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US envoy Amos Hochstein is set to visit Israel and Lebanon in a last-minute effort to prevent a regional war, as Israel braces for a possible large-scale counterstrike by Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Israeli media reported that Mr Hochstein was visiting Israel on Tuesday. A Lebanese political source told The National he will then visit Beirut on Thursday to meet officials and try to prevent the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah at the border from escalating into a full-blown war.
“It seems the US wants to prepare the ground for successful negotiations,” the source said.
Mr Hochstein's trip comes as mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar have called on Israel and Hamas to meet on August 15 to resume ceasefire talks and reach a hostage release deal.
“This is what the US wishes but what guarantees do they have from the Israelis? We will see,” the source added.
Mr Hochstein is one of the several senior Biden administration officials being sent this week to the Middle East, as the US is continuing to boost its military presence in the region amid peaking tensions. William J. Burns, the CIA director, is travelling to Qatar and Brett McGurk, Mr Biden’s Middle East co-ordinator, is heading to Egypt and Qatar.
The Middle East has been bracing for a potential escalation since the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which was blamed on Israel, and of Fouad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, in Beirut nearly two weeks ago. Both Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful proxy, and Tehran have vowed retaliation, while maintaining they are not seeking an all-out war.
Lebanese officials previously told The National that western mediators had indirectly offered incentives to fix Lebanon's political and financial crisis in exchange for a limited Hezbollah response.
Backchannel diplomacy
Western diplomats have launched concerted efforts to defuse tensions in the region. But border clashes between Hezbollah and Israel have gradually intensified, with the armed group escalating attacks and reaching new Israeli towns and military bases, further testing Israel's Iron Dome missile defence system. The group has already paid a heavy price, with about 400 fighters killed since October – more than during the 2006 war, when 250 fighters were estimated to have been killed.
In the past two weeks, backchannel diplomacy has faced even greater obstacles.
Pro-Hezbollah media said Mr Hochstein is visiting Beirut to send “additional messages of intimidation” in his fifth trip to the region since October, labelling him a “partner” in the killing of Mr Shukr.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has pledged “severe punishment” for those responsible for assassination on Iranian soil, while Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said he would avenge Mr Shukr’s death “whatever the consequences”. But neither Iran nor Hezbollah have clarified the nature or timing of their retaliation. Mr Nasrallah said the wait is “part of the punishment”. Yet several statements suggest retaliatory attacks could happen this week should diplomatic efforts fail.
On Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the US was prepared for what could be significant attacks by Iran and its proxies in the Middle East. The US shares Israel’s concerns about a possible Iranian attack and President Joe Biden is confident his military has the capability to help defend Israel, he said.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Foreign Ministry have dismissed numerous European calls for restraint as fears grow that Tehran will launch an attack on Israel.
The UK, France and Germany released a statement calling for restraint on Sunday, saying an attack would ruin any possibility of regional peace and stability. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani called the statement “impudent” and said Tehran was determined to “deter Israel”. European nations must stand up “once and for all” against the war in Gaza, he said.
Mr Pezeshkian told British Prime Minister Keir Starmer he considers an attack on Israel “a solution to stop crime and aggression”, the state-run Irna news agency reported.
Thursday talks
Meanwhile, Hamas informed mediators on Thursday that it is “insisting on boycotting” ceasefire talks planned for this week, sources said, adding that there is “little hope” for a breakthrough.
“Hamas told mediators today it is still insisting on its position not to attend the talks and to instead implement what has been agreed on last month. Their argument is that new talks mean more time for Israel to bomb Gaza,” a Palestinian political source close to the negotiations told The National.
“The Israeli PM is putting forward new conditions and these talks are giving a platform to ask for more,” added the source.
According to another source involved in the negotiations, there's “little hope for a breakthrough to emerge from this week's talks, with Israel's continuing insistence on prosecuting the war until Hamas's demise, which is undermining the efforts of mediators”.
A ceasefire has been linked in the last few days to Iran and Hezbollah's retaliation against Israel for the killing of Hamas's chief and a top military commander.
Diplomatic sources said that reaching a deal could “limit” the avowed response and diffuse regional tensions.
Sources told The National that the information available to the Egyptian and Qatari mediators is that Iran and its proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen will most likely jointly attack Israel if this round of talks fails to make any tangible progress.