Iraq’s Kurdistan region prepares for crucial elections amid political divisions and economic crisis

More than 1,190 candidates are vying for places in the 100-seat parliament, with three million people eligible to vote

Election campaign posters in Erbil, in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. The poll has been postponed several times due to disputes between the two main political parties. AFP

Iraqi Kurds in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq will on Sunday vote in long-awaited parliamentary elections, at a time when the stakes are high for a region beset with political infighting and economic hardship.

There are 1,191 candidates vying for places in the 100-seat Kurdistan parliament, including 38 candidates for five minority quota seats, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission said. About three million eligible voters will cast their ballots at 1,400 polling stations, including areas outside the region, the commission added.

Security personnel across the region visited polling stations on Friday morning to cast their ballots in the first round of special voting. More than 215,000 people are eligible to take part.

“Elections are an important milestone in the region’s journey,” Mohamed Al Hassan, head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq, said in a speech broadcast on Thursday night. “It will reinvigorate democracy and inject new ideas into its institutions that will address the people’s concerns. This is all too necessary. The Kurdistan region has been without a parliament for some time. This election is long overdue."

The vote was originally scheduled to take place in October 2022, but it was delayed several times because of disputes between political parties. These were mainly between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and related to a new election law and the region’s electoral commission.

The KDP and PUK agreed to extend the parliament's term for a year so they could continue talks over issues including amending the election law, as well as the sharing of tax and oil revenue. But in May 2023, the Iraq Federal Supreme Court ruled that all decisions made by the regional parliament after its extension were null and void, including a move to reactivate the region’s electoral commission.

In February 2024, the court ruled to reduce the number of seats in parliament from 111 to 100 and ordered that polls were to be overseen by the national electoral commission. The ruling also stipulated that the region was to be divided into four constituencies, instead of the single-constituency system used in previous elections.

The ruling also said the 11 quota seats reserved for ethnic and religious minorities were “unconstitutional” and reduced them to five, for Turkmens, Assyrians, Chaldeans, Syriacs and Armenians.

The election also comes at a critical time for the PUK, which has struggled to reassert itself since internal divisions led to the removal of co-leader Lahur Talabani in 2021. He has now established the People’s Front, which that could take votes from the PUK in Sulaymaniyah. The PUK and the KDP, the ruling parties, also face challenges from historic opposition groups, the Gorran Movement and the New Generation Movement.

Independent political analyst Kadhim Yawar told The National that the situation was unlikely to change significantly because “there are unfavourable and unsatisfactory indications" that are "a source of concern".

“The political situation is still unstable in the region as they [the KDP and PUK] control everything, mainly the security and economy,” he added. “Any violation will lead to disturbances in the political scene, making the formation of the next government extremely difficult."

The traditional parties have struggled to meet the demands of the majority of young people in the region, fuelling a sense of disillusionment and pushing that generation to join hundreds of thousand of migrants seeking a new life, mainly in Europe.

"I am certain many challenges might remain," Mr Al Hassan, an Omani diplomat, said in his speech. "However, Kurdistan is on the right path towards a better future."

Economic woes

In 2003, when the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, oil and gas resources in the Kurdistan region were not yet developed. Significant discoveries had been made, but were left untapped.

After the invasion, the Kurds gained autonomy, formalising a situation that had been a de facto reality since 1992, when Iraqi government forces withdrew from the region after defeat in the 1991 First Gulf War. That autonomy was strengthened and formally recognised by the 2005 Iraqi Constitution.

Since then, the region has been involved in prolonged wrangling with Baghdad over revenue sharing and disputed territory. As Baghdad and Erbil failed to agree on a federal law to govern the oil and gas sector, Kurdish authorities signed dozens of oil and gas deals with foreign companies and countries.

The Kurdistan Regional Government said the constitution gave them the right to sign agreements, without consulting Baghdad. This was disputed by the Iraqi government.

Kurdish authorities passed their own oil and gas law, but in 2022 this was ruled to be unconstitutional by Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court. It also demanded that the region hand over all the industry’s activities to Baghdad.

A year later, the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce told Turkey to halt the flow of about 500,000 barrels of oil a day from the region. About 70,000 barrels came from Baghdad-run fields in the northern province of Kirkuk. The region generates most of its revenue from oil exports through Turkey. This was supplemented by a 12.67 per cent share of the federal budget.

Baghdad and Erbil have agreed on a mechanism of sending loans to pay civil servants and social services as a way to tackle the budget allocation issue, which stipulates that the region is entitled to its share only when it hands over 400,000 barrels of oil a day to Baghdad. As a result, the region’s once-thriving oil industry ground to a halt, leading to job losses and salary cuts, with producers forced to reduce their output.

“We are looking for a political stability after the elections,” Ali Youssif, 34, co-founder of the Levant Line Company for Logistics and Oil Services in Erbil, told The National. “It’s been more than two years there has been no political stability."

Last year, he laid off employees and closed the company's office and warehouse after struggling to pay the rent. With some companies resuming production, selling the majority of the oil to local refineries, Mr Youssif is eager for the situation to improve. “What people are looking for is more stable region. When there is stability there will be a business comeback,” he said.