Killing of Hassan Nasrallah deals blow to Hezbollah's regional role

Leader transformed militant group into a transnational power, but what happens next is difficult to predict

An Iranian demonstrator holds up a poster of Hassan Nasrallah at a rally supporting Hezbollah in Tehran. AP

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Hezbollah's perceived aura of invincibility began to fracture as Israel systematically eliminated commander after commander over recent weeks. However, the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, who had built the group into a transnational power, marks a significant blow to Iran's regional influence.

Since war broke out in Gaza in October, Israel has killed dozens of Hezbollah commanders in targeted strikes in Lebanon and Syria at a rate widely seen as too punishing for the group to replace and regroup effectively. Hezbollah's communications were also compromised after Israel sabotaged and blew up thousands of the group's pagers and walkie talkies this month.

Many of the slain commanders played a central role in establishing Iranian spheres of control in Syria and maintained close connections to Palestinian group Hamas and other militias in Iraq and Yemen.

Hezbollah has allegedly been involved in the formation of drug networks in Syria, specialising in the production of Captagon, an amphetamine. These operations are claimed to have led to smuggling routes into Jordan, which serves as a transit point for the drug trade to the Arabian Peninsula.

Regional security officials say the trade is worth several billion dollars a year, with Hezbollah, along with Syrian military divisions and other groups backed by Iran, being the primary beneficiaries.

“The Godfather is dead,” Saud Sharafat, a former brigadier general in Jordanian Intelligence, told The National. “Without Nasrallah, Hezbollah is looking at a period of retrenchment. Whatever is left of its commanders in Syria and in other areas will be going back to Lebanon to support the base.”

Mr Sharafat, who heads the Shorufat Centre for Globalisation and Terrorism Studies in Amman, said that without Mr Nasrallah and the other commanders killed by Israel in recent weeks, the Hezbollah-linked militants in Syria will not be able to operate as smoothly as before.

“They held all the names and other secrets that held the network together,” Mr Sharafat said.

When Nasrallah became the head of Hezbollah more than three decades ago, the group portrayed itself as a Lebanese liberation movement aimed at ousting Israel from a zone it had carved up with local allies from south Lebanon. This was in contrast to its main Shiite rival, the Amal group, which had been tainted with corruption since the disappearance of its founder, Imam Musa Sadr, in Libya in 1978.

But since Israel withdrew from south Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah shifted its focus to expanding its domestic constituency and eliminating threats that stood in its way of becoming the dominant power in Lebanese politics.

Under Nasrallah, Hezbollah played a crucial role in helping Syrian President Bashar Al Assad counter the mainly Sunni revolt against his rule in 2011. This resulted in the group becoming a regional military force, specialising in the training of other groups allied to Iran, all while portraying Hezbollah as a champion of the Palestinian cause.

Ultimately, the regional power Nasrallah had helped build is what brought his own demise.

A senior western diplomat specialising in the Middle East explained that by attacking Israel on October 7, Hamas, another Iranian ally, forced Mr Nasrallah's hand, Hezbollah felt compelled to honour its pledge of support for the Palestinian cause, at least symbolically, by launching missile and drone attacks against Israel.

These attacks forced thousands of Israelis to flee their homes in the northern border region with Lebanon. In response, Israel launched strikes on towns in southern Lebanon and carried out targeted assassinations that gradually weakened Hezbollah’s leadership, culminating in the strike that killed Mr Nasrallah in southern Beirut on Friday.

Mr Nasrallah had used up much of Hezbollah's strength to destroy the Syrian opposition and consolidate Iranian influence in Syria, the diplomat said, suggesting he may have overstretched the group in doing so.

While Israel has successfully attacked Hezbollah members and its communications, the diplomat said it was unlikely that the group would end with Mr Nasrallah, predicting that the remaining senior members would direct their efforts towards the group's survival, capitalising on its regional strength.

For all of Mr Nasrallah's lifetime efforts, the regional tempo since October 7 has been set by Hamas and by Israel, not by him. “It is an ironic ending,” the diplomat said.