Iraqi militias co-ordinating retaliatory attacks with allies after truce with US ends

The Iran-backed armed groups have warned that 'all options are available' to target US bases inside Iraq

A protester waves the flag of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, outside the US embassy in Baghdad. Reuters

Iran-backed armed factions in Iraq have resumed co-ordinating attacks against US and Israeli targets in the Middle East after they ended a truce with US troops, further driving the region towards a major escalation, sources told The National on Wednesday.

The attacks are meant to be part of regional retaliatory operations by those armed factions in response to the killing of Fouad Shukr, the top military commander of the Lebanese group Hezbollah in Beirut, and the assassination of Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July, the sources explained. Iran blames Israel for the assassination and has vowed to respond.

“The collapse of the truce now means, in practice, that the retaliation by the axis of resistance will be co-ordinated with all its parties, including the Iraqi factions, regardless of the form of this response,” explained a militia leader.

“We have resumed co-ordinating our actions. We won't confirm or deny that an imminent attack would take place by the factions, which is a matter left to the field commanders,” added the source.

On Tuesday, a high-ranking member of one of the groups said that the armed factions had ended the truce that was meant to give the Iraqi government time to negotiate the withdrawal of US troops from the country. They started considering the fate of the truce following the killing of at least four fighters in a US strike on a Popular Mobilisation Forces' base in Babil province, south of Baghdad, last month.

“The resistance factions in Iraq ended this truce and therefore all options are available to the resistance forces to target all US bases inside Iraq,” Haider Al Lami, a member of the political council of Al Nujaba Movement in Iraq, affirmed on Tuesday, adding there was “procrastination and stalling” from the American side during talks with the Iraqi government on the withdrawal of troops.

Much like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, the Iraqi armed factions are part of the Axis of Resistance, an anti-Israel political and military coalition in the Middle East led by Tehran. Since the war in Gaza started in October, the axis has operated through a daily co-ordination process and under joint command, mainly focused on picking up targets and the timing of attacks against Israel in support of Hamas in the Palestinian territory.

Increase in attacks

However, the Iraqi militias agreed to an unofficial truce early this year, which has generally held despite sporadic attacks on US troops. The lull was aimed at preventing escalation after the killing of three US soldiers at the Iraq-Jordan border and to allow scope for negotiations around the departure of US troops from Iraq.

Calls for an end to the truce were raised after the members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces's 47th Brigade were killed in the US strike on the base in Babil province, south of Baghdad, on July 30. The PMF, an umbrella term for groups of armed fighters that are officially part of the Iraqi security forces, confirmed members of its 47th Brigade had been killed in an attack carried out “by missiles fired from drones”.

The US said it carried out what it described as a “self-defence air strike” on fighters who were trying to launch drones that were deemed a threat to US and allied troops. About 2,500 US troops are stationed in Iraq as part of the international coalition against ISIS.

There has been a significant push by Baghdad and the Iran-backed factions for the coalition to leave Iraq. The Iraqi and US governments held talks in Washington, where they put the final touches on a withdrawal deal and a post-departure security relationship.

“The position of the Iraqi factions has now become clearer that the truce has effectively ended, as the US continues the process of procrastination,” a second militias commander told The National on Wednesday.

The source claimed that “over the past few days, US forces have been carrying out movements and transfers of forces and military equipment in Iraq and Syria, in preparation for engagement in any battle that might break out, in the event that Iran and the axis of resistance carry out any attack targeting Israel to avenge Haniyeh and Shukr”.

A senior Iraqi army official said he was wary of announcements or threats by the armed groups to end the truce, and that this would not necessarily lead to a significant increase in attacks. Announcing the end of the truce “is a way of pressuring the US in front of the world”, stressed the official.

Political analyst Ihsan Al Shammari sees that “resuming attacks will create significant embarrassment for the official and political Iraq which leans towards de-escalation and avoiding dragging the country into war”.

“There will be grave consequences and confusion in the security file, especially if these attacks are resumed on a large scale and on a daily basis,” Mr Al Shammari, a Professor of Public Policy who leads the Iraqi Political Thinking Centre think tank in Baghdad, told The National.

“If there will be a wide-scale confrontations, these factions will not hesitate to launch large-scale attacks not only against US bases but also could reach even the [US] embassy,” Prof Al Shammari added.