Israel-Gaza war death toll exceeds 120,000 if indirect causes are included, study finds

Brown University says US has spent $22.76bn on military aid to Israel for war in Gaza and Middle East

Pro-Palestine protesters hold a rally outside the White House in Washington on June 8. Bloomberg

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More than 121,000 people are believed to have died directly or indirectly in the war between Israel and Hamas, an estimate by Brown University released on Monday found, as the region marked a year since the Hamas-led October 7 attacks on Israel.

The Ivy League research university's Cost of War project at its Watson Institute said that more than 53,887 direct deaths have been recorded from October 7, 2023, to October 1 this year in Israel, Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

That tally includes fatalities from the Hamas attacks in Israel, and Israeli and Palestinian deaths in the occupied Palestinian territories after Israel launched military operations against Hamas, resulting in civilian and fighters' deaths.

It also adds in 10,000 Palestinians missing or estimated dead under rubble, quoting a UN Humanitarian Affairs Office estimate from this September.

“Counting war deaths of any kind – direct or indirect – is notoriously difficult,” the report said, recognising that the UN numbers the project referred to “have been contested”.

“Mortality data from war zones is often missing, unreliable or hard to access, and can be influenced by political orientations," it said,

The project tallied more than 67,413 indirect deaths in Gaza and the West Bank, with most fatalities due to starvation. The UN has warned of famine-like conditions in parts of Gaza, while independent special rapporteurs say Israel has conducted an “intentional and targeted starvation campaign against the Palestinian people”.

The Cost of War team tallied a total of 121,300 deaths in Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.

“In addition to killing people directly through traumatic injuries, wars cause 'indirect deaths' by destroying, damaging, or causing deterioration of economic, social, psychological and health conditions,” the report said.

The tally is lower than the July estimate by the Lancet medical journal of 186,000 direct and indirect deaths from Israel's military operations in Gaza since October 7.

The Brown University report said that it did not include deaths recorded in Lebanon and Yemen, suggesting that the war's effect could be wider than its estimate.

“While it will take years to assess the full extent of these population-level health effects, they will inevitably lead to far higher numbers of deaths than direct violence,” it said.

The Cost of War project also issued a report on economic costs for US support of Israel, finding that President Joe Biden's administration “has spent at least $22.76 billion on military aid to Israel and related US operations in the region” in one year.

It said the “estimate is conservative” because there are economic costs, security assistance for Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and future spending not yet factored in.

“Altogether, Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US aid since World War Two,” the report said. “Even so, the amount of military assistance approved during this past year – $17.9 billion – is substantially more than in any other year since the US began granting military aid, specifically, to Israel in 1959.”

Washington's staunch support for Israel has come under fire by Democratic leaders, American voters and protesters calling for an arms embargo against Israel.

Some say reported human rights breaches by Israel should lead to Washington halting weapons shipments and military assistance to Israel, but the Biden administration has asserted there is not enough evidence.

The Cost of War project also estimated that the US has spent $4.86 billion on defensive and offensive operations against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, despite failing to stem attacks by the Iran-backed militants.