaza will go on, but the question of who will be the next leader remains

Hamas must now again choose a new leader, following the killing of Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces in Gaza. AFP

Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza

The day after Israel announced it had killed Hamas leader and reported October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar, the few Hamas officials talking about the future of the militant group vowed that it would fight on.

Hamas will only "grow stronger" even if its leaders are eliminated, said one official. Basem Naim, a Hamas political bureau member in Gaza, was equally dogged, but also frank about the pain and significance of Mr Sinwar’s death.

“Yes, it’s very painful and distressing to lose beloved people, especially extraordinary leaders like ours, but what we are sure of is that we are eventually victorious; this is the outcome for all people who fought for their liberty,” he said on Friday.

No amount of bullish words can mask the fact that the loss of Mr Sinwar puts what remains of Hamas at an extremely difficult crossroads.

First, the group must find a new leader for the second time in a little over two months, after the assassination Mr Sinwar's predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on July 31. Israel is widely held responsible, though it has never confirmed its involvement.

Gaza analyst Aziz Al Masry told The National that Khalil Al Hayya, who led Hamas's ceasefire negotiating team, was “generally expected” to be chosen as the next leader. Zaher Jabarin, Hamas’s leader for the West Bank, would be deputy, he added.

Other possibilities include Khaled Meshaal, who led the Hamas political bureau from 1996 to 2017 and now lives in the Qatari capital Doha, and Mr Sinwar's brother Mohammed, who is considered a hardliner.

Reaching agreement on a candidate will be challenging – after more than a year of fighting in Gaza, the group's organisational and communication structures are in tatters.

“There is limited communication between Hamas’s field operations in northern Gaza, the south and the central region,” Mr Al Masry said. “Now, there is a major divergence in views between the political leadership in Doha and the field leadership in Gaza.”

Only once the group has a new leader can it try and set a direction for the future, but it will be fraught with difficulties, Mr Al Masry added. “Hamas is currently in a critical phase. In the span of two months, two of its political bureau leaders have been assassinated.

"There is growing anger on the streets of Gaza, particularly due to the prolonged war, the genocide, displacement and homelessness. These factors will exert significant pressure on the new political bureau leadership.”

Mr Sinwar’s death also puts Israel, in particular Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at a crossroads. Hamas's future depends in large part what Israel does next.

After months of more and more Israelis viewing the Gaza campaign as a costly stalemate with no strategic direction, Mr Netanyahu can flaunt the biggest military victory in the strip since the war began. He can tell supporters – and there are increasing numbers of them, according to recent polling – that his controversial approach of favouring massive military force over diplomacy to secure Israel’s war goals has paid off.

It is unlikely this formula will work for long. Israeli hostages seized in Hamas's October 7 attacks, whose safety is a political priority for many Israelis, are still languishing in the strip. The many pressure groups, protest blocs and politicians who support their release above all else were already demanding within hours of the news of Mr Sinwar’s death that the government renews efforts to free them.

Hebrew media reported on Friday that Mr Netanyahu would soon convene a security meeting to discuss hostage negotiations in light of Mr Sinwar's killling. The Prime Minister’s office also said that Mr Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden discussed how it might present an opportunity for a hostage deal.

But without a clear Hamas leader and the near total collapse of its command and control and external communications, even beginning such negotiations will be a challenge.

“Hamas is no longer an organisation we can speak with. There is Khaled Meshaal who thinks he’s leading the organisation, but most of its members didn’t want him,” said Amit Assa, a former Israeli security official.

Israeli analyst Shira Efron said she is hearing about a possible pause in fighting for three days to a week to help the Israelis “find who to talk to [in Gaza and Hamas] about this hostage arrangement”.

“Do you speak to Khaled Meshaal? Do you speak to folks in Gaza? Do you let the Israeli negotiating team try to revamp negotiations with mediators? We don’t know where all hostages are and who is with Hamas, Islamic Jihad or a certain clan. Who do they even call if they want amnesty or a cash reward for information about a hostage? This system needs to be created,” she said.

“I hope what I’m hearing about such an initiative involving a lull to see how this military achievement can be leveraged into an agreement about hostages, then even a 'day after' plan for Gaza, will indeed take place.”

Gaza analyst Mustafa Ibrahim said it “seems unlikely that a ceasefire will be announced”.

“How would it happen? Will it be as Netanyahu said with Palestinians surrendering the [Israeli hostages]? Or will it be a full ceasefire and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza? Or will Israel maintain military control over Gaza?”

“Sinwar and Hamas had clear goals – freeing the Palestinian prisoners [held by Israel] – and I don't believe Hamas will back down from these objectives after Sinwar's death, as that would be seen as a defeat for both Hamas and the Palestinian people."

While much remains uncertain about Hamas in the near future, many of the group's leaders have been assassinated throughout its history, a point raised by Basem Naim.

"It seems that Israel believes that killing our leaders means the end of our movement and the struggle of the Palestinian people. They can believe what they want," he said, citing the killings of Hamas founder Ahmed Yasin, co-founder Abdel Aziz Al Rantisi and the first chief of it military wing, Salah Shehade.

"Each time we became stronger and more popular, and these leaders became an icon for future generations to continue the journey towards a free Palestine."

Kobi Michael, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute think tanks in Israel, disagrees, saying the death of Mr Sinwar was “very substantial, very significant".

"In the end, Sinwar was the ultimate leader of Hamas, not only in the Gaza Strip, but he was also elected to replace Haniyeh as the head of the political wing, which means the leader of the entire organisation. So, the organisation, once again lost its head. But what is more crucial than that, it lost its most crucial centre of gravity in the Gaza Strip,” he said.