Sudan's army on a multifront offensive but road to victory long and costly, analysts warn

Regaining territory in the capital Khartoum poses most daunting task to Al Burhan's forces

Smoke rising during clashes between the RSF and the army in Khartoum, where the warring parties are locked in battle. Reuters

Sudan’s army is on the offensive on several fronts, wresting back territory from its civil war rival the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces RSF, but analysts warn the main battle for the sprawling capital Khartoum could prove long and costly.

The army, led by Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, has suffered a string of defeats since the outbreak of the war in April 2023, with the RSF occupying most of the capital, much of the western Darfur region and parts of Kordofan in the south-west. The RSF also controls parts of the Al Jazira region south of the capital, as well as parts of Blue Nile province further south.

“The army has regained the initiative and, instead of defending its positions, is now deployed and attacking in large areas,” said Sudanese military analyst Omar Arbab. “It’s facing a difficult task in Khartoum because of the huge size of the three cities”, Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri, that make up the greater capital area, he said.

“RSF snipers are also a serious problem. It will be a long and costly battle in a large city that will force the army to stretch its men thin.”

The paramilitary, led by Gen Al Burhan’s former ally Gen Mohamed Dagalo, controls large sections of the armed forces’ headquarters in central Khartoum, the nearby Nile-side presidential palace and the capital’s only international airport. Its fighters are also besieging several key army bases there.

The army began its latest offensive last month, building on battlefield gains it made earlier in the year in Omdurman. Army troops have also regained control of a key Nile bridge in the capital and established a foothold in Al Muqran, near the spot where the Blue and White Nile meet.

The army, according to analysts and witnesses in the capital, is edging towards the heart of Khartoum, with the strategic Nile Street that runs alongside the Blue Nile and the presidential palace further south now within striking distance.

The army is also advancing towards RSF positions in Al Jazira, where last week it regained control of the Moya Mountain area and is now pushing towards the city of Sinnar, which the paramilitary seized in the summer, according to the witnesses and analysts.

Fighting around the city of El Fasher in northern Darfur continues, with neither side able to gain an advantage, they said, but with the RSF losing scores of fighters to air strikes by the army.

The army’s recent successes, said the analysts, are partially due to the depletion of manpower in the RSF after 18 months of relentless bombardment by the army’s warplanes, including drones. The army is also exploiting the poor communication between the RSF’s leadership and its field units, according to former army general Moatasam Al Hassan.

“The RSF fighters are mostly undisciplined, focusing more on war spoils than fighting. The army has also been using revenue from gold mining in areas under its control to finance arms purchases abroad,” Gen Al Hassan told The National.

He pointed out, however, that while the RSF has been significantly weakened, it is nowhere near total and irreversible defeat.

“It’s clear that it has been weakened by its recent losses in Khartoum and El Fasher but that does not mean the end of the Rapid Support Forces,” he added.

The army’s offensive indicates that Gen Al Burhan intends to continue fighting until his troops gain a clear edge over the RSF, something that will in turn give him a better negotiating position if he decides to accept invitations from mediators such as Saudi Arabia and the US to negotiate an end to the war.

The Sudan conflict has to date killed tens of thousands and devastated the country’s infrastructure. It has also left about 25 million people – more than half the population – facing acute hunger and created the world’s biggest displacement problem. Nearly eight million people have fled their homes since the war began, joining another three million who were displaced during previous bouts of strife in Sudan.

Both parties are suspected of committing war crimes, according to assessments by international rights groups. While the army is accused of killing thousands in air strikes targeting RSF positions in densely populated areas, the RSF is accused of ethnic cleansing in Darfur, torture, arbitrary detentions and sexual assaults.