Why Israeli court ruling on ultra-Orthodox conscription threatens Netanyahu

In a landmark decision, Supreme Court ruled that men from the Haredi community must serve in the military

Religious parties could leave Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, leading to the collapse of the government. Reuters

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fragile coalition took another hit on Tuesday when Israel’s highest court ruled unanimously that ultra-Orthodox men would no longer be exempt from military service, upending decades of precedent.

The Supreme Court ruling, which could rankle key allies of the PM, comes as Israel stands on the brink of a two-front war.

More than eight months of fighting in Gaza could potentially be joined by a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Fighting on two fronts would require tens of thousands more soldiers.

Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party holds 32 seats in the Knesset. But the Prime Minister’s government relies on the support of a patchwork of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties to form a ruling coalition.

Those parties include Shas and United Torah Judaism, which oppose the change. If men from the ultra-Orthodox – also known as Haredi – community are conscripted, as the court has ruled, the religious parties could leave the coalition and collapse the government.

“If I had to guess, at a certain point, they're going to leave the coalition,’ said Rabbi Nechemia Steinberger, head of the Haredi programme and The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Mr Steinberger believes the ultra-Orthodox members of the Knesset may feel that it is better to leave than be a part of a government that forces their people to join the military.

“Part of what disturbs the Haredi community is that the Jewish state of Israel took a stand and a declaration that we do not appreciate and we do not care about the people who are keeping the original Jewish lifestyle,” Mr Steinberger told The National.

“That is the feeling of people, and that's something that they are going to protest against.”

For decades, the ultra-Orthodox have for the most part been exempt from military service, which otherwise is mandatory for Israelis.

The community believes that they are upholding original Jewish values.

“They say, ‘we are holding the spirit of the Jewish people, we've been doing this for 2000 years',” Mr Steinberger said.

While this has long been a contentious issue, the war in Gaza has turned it into a flashpoint in a society still reeling from the events of October 7 and very much on a war footing.

There is a feeling among the general public that they and their loved ones have been fighting, bleeding and dying for the state, while the ultra-Orthodox have not shared the same burden.

“Burden in terms of deaths and injuries and funerals and tragedies, and a sense of we are putting our lives on the line and your group is completely avoiding national responsibility. And it has gone past any red line,” said Gerald Steinberg, a professor of politics at Bar Ilan University.

There are more than 60,000 ultra-Orthodox men of military age – a significant number in a country of just 9.5 million people.

Israel’s attorney general called on the military to immediately draft 3,000 students from yeshiva traditional Jewish educational institutions, a relatively small percentage of those eligible.

“From what I understand, this is a number probably the Haredi parties are going to be able to live with,” said Mr Steinberger from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

The fact that not all eligible men will be drafted immediately may buy this historically right-wing government some time, but the issue will remain pressing and could still cause irrevocable damage to the coalition.

Mr Netanyahu is already Israel’s longest-serving leader. He is a political survivor, who throughout his career has demonstrated an uncanny ability to retain power and outmanoeuvre his opponents and allies.

While once a political moderate, he has steered farther and farther right in recent years, in an effort to maintain power.

“He is a very strategic thinker,” Mr Steinberg told The National. ”

He always has been and he also knows how to use power, and that [has] both positive and negative implications, but also he has actually consistently benefitted from the ineptness and the overreach of his opponents.”

Mr Steinberg believes that even though the court’s ruling poses a serious “threat to the coalition”, Mr Netanyahu remains very much in charge and at the top of the political hierarchy.

“There is no alternative out there to Netanyahu,” he said.

“There is no personality that is seen as credible in what is Israel's most critical time when leadership is most essential.”