Romania election: Far-right leader Calin Georgescu takes surprise lead

Top two candidates go through to a second round of voting on December 8

Calin Georgescu, running as an independent candidate for Romania's presidency, speaks to media in the capital, Bucharest. AP

A far-right, pro-Russia candidate has excelled in Romania's presidential election, defying exit polls that had predicted a comfortable lead for Marcel Ciolacu, the centre-left, pro-European Prime Minister.

With 98.66 per cent of ballots counted by Monday morning, Calin Georgescu had pulled ahead with 22.59 per cent of the vote, compared to Mr Ciolacu's 19.55 per cent in the race to take over from President Klaus Iohannis in a largely ceremonial post.

In the absence of an outright winner in the first round, the top two candidates will go through to a second round on December 8.

Political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu told AFP that whatever the outcome, "the far right is by far the big winner of this election", with another nationalist candidate, George Simion, currently in fourth, putting the far-right on track to take about a third of the vote.

The result follows a shift to the far-right across Europe, driving the electoral success of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) in the Netherlands, the election of the most right-wing government in Italy since World War Two and far-right gains in Austria and Germany, partly driven by concerns over immigration.

The result would be a political earthquake in the country of 19 million, a Nato member which has so far resisted nationalist posturing, setting itself apart from Hungary and Slovakia.

Mr Ciolacu's Social Democrat party has shaped Romanian politics for more than three decades and as he voted on Sunday he promised stability and a "decent standard of living".

But with concerns mounting over inflation and the war in neighbouring Ukraine, the far-right appeared to be gaining ground ahead of the vote. Support for Mr Georgescu has surged in recent days with a viral TikTok campaign calling for an end to aid for Ukraine, with the politician claiming the war with Russia is being influenced by US military companies.

He is sceptical on Romania's Nato membership, saying neither the alliance nor the EU represent the interests of the country. He had dismissed claims of attempted Russian interference in the election. "Tonight, the Romanian people cried out for peace," Mr Georgescu said. "And they shouted very loudly, extremely loudly."

Mr Simion had also tapped into voter anger over inflation while promising more affordable housing. Looking for a new election breakthrough for European far-right parties, he warned of possible fraud and "foreign interference" in the voting process.

The stakes are high for Romania, which has a 650km border with Ukraine. It now plays a "vital strategic role" for Nato, as it is a base for more than 5,000 soldiers, and the transit of Ukrainian grain, the New Strategy Centre think tank said.

The presidential campaign has been marked by controversy and personal attacks, with Mr Simion facing accusations of meeting Russian spies – a claim he has denied – and Mr Ciolacu coming under criticism for his use of private jets.

Mr Pirvulescu, the political scientist, said the far right's surprise success could have a "contagion effect" in the parliamentary elections scheduled for next month, which could make it difficult to form a coalition.

Some observers had tipped Elena Lasconi, mayor of the small town of Campulung and head of a centre-right opposition party, as a surprise package. She is currently running in third place.