Israeli attack on Iran risks prolonged conflict marked by missile strikes and aerial battles

Israel has threatened to retaliate after the major missile barrage fired by Tehran

Israeli F-16 fighter jets at an airbase in the south of the country. Military aircraft could play a key role in an attack on Iran. Reuters

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The Middle East is bracing for Israel to launch strikes on Iran after Tehran fired about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel last Tuesday.

Experts have told The National that a large-scale Israeli attack could lead to prolonged conflict between the countries, due to the depth of Iran’s defences. Iran also has scores of fighter jets that could attempt to intercept Israeli aircraft, potentially leading to one of the largest air battles since 1982, when about 200 Israeli and Syrian jets fought in the skies over Lebanon and Syria.

Experts said an Israeli attack could lead to a lengthy military operation. “Israeli air commanders will have two choices, if they decide to do large-scale air attacks on the one hand, or mount some kind of longer air campaign," says Thomas Withington, an independent expert and consultant on electronic warfare.

"The first choice is, do we do a lot of offensive counter air defence preparation beforehand? So what you saw Nato doing in the Balkans, what you saw the US-led coalition doing in Iraq, which is effectively to wipe out Iranian air defences to the fullest extent possible, to get air superiority with a view to then getting air supremacy.

"But that may take a long time. It took the US a good few weeks until they could declare air superiority of Iraq. The Israelis would face the same concern. It's going to be a heavily contested air environment."

Mr Withington says Israel would be at risk of losing aircraft in this scenario despite their advantage in technology. "They're not ten-foot tall," he says.

Threats to nuclear sites

For years, analysts said Israel might launch strikes to damage Iran’s nuclear programme, after warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency that Tehran was working on a nuclear weapon.

The obvious way to attack Iranian sites would be by air – a 4,000km round trip. Iran lacks a modern air force to defend against such a strike, which is one reason why it developed an estimated arsenal of 3,000 ballistic missiles.

But air strikes are risky. Experts said Israel lacked the latest aerial refuelling tankers, raising doubts about how many bombers could be used in a long-range mission to damage targets that are underground and well defended.

In the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, typical US Air Force F-15 fighter-bomber missions lasted between seven and eight hours. But they could run longer than 12 hours, placing a strain on pilots and equipment. Iran also bristles with air defences, including the advanced S-300 missile system.

As a result, experts have speculated about other means of attack, including launching missiles from Israel’s small fleet of submarines, or carrying out commando raids inside Iran. Israel has a long history of attacking faraway targets, including bombing attacks on the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah in July, a 4,700km round trip, using modified stealth F-35Is and F-15I jets.

That is farther than the distance that would need to be covered to hit Iran, but the attack on Yemen benefitted from a US-UK mission to stop the Red Sea blockade that weakened Houthi rebel air defences. The targets were also “soft”, including oil depots and cranes, which would not be the case in an Israeli attack on Iran.

Launching such an attack could involve destroying mobile air defences that could “hide” or go dark by switching off radars and communications, with Israel required to dropping a lot of bombs on a single target, such as underground nuclear sites. Iranian jets, while obsolete, could complicate such a mission, adding hours to the Israeli operation.

That would increase the risk of Israeli aircraft being attacked by the S-300 air defence systems, purchased from Russia and delivered in 2016. Israeli aircraft would need to keep refuelling while in the air.

“The Israelis might opt for a short sharp shock to the Iranians. The longer you stay and the more complicated the plan, the more things can go wrong," said Robert Dalsjo, senior analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency. "That said, they might go for a double tap in that first strike against air defence targets and then go for the real targets, and perhaps using F15s, which can carry a lot more ordinance than stealthy F35s.

"So a strike by the F-35s to take out air defence radars and air defence installations, and then the second wave after that to take out the real targets."

The S-300PMU-2 (Iran’s variant of the systems) is reportedly able to shoot down ballistic missiles and jets at a range of up to 200km. Iran also has the Bavar-373 air defence system, which it has said is more powerful than the S-300, and older S-200s, with a reported range of 300km.

They cannot be moved easily, making them vulnerable, but the S-200 shot down an Israeli F-16 in Syria in 2018, after dozens of missiles were fired.

A key problem with claims about the range of the S-300 is that, in April, Israeli retaliation for an initial Iranian ballistic missile attack involved the destruction of a unit’s 30N6E2 radar system. The attack, one expert told The National, relied on an air-launched ballistic missile fired outside Iran’s airspace, something the S-300 is meant to be able to defend against.

Experts say the S-300 and other air defence systems are best used in tandem with dedicated Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) radar planes, which help extend their range. Iran's only AWACS aircraft crashed in 2009.

Decoy missiles and jamming

“Israeli air-launched missiles are capable systems and Israel has defeated S-300 systems in Syria,” said John Parachini, senior defence researcher at the US Rand think tank. "Open reporting indicated that the Israelis fired decoys first and followed with lethal missiles to take out the air defence, so they could strike Hezbollah weapons in storage or transport."

Along with Israel's Advanced Tactical Air-Launched Decoys - drones that appear on radar as fighter-bombers - Iranian air defence operators could face the challenge of tackling so-called anti-radiation missiles, which seek out enemy radar emissions and destroy air defences. The AGM-88 HARM can lock on to the location of the system, even if it has been switched off in self-defence.

“The performance of the S-300 for Ukraine and Russia has proven to be mixed and I think the same can be expected for Iran,” Mr Parachini added. "Operating air defence systems requires considerable training and not all militaries engage in rigorous and repeated training such that human moves are nearly automatic. You may recall that an Iranian air defence unit mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner with SA-15 or Tor system."

F-35s will be a key part of any Israeli raid on Iran, with the aircraft difficult to detect using radar. However, Iran operates the Rezonans-NE very high frequency radar system, which it claims can detect stealth aircraft.

Iran also has the IL222M Avtobaza-M electronic warfare system, which can detect signals emitted by enemy aircraft, which is useful for co-ordinating attacks by more capable systems such as the S-300.

All of these defences can be “jammed” by powerful radio waves. Modern electronic warfare capabilities, available to Israel through its co-operation with US defence companies, are now on most of the country's aircraft through Active Electronically Scanned Array radars, which can focus beams of energy to jam enemy radars.

“The F35 has probably got the most advanced electronic warfare system currently flying,” Mr Withington said. “Israelis have been flying against the kind of air defence systems that the Iranians have for donkey's years, since the 1967 war, and they've been flying against those in Syria, too. On top of that, they will also be getting the signals intelligence, particularly electronic intelligence and data that the US and allies are collecting in Ukraine, and that's going to be flowing back for Israeli use."