Deterrence and attrition shape continuing Israel-Hezbollah conflict

The protracted war shows how the measures are failing to discourage aggression, leading to heightened border tensions

Hezbollah's response to attacks on its members within Israel was smaller than expected. AFP

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The continuing cross-border conflict between Israel and Lebanon’s armed Hezbollah party is “just another episode” in a lengthy war of attrition as long as a ceasefire in Gaza remains elusive, analysts said.

“Hezbollah lost deterrence” after its response to Israel’s assassination of senior commander Fouad Shukr in July, said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Centre.

Israel’s assassination of Shukr in the densely populated Beirut suburb of Dahieh also killed five civilians and an Iranian military commander. It was the second such targeted killing in Dahieh, a densely populated southern suburb of Beirut – the first being the assassination of Hamas deputy leader Saleh Al Arouri in January.

A day after Mr Shukr’s killing, Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. The back-to-back assassinations elicited fears that regional war would erupt as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed retaliation that would usher in a “new phase” of the multifront conflict with Israel that would make it “weep” for its actions, and Iran also promised a major retaliation.

The international community immediately gathered to prevent war. A flurry of diplomatic initiatives took place in the background while the US sent air carriers and warships to the Middle East in preparation for a major escalation.

So far, Israel’s numerous assassinations of IRGC commanders, senior Hezbollah commanders, and Hamas leaders since October have been met by Iran and Hezbollah with calculated restraint. Iran has yet to reply, but when Hezbollah retaliated against Mr Shukr’s assassination in late August, it was by launching a large-scale attack of over 320 Katyusha rockets at 11 Israeli military sites.

Although Hezbollah has repeatedly assured that it is not seeking an all-out war, taking pains to maintain a contained conflict with Israel “and paying a heavy price in the process”, said Mr Hage Ali, adding the group’s response to Mr Shukr’s death remained a far cry from public expectation.

As a result, Hezbollah has ultimately failed to deter Israel from assassinating high-value targets or otherwise escalating the conflict, Mr Hage Ali explained.

Earlier this week, two civilians – one of whom was a contractor for the UN Peacekeeping Force in Lebanon – were killed in an Israeli strike on their vehicle as it drove through the southern Lebanese town of Naqoura. The Israeli military did not comment on the attack.

But the incident was a reminder to Lebanese and Israeli residents alike that the conflict, although contained, remains far from over, and that tens of thousands of displaced people on either side of the border would not be returning home anytime soon.

It was also a reminder that “right now this war is not at all confined or limited on Israel’s side, it’s only confined on Hezbollah’s side”, according to Mr Hage Ali. “Strategically, Hezbollah has to establish some form of deterrence before the war ends. But the timing is not on their side yet.”

But Joseph Bahout, director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, says that although the Lebanese party may have lost the ability to deter Israel in the short run, they are playing a “long game of attrition”.

“We are in a war of attrition. It’s a very long one playing across many intertwined but separate theatres,” he said. “The [conflict on the Lebanon-Israel front] is oscillating between high and low heat but with time the risk of slipping towards a global confrontation is ever present.

“Right now Hezbollah doesn't want to widen war. They responded in a way that was calibrated so that both parties were happy with the response.”

Mr Bahout said both Hezbollah and Israel were satisfied with the episode’s end – Hezbollah, because it implemented its anticipated retaliation, and Israel, because it would not have to escalate further in response to Hezbollah’s retaliation.

“The people who understand military strategy know that a balance is still there. For Israel it won't be an easy war with Lebanon,” he said. Israel has to consider numerous factors. “There is a crisis in its military class, and a large debate around the country’s priorities: freeing the hostages, the continuing war and occupation of Gaza, the front against Hezbollah in northern Israel, and Iran.”

“So the question is: How much does [Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu want to widen the war until he gets to Iran, and how willing are the Americans willing to follow along and go into an issue that is not only in south Lebanon and Gaza but the entire region?” Mr Bahout said.

For now, Hezbollah’s retaliation to Mr Shukr’s assassination has “concluded this episode. Now we move on to the next season.”