Gaza champions hoping for success in Irish election

Dublin constituency sees independents challenge main parties amid anger over Middle East war and migration

Dublin Central candidate Clare Daly during a pro-Palestinian march in the city. PA

Dublin Central, the Irish constituency called “the one to watch” by political scientists, could return a pro-Gaza candidate in a general election considered by some to be the most important for a generation.

The largely working class area on north side of the River Liffey is a key battleground where anti-establishment candidates are vying to make an impact when voters go to the polls on Friday. Experts predict the national poll could see success for independents, including those who have championed Gaza amid the war with Israel.

Prime Minister Simon Harris's centre-right Fine Gael is seeking an unprecedented fourth successive term in office, with the country's centre-right coalition parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, expected to return to power as a booming economy and record employment throttles support for the main opposition party, Sinn Fein.

However, Mr Harris – who has been dubbed the TikTok Taoiseach for his savvy use of social media – has been forced to apologise in recent days for seemingly treating a disability services worker dismissively, which experts predict could cost him. And concerns around Ireland's housing, migration and the war in Gaza could see an increasingly polarised electorate shift away from traditional parties.

In Dublin Central, those in contention for a seat include a long-time critic of Israel, an anti-immigration activist and a notorious crime boss once accused of a high-profile gangland murder. “Dublin Central will be the one to watch in terms of shocks,” Brendan Flynn, assistant professor and head of political science at the University of Galway, told The National.

While Ireland's parties are agreed on the need for a Gaza ceasefire, some believe the government's response has fallen short, particularly after delaying a contentious bill that would effectively ban trade from Israeli-occupied settlements in the West Bank.

“Ireland, along with a few other countries such as Belgium, Slovenia and Spain, is generally seen as one of the member states most sympathetic to the Palestinian case,” Michael Gallagher, a professor of politics at Trinity College Dublin, told The National. “The Taoiseach, Simon Harris, has stated unequivocally that if [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu were to arrive in Ireland he would be arrested on foot of the ICC warrant, and the issue doesn't divide the parties as it might in some countries.”

Independent Clare Daly, 56, is among those who have called for a strong stance against Israel and is hoping be elected as one of the area's four members of parliament, known as teachta dalas. The former member of the European Parliament has styled herself as an anti-war voice and political provocateur for decades. Her and fellow Irish MEP Mick Wallace were criticised in Brussels for their position on Ukraine that was seen as supportive of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ms Daly has accused Israel of “genocide” in Gaza and said that the inability to come to a ceasefire has triggered a “crisis of international law” that demands reform of institutions such as the UN. In December, she criticised European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, saying she presided over foreign policies that “cheerlead a brutal apartheid regime”, dubbing her “Frau Genocide”.

She has a good chance of winning a seat, said Mr Flynn. “This constituency is a very working class constituency,” he said. “There are pockets that are quite well off, but there is a strong tradition of voting for a radical left candidate, which you really don’t have in Ireland. This constituency elected an independent socialist a few years ago, so Clare Daly is basically trying to get her seat back.”

One area that might not appeal to all voters is her stance on immigration, he said, which is an issue that has become less important nationally, but remains more of a concern in seats such as Dublin Central, where encampments have been set up by migrants.

“She doesn’t engage with the migration debate in a way that condemns migrants,” Mr Flynn said. “She is much more nuanced and says it has to do with the government and the way the housing market is run. So if you are someone who is very angry about migration, maybe Clare Daly isn’t for you.”

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald is likely to be the first of four Dublin Central candidates to be elected to the Dail, Ireland's parliament, on Friday. In the last election in 2020, she won 11,000 first preference votes, nearly three times that of the second placed candidate, Fine Gael's Paschal Donohoe, a former minister for finance.

But recent polling shows overall support for Sinn Fein at 18 per cent, after once being 33 per cent. The slump has been blamed on Sinn Fein's soft-touch migration policy and issues with the party's governance that has taken the gloss off Ms McDonald's reputation.

Sinn Fein has traditionally been seen as the leading voice for Palestine in Ireland long before the Israel-Gaza war broke out on October 7. In its manifesto published last week, Sinn Fein said it would commission an “independent human rights and journalist expert review into the objectivity of coverage by state broadcaster RTE of the Israeli genocide in Gaza and other international conflicts”.

The move was not popular with the coalition leaders. Mr Harris and Tanaiste (deputy PM) and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin both heavily criticised the proposal, with Mr Harris calling it a “dog whistle for conspiracy theorists” and Mr Martin branding it a “dangerous departure”.

Migration

Migration has grown to become a major issue among voters in Ireland. The past year has seen 17,000 people apply for international protection, an increase of 60 per cent over 12 months and beating last year's record numbers.

Ireland's Central Statistics Office reported net migration of 98,700 people in April over the past 12 months, the highest population increase since 2007 when Ireland's Celtic Tiger went bust.

The housing shortage was already chronic, particularly in Dublin, before more than 110,000 refugees arrived from Ukraine in 2021. Figures show that Dublin has some of the most expensive rents in Europe, challenging London, Oslo and Paris despite its small size.

These concerns have brought about resentment among sections of society who feel they are struggling financially despite the economy's rude health. Last year the country's finances enjoyed a €12 billion ($12.6 billion) surplus over the past 12 months.

Anti-migrant riots broke out in Dublin after an Algerian-born former asylum seeker was arrested and ultimately charged with stabbing several schoolchildren and their teacher at a city centre primary school.

At least 49 people were arrested in the resulting violence which targeted asylum centres and saw widespread looting and attacking of police. Ireland has until now avoided the far-right drift seen in the Netherlands and France but that may be about to change.

The lack of housing for the asylum seekers has led to hundreds being forced to sleep in tents in locations across the capital, with some areas sealed off by authorities to prevent them becoming camp sites.

Pockets of deprivation still exist alongside the offices of tech giants Facebook, Google and LinkedIn, built nearby over the past 20 years.

“Immigration will probably be a little bit higher in a constituency like Dublin Central. But typically what I have heard from people doing canvassing is that the issues are folded up. People are quite pragmatic and say the housing thing and the cost of living thing are two sides of the same coin. They can’t afford rents,” said Mr Flynn.

Malachy Steenson is the candidate likely to get most of the anti-immigration vote through his support and organisation of a number anti-immigration and asylum seeker protests, he said.

“Ireland will end up with one, possibly two deputies who could be described as far-right in the parliament. But they will be independents,” said Mr Flynn. “Independents will do well in this election.”

Gerry “The Monk” Hutch, 61, who grew up in Dublin Central, is another candidate vying for one of the constituency's four seats. Hutch has served time for armed robbery but now he wants to run for parliament as an independent to represent the community where he grew up.

“We have TDs at the moment but we have no representatives, that's what I'm hearing in the street from the people and they've asked me would I go,” Hutch told the Sunday World newspaper's Crime World podcast.

Hutch is one of the few remaining figures of the crime wave that hit Dublin in the 1980s when the city was badly affected by drug addiction and associated crime. Gangland figures became well known to readers of tabloids, which closely followed their rise and eventual fall.

Hutch was nicknamed “The Monk” by journalist Veronica Guerin due to his ascetic lifestyle and unshowy persona. Ms Guerin was murdered in 1996, leading the state to come down heavily on the Dublin underworld in a manner similar to how it dealt with paramilitaries in Northern Ireland.

In 2021, Hutch was extradited from Spain to Ireland to face murder charges over the Regency Hotel shooting in Dublin that left one person dead. The target of the incident, which took place in daylight in front of hundreds of witnesses, was said to be boxing promoter Daniel Kinahan, as part of a long-running feud that has left more than 18 people dead.

Hutch was acquitted of the killings in 2023 following a trial. However, he is now wanted back in Spain in connection with money laundering charges.

“It’s important to point out that he himself has always said he has done his time and he is a reformed character. That’s his line and he’s entitled to that,” said Mr Flynn.

“It’s not unusual for colourful characters to run for election in Ireland. And whether he actually stands a chance at getting elected, I don’t know. Because that constituency has three major colourful candidates, they could cancel each other out in some ways.”