Efforts to mediate between Syria's Assad and Turkey's Erdogan facing hurdles

Iraqi Prime Minister started the diplomatic move following an April meeting with Erdogan in Baghdad, sources say

This is the latest diplomatic move in efforts backed by US opponents to re-establish ties between Ankara and Damascus. Reuters / AFP

An Iraqi drive supported by Iran for a rapprochement between President Bashar Al Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing hurdles over how to deal with a Kurdish militia and the return of masses of refugees to the country, a Syrian source briefed by Turkish intelligence told The National.

It is the latest diplomatic move in efforts backed by US opponents to re-establish ties between Ankara and Damascus. Their forces, and militia allies, have fought each other in the course of the Syrian civil war as the country fragmented into zones controlled by Turkey, Iran, America and Russia.

An Iraqi Foreign Ministry official told The National that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani has been in contact with both men in “mediation efforts that has been warmly welcomed” by the two.

He ruled out a presidential-level meeting but said a meeting between Turkish and Syrian officials “could be [occurring] very soon” in Baghdad.

Relations between Mr Erdogan and Mr Assad deteriorated after a peaceful pro-democracy revolt started in southern Syria in March 2011. The protest movement soon spread and demanded the removal of the president. Security forces suppressed the demonstrations, and the conflict later turned into a full civil war.

A rapprochement, however, would undermine Washington's position in Syria, where it is the ultimate protector of anti-Turkish Kurdish militia, concentrated in areas near the Euphrates River Basin that contain most of Syria's oilfields.

Mr Al Sudani began the diplomatic quest, including restoration of diplomatic missions between Damascus and Ankara, after a meeting with Mr Erdogan in Baghdad in late April, said the source, who is a member of the Syrian opposition.

Mr Erdogan discussed Turkish military operations against the Iraq-based Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the source said.

The PKK's sister militia, the People Protection Units (YPG), operates in Syria with US support.

Ankara regards the expansion of the two Kurdish groups in Syria during the last decade as one of the gravest threats to its security.

“Erdogan agreed to go with the Iraqi request to try to solve the problems with Assad, knowing that Iran is behind it,” the source said.

Mr Erdogan, the source said, accepted a proposal put forth by Iraqi officials on behalf of Iran to open a crossing for goods between the Turkish zone of control in Syria and areas under the control of Mr Al Assad.

The crossing, near the Al Bab area in northern Syria, opened last month, according to a resident in the area.

At the same time, Turkish officials have demanded that the Syrian military carries out offensive actions against the YPG.

Damascus and the YPG have largely cohabitated in the last decade, with regime forces granted freedom to operate in urban centres controlled by the YPG.

“The Turkish view is that Assad wants all the advantages of rehabilitation without doing anything to earn it,” the source said.

“He also does not want to confront the United States in any serious way.”

Another issue of contention has been the safe return of refugees to Syria, the source said.

Over the past five years, Turkey has established what it considers safe zones inside Syria, to where it had expelled thousands of Syrian refugees who had sought safety in the country.

It also wants to see Syrian refugees return to areas under the Syrian government's control, but has not received satisfactory guarantees from the Syrian authorities that they will not be persecuted or subjected to violence, the source explained.

Turkey joined Arab countries in backing Sunni rebel groups fighting against the ruling elite, who are dominated by Mr Assad's minority Alawite sect. The 2015 Russian intervention reversed most of the advances made by the rebels, and restored large swathes of Syria to the central authorities.

But in the first quarter of 2020, Turkey and Russia almost came to war in Syria, after Turkey repulsed a Russian-supported offensive by the Syrian military and pro-Iranian militias against an opposition stronghold in Idlib province, which forms part of the Turkish zone in Syria.

A deal between President Vladimir Putin and Mr Erdogan averted a direct war between the two powers. Since then, Russia has been trying to mend ties between the two neighbouring leaders.

The source said a ministerial level meeting could still take place in the next few weeks in Baghdad, unless it is upstaged by continuing Russian efforts for Mr Al Assad and Mr Erdogan to meet face to face.

There has been some Turkish media reports that the two men could meet at the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, which will be attended by Vladimir Putin.

A senior Iraqi official said there was “serious and active work going on over the issue of Syria, and there are positive signs,” but declined to elaborate.

Lizzie Porter reported from Istanbul