Escalation fears as Ukraine says Russia fires first ballistic missile

Attack comes two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed revised nuclear rules

Ukrainian firefighters tackle a blaze following a Russian air attack in Dnipro on Thursday. AFP

Russia has launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine since starting the war against its neighbour in 2022, Kyiv said on Thursday, in a move the EU described as a “clear escalation”.

Ukraine’s air force did not specify the missile type but said it targeted Dnipro city and was launched from Russia’s Astrakhan region, which borders the Caspian Sea. It did not carry a nuclear warhead, according to a source in the Ukrainian air force.

Kyiv-based media outlet Ukrainska Pravda cited anonymous sources saying the missile was an RS-26 Rubezh, a solid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a 5,800km range, according to the Arms Control Association. It can carry an 800kg nuclear warhead. However, ABC News quoted an unnamed western official suggesting the missile was not an ICBM.

Russia also fired a Kinzhal hypersonic missile and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles, six of which were shot down, the Ukrainian air force said. Regional Governor Serhiy Lysak said the missile attack damaged an industrial enterprise and set off fires in Dnipro. Two people were hurt.

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman was instructed not to comment on the reports during a phone call she received during a media briefing on Thursday. “Masha”, an unknown male voice on the phone said, addressing spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. “On the 'Yuzhmash' ballistic missile strike that the Westerners have started talking about, we are not commenting at all,” it said, referring to an aerospace manufacturer based in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

The European Union's foreign affairs spokesman said the use of a ICBM would mark a “clear escalation”. “While we're assessing the full facts it's obvious that such [an] attack would mark yet another clear escalation from the side of Putin,” Peter Stano told reporters, saying the move would represent a “quantitative and qualitative change” in the war.

France's Foreign Ministry spokesman also said the move would be a serious escalation, if true, but he could not confirm whether the attack involved an intercontinental ballistic missile. "If confirmed we will react in an appropriate manner," Christophe Lemoine told journalists at a news conference.

An ICBM would be an expensive way to cause damage. The cost of the US Air Force’s new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, developed to replace the 1970s-era Minuteman, has risen to as much as $162 million apiece, Bloomberg News reported earlier this year.

“This is a very powerful message from Putin,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “It’s a very calculated move as it does not require retaliation by the US.”

The attack comes two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a revised nuclear rules, formally lowering the threshold for the country's use of nuclear weapons.

The new doctrine allows for a potential nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power. But while it envisions a possible nuclear response by Russia to a conventional strike, it is formulated broadly to avoid a firm commitment to use nuclear weapons and keep Mr Putin’s options open.

The updated doctrine came on the same day Ukraine fired several American-supplied longer-range missiles and reportedly fired UK-made Storm Shadows into Russia.

The Russian Defence Ministry said on Thursday that its air defence systems shot down two British-made Storm Shadow missiles, six Himars rockets, and 67 drones. The announcement came in the ministry’s daily round-up regarding the military actions in Ukraine.

Britain's Defence Secretary John Healey told the UK Parliament's Defence Committee on Thursday: “This is a serious moment that I come before the committee. Defence intelligence will reveal today that the front line is now less stable than at any time since the early days of the full scale Russian invasion in 2022.”

Responding to reports of the Russian use of an ICBM, he added: “Be in no doubt that [the] UK Government is stepping up our support for Ukraine, determined to continue doubling down our support for Ukraine.” Downing Street described the reports as "deeply concerning".

The war has taken on a growing international dimension with the arrival of North Korean troops to help Russia on the battlefield – a development that US officials said prompted President Joe Biden’s policy shift to allowing Ukraine to fire longer-range US missiles into Russia. The Kremlin responded with threats to escalate further.

The US issued new sanctions against Russia on Thursday, focusing on Moscow's use of the international financial system.

"In response to Russian aggression, President [Joe] Biden has led international efforts alongside the G7 and many of our allies and partners to hold Russia accountable for its aggression," National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said. "Today’s sanctions will further curtail Russia’s abuse of the international financial system to help finance its war against Ukraine."

Meanwhile, former German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has revealed that she attempted to slow Ukraine’s bid for Nato membership during her time in office over fears it would provoke President Putin.

Ms Merkel discusses the situation in her new memoirs, Freedom: Memories 1954 – 2021, which explores the 2008 Nato summit in Bucharest, when Ukraine and Georgia’s bids were discussed.

While she “understood” the desire of central and eastern European countries to join Nato “as soon as possible”, Ms Merkel said she believed their accession should improve the security of the alliance overall.

But none of the other potential members’ applications were as complicated as Ukraine’s due to the presence of Russia’s Black Sea fleet off Crimea. The eventual outcome of the summit, was, however, seen as negative by both sides.

Ukraine and Georgia considered the lack of a clear path to membership as a setback for their aspirations, while Mr Putin considered the broader promise from the alliance a provocation.

“I thought it was an illusion to assume that candidate status would protect Ukraine and Georgia from Putin's aggression, that this status would have such a deterrent effect that Putin would passively accept the developments,” Ms Merkel wrote in an excerpt from the book published in Die Zeit on Thursday.

“The fact that Georgia and Ukraine did not receive a commitment on candidate status was a 'no' to their hopes. The fact that Nato also offered them a general promise of membership was for Putin a 'yes' to Nato membership for both countries and a declaration of war.”