Ukraine aims to replace Russian grain imports in Syria

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is increasing efforts to supply food to Damascus and enhance diplomatic ties

An agricultural worker loads wheat from a combine into a lorry during harvest in Kharkiv region, Ukraine on July 6, 2024. Reuters

Ukraine is capitalising on one of its greatest assets – grain exports – to take a diplomatic foothold in Syria, a longtime ally of Russia, as Damascus seeks urgent supplies for its granaries.

As the US introduced sanctions waivers allowing deals with Syria's governing institutions, Maher Khalil Al Hasan, the country's new Minister of Internal Trade and Consumer Protection, said it had only enough wheat and fuel to last a few months. He said the country must make new import deals but only after a shift in the sanctions regime.

With Russia's role in Syria increasingly uncertain, the opportunity is there for Ukraine to increase its presence in the Syrian market.

Russia announced in mid-December that it would suspend wheat exports to Damascus, estimated at 1.5 million tonnes a year. The decision was a result of uncertainties about payments after Russia's ally, Bashar Al Assad gave up the Syrian presidency and fled to Moscow after an insurgent takeover.

“Grain donations have become part of Ukraine's strategic toolkit – a calling card,” Ivan Ulises Kentros Klyszcz, a research fellow at Estonia’s International Centre for Defence and Security, told The National. “And for good reason because Ukraine is a major provider of agricultural products, of wheat and flour and related grains across Africa and the Middle East.” In July, Ukraine sent 1,000 tonnes of wheat to Gaza to address the food shortages there.

Last week, Ukraine signalled its readiness to re-engage with Damascus diplomatically, announcing a donation of 500 tonnes of wheat flour, which started arriving on New Year's Day. The UN's World Food Programme issued a video on Tuesday saying food assistance was much needed in a country where one million more people had joined the 7.2 million internally displaced in the November-December period.

Kyiv hopes that the shipment will be followed by many others through its Black Sea Grain Initiative. Mr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that Ukraine hopes to send oil, sugar and meat deliveries. Ukraine cut ties with Syria in June 2022, when the government recognised the independence of the Russia-occupied territories in Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Commercial ties between Syria and Ukraine are likely to recover and trade will resume, said Monika Tothova, senior economist at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation. Vital to these developments will be further easing of international sanctions. Syria's economic and financial sectors remain under sanction, as does Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the insurgent group behind the interim government in Damascus. On Monday, the US eased restrictions on certain transactions with Syria.

Syria, which became heavily reliant on Russian wheat after a drought in 2008 and the start of a civil war in 2011, will likely be looking at imports from the Black Sea region, where prices are competitive. With a production capacity of four million tonnes of wheat in a good year, Syria used to be close to self-sufficient.

Although Russian and Syrian trade statistics are not public, a large portion of wheat exported by Russia to Syria is believed to come from Crimea, which was annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014. It is estimated that Syria ranks 24th among Russia's wheat buyers. Russia and Ukraine have a combined market share of more than one third of the global wheat trade.

Pre-empting Russian moves

“Although international sanctions tend not to include imports of food and other necessities, the course of action in terms of sourcing imports also depends on whether Syria is reintegrated into the international system of financial transactions,” Ms Tothova said.

“Should that happen, the choice of trading countries will be based on the price asked for the wheat. It could be Ukraine – but it could also be the Russian Federation or [have another] origin, depending on the price.”

Meanwhile, Russia has kept a low diplomatic profile as questions are raised about the future of its military bases in Syria. Moscow evacuated some diplomatic personnel after the collapse of the Assad regime but said its embassy remained open. HTS leader Ahmad Al Shara has said that relations with Moscow must continue. In a recent interview, he described Russia as “an important country”.

The approach of Syria's new leadership under Mr Al Shara has left many wondering what Russia's presence in Syria will look like. Moscow appears to be hedging its bets amid reports that it is moving military equipment from Syria to Libya.

In the meantime, Ukraine is laying out its cards. On X, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said that Syria represented an opportunity for his country and its companies. “Ukraine is trying to pre-empt Russian moves with the new leadership in Damascus,” Mr Klyszcz said. Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Vitalii Koval said in a television interview he had been given the responsibility of supporting the Syrian people with a long-term initiative with a “predictable and stable food supply system”.

A crucial part of Ukraine's engagement is the integration of Syria into its “grain from Ukraine” initiative, launched in 2022. The programme involves donor countries buying Ukrainian grain for delivery to countries at risk of famine. It has become an important diplomatic means for Kyiv to address Russian influence, particularly in Africa.

While more than 90 per cent of Syria's population lives below the poverty line, and more than half the population struggles to feed itself, it is not described by international humanitarian organisations as a country at risk of famine.

Beyond grain, Ukraine may anticipate additional opportunities in Syria, particularly in defence. Kyiv has been exploring lifting restrictions on drone exports in an attempt to enhance local production and holds a significant stockpile of Soviet-era weaponry that is becoming less relevant as its military shifts to Nato-standard arms.

Ukraine has been expanding its partnerships in the defence sector, including more recently with India. Extending such partnerships to Syria in the medium to long term would make sense, Mr Kylszcz said.

“Right now, something similar with Syria is unlikely,” he said. “But in the coming years, once Russia's war against Ukraine is over, Ukraine will have a large defence industry that can represent a credible alternative to Russia.”