Europe's energy bosses panned for outdated net-zero plans

Ten-year power grid forecasts already out of date on battery storage and 'very optimistic' on hydrogen

Europe's energy grid operators are forecasting 800 per cent growth in wind and solar power by 2050 but their projections were criticised by regulators. Reuters

Doubts have been raised over Europe's readiness for net zero after a key 10-year energy plan received a scathing verdict from regulators.

A blueprint drawn up by power grid operators in 36 European countries was found to contain "significant inconsistencies" on solar power, already out-of-date figures on battery storage and "very optimistic" forecasts on the use of hydrogen fuel.

Operators also failed to "stress test" their draft 80-page forecast against economic booms and busts, according to EU energy agency Acer. It said the report was late and made doubtful predictions for the "essential time horizon" to 2035.

Campaigners called it a wake-up call for the sector. Operators "are failing to plan for the necessary scale of renewable energy additions to the grid", said Juliet Phillips, an expert on energy markets at lobby group Beyond Fossil Fuels.

If the figures are wrong and the grid cannot handle the volume of renewables, the result would be that "more gas will likely be used, pushing up prices for everyone", she told The National. She said businesses "may be concerned about the reliability of the electrical grid".

The EU has a target of becoming the "first climate-neutral continent" by 2050. Part of the plan is a massive expansion of wind and solar power, and the use of electric cars and heat pumps to cut Europe's CO2 emissions.

It is also hoped a renewables boom will curb the EU's reliance on foreign suppliers, after gas imports from Russia became a political headache during the war in Ukraine. Energy prices surged after Moscow cut off supplies to Germany and other European countries.

Growth forecast

The power grid operators handed over their 10-year projections in May, saying Europe could meet its climate goals with enough money and technology. They forecast 800 per cent growth in solar and wind generation by 2050, by which time renewables would cover about 90 per cent of energy needs.

They modelled current national climate plans and two "storylines" called Global Ambition, in which there is a "fast and global move" to meet climate targets, and Distributed Energy, in which green action takes place at a more local level. The regulator said these failed to provide a balanced look at what might happen.

Hydrogen demand was higher than the baseline in both "storylines" and even the basic forecast was "very optimistic", the regulator said. It said operators had not modelled "high and low economy variants" as requested.

It said battery storage levels in 2024 were already higher than those forecast in a "high trajectory" in the report. Among other inconsistencies, solar power projections for Austria were lower than expected in one scenario and "grossly overestimated" in another.

A second expert panel, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, also criticised the power grid plans in June. It said the scenarios were "not fit for purpose" and made assumptions that "seem implausible" on hydrogen and carbon capture.