Political deadlock in France set to weaken its diplomacy in the Middle East

Country has taken a lead role in trying to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Lebanon

Parliamentary election results have shaken French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, left, and President Emmanuel Macron. AP

The political paralysis expected to grip France after no clear majority emerged from snap parliamentary elections is set to weaken its diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, analysts told The National.

The far-right National Rally was favourite to come first in the election but was overtaken by a left coalition and parties from the centre as a result of last-minute alliances.

“There will be a lot of uncertainty in the coming weeks and this will inevitably curtail France’s ability to achieve any progress in areas where it is playing a proactive role,” said Kelly Petillo, programme manager for the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Laure Foucher, a senior Middle East research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, said: “France's foreign policy has been incarnated primarily by President Emmanuel Macron, especially in the Middle East. Any loss of legitimacy at a national level impacts how he's viewed by international partners.”

However, a source close to the Foreign Ministry played down such concerns, highlighting the far right's lower than expected score on Sunday.

An adviser to Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said “no ambassador that we have spoken to since this morning have expressed this fear”.

“If the far right had obtained an absolute majority, we would have been weakened,” they said, but dismissed talk of diminished foreign influence as “nonsense”.

“Germany is a coalition of three parties. The UK was governed by a deeply unpopular government.”

Polarised views

Mr Macron has kept busy on the international front in the past four weeks despite the political turmoil caused by his shock decision to call for snap elections after a far-right surge in a European election last month.

In the same week as the first round of the elections on June 30, he received King Abdullah and Queen Rania of Jordan for a working lunch in Paris during which they discussed humanitarian access to Gaza.

Paris was also a central part of a diplomatic push to avert a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon, with a meeting between US envoy Amos Hochstein and French special envoy to Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian in the French capital on Wednesday.

In the meantime, Mr Macron was coming under a barrage of criticism at home, including from his allies, for possibly handing over power to the far right. Marine Le Pen's party did less well than expected thanks to left-wing and centrist candidates stepping down to block it.

Yet those who defend the President by highlighting the possibility of a broad coalition similar to neighbouring countries are also probably aware that France has no history of such coalitions.

Its three most important political parties have vastly different opinions on the Israel-Palestine conflict, which became a sensitive topic in the election campaign. France hosts Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim populations.

Tough talks are expected in the coming weeks between the left-wing coalition, which is dominated by pro-Palestine party France Unbowed (LFI), centrists and the far right as they attempt to agree on a new prime minister and government. The Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Foreign Affairs – traditionally steered by the presidency – will probably go to politicians close to Mr Macron.

It remains unclear whether the President would be willing to give concessions to the left after spending so much time discrediting its positions on Palestine. Mr Macron and his allies have attacked LFI for alleged anti-Semitism – an accusation LFI denies – and say the recognition of a Palestinian state is not off the table but must come at an appropriate time.

Meanwhile, the far right, which has no experience in government, has close to doubled its number of MPs in the National Assembly. It has taken a strong pro-Israel stance in an attempt to break with the anti-Semitic views of its founder, Holocaust denier Jean-Marie Le Pen.

“If the President has to enter into a cohabitation with other political movements, he will continue to lead on foreign policy,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at St Joseph University of Beirut.

“Considering there is no parliamentary majority, he will have a considerable margin of manoeuvre.”

France, a former colonial power in the Middle East, has little influence on Israeli politics but was viewed within the EU as the country with most political weight when it came to steering the bloc's policy on the Gaza war.

In April, Mr Macron signed with Egyptian and Jordanian leaders President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and King Abdullah II a joint call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

It was a high point for French diplomacy, which tried to build bridges between Arab countries and Europe as Washington was accused of not taking into account Arab concerns, said Ms Foucher.

“I doubt we'll see more of these joint initiatives in the coming months,” she added. “But we'll have to see how Mr Macron wants to position himself internally to survive politically.

“Will he want or be able to invest even more in foreign policy to appear above political infighting in France? It's an open question.”

A proactive stance

France has also been heavily involved in talks with the US and regional partners to stop the deadly tit-for-tat between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel.

Hezbollah's alliance with Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that led attacks against Israel on October 7, compelled the Lebanese party and militia to open a pressure front on Israel's northern border.

The cross-border violence has killed at least 497 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but also including 95 civilians, according to an AFP tally.

On the Israeli side, at least 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to authorities.

“France has been particularly proactive among European countries, coming up with an initiative leading to Hezbollah eventually accepting the borders under UN parameters established in 2006,” said Ms Petillo.

“Lately, there was more willingness for France to join forces with the US, but unfortunately between France’s paralysis and the squabbling within the US Democratic party after [President Joe] Biden’s debate performance and the push for a new candidate, we will not see many results.”

Ending the violence on the Lebanese-Israeli border hinges on achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, which remains elusive nearly 10 months into the war.

Despite criticism of France last month by Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, most Israeli officials are aware that their best way out with regard to Lebanon involves negotiations and Paris, alongside the US, which plays a central role in the current mediation processes, Ms Foucher said.

“France has led discussions for de-escalation since November. It's the only EU country that speaks to everyone and is able to send messages to Hezbollah,” she told The National.

“France will probably remain useful on Lebanon even if it suffers from political instability.”