French far-right celebrates as centrists split after Macron election blow

Divisions as President's allies fail to agree on who voters should choose to run against the rising National Rally

Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, with supporters. High-profile left and central figures are calling for unity to stop her achieving an absolute majority. EPA

Presidential allies from the centrist parties were feuding on Monday over run-off strategies as the French far-right fixed its sights on further progress after obtaining a record number of votes in the first round of the snap parliamentary election.

Its political adversaries hope to block a number of MPs from being elected in a second round this week but divisions have surfaced over standing down to allow leftist candidates a clear run against the radical right.

More than 10.5 million people on Sunday voted for Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and its allies (33.2 per cent), ahead of a leftist coalition (28 per cent) and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp (20 per cent).

The shock defeat of the President's camp and the far-right's important gains have sent shock waves through the political establishment.

"This historic score is worrying," one of the President's centrist allies, Francois Bayrou, told TV channel TF1. "It's a threat that we have to avert in the coming days."

Thousands rallied in major cities in protest over the RN's rise, with some expressing fear over the party's attacks on French citizens of Muslim heritage.

"In my house, we are discussing whether we should go to Algeria," dual citizen Sabrina told radio France Bleu, speaking from the north-western city of Cherbourg.

"But the kids were born here, they are French. If we go there, we are nothing. If we stay here, we are nothing. This needs to stop. Enough."

Second round

France now enters a week of political horse-trading, with an eye on hundreds of constituencies that face a run-off between three candidates in the second round on Sunday.

"We will have an effect which will rather work against the RN," Brice Teinturier, deputy director of pollster Ipsos, told radio France Inter.

Mainstream political parties have historically struck deals for the third-placed candidate to step down if it favours the election of an MP not affiliated to the RN – long-shunned for its anti-Semitic roots and anti-democratic tendencies.

This is called forming a "Republican front" in the face of a party that is considered as incompatible with the values of the French republic.

MPs can be elected at the first round if they obtain more than half the ballots, as well as a number of votes at least equal to a quarter of the electorate.

More than half of the 76 politicians elected last Sunday were from the RN, including Marine Le Pen in the northern region of Pas-de-Calais.

In the first round, candidates who obtain at least 12.5 per cent of votes can stay in the race if no one wins outright. The likelihood of three-way battles increases when voter participation is high, as it was last Sunday at 66.71 per cent. Whoever wins the most votes is elected in the second round.

Candidates have until Tuesday to decide whether to continue the race or withdraw. Only then can more precise projections of what the new National Assembly may look be made.

Rough estimates currently evaluate the RN winning 210 to 260 seats, leftist coalition the New Popular Front (NFP) between 140 and 190, and Mr Macron's group 70 to 120.

So far a number of candidates allied to the President have already stepped down in favour of the left. They include Secretary of State Sabrina Agresti-Roubache and Minister Gelegate for Overseas Territories Marie Guevenoux.

But Mr Macron's camp sent mixed messages about whether France Unbowed (LFI), one of the main members of the NFP that was set up for this election, was included in the so-called Republican Front.

With vague wording about supporting Republican values, the President and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal did not reciprocate a call by LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon to systematically back candidates opposed to the RN.

This allowed space for politicians to send different messages.

Divisions over strategy

Former prime minister Edouard Philippe said he opposed both LFI and the RN but former National Assembly president Yael Braun-Pivet said voters must decide on a case-by-case basis, adding that those who had expressed anti-Semitic views must be shunned while others deserved support.

Ms Le Pen claimed voters were indifferent to such political manoeuvring.

"I am convinced that these instructions which are unnatural will not be followed by a large number of French people," she said. "I am convinced that we will have an absolute majority."

An absolute majority would imply her group will succeed in sending 289 MPs to Parliament. RN president Jordan Bardella has said he would accept the job of Prime Minister only if this threshold is achieved.

But party spokesman Sebastien Chenu on Monday said the RN could form a government with fewer than that figure.

"If there are enough [MPs], we will assume our responsibilities before the French," Mr Chenu told TV channel France 2.

Ms Le Pen's former partner and RN-vice president Louis Aliot was more cautious.

He said the party was working on names for a future government but that it was also waiting for more clarity.

"If there are only 250 [RN] MPs, meaning very little chance of getting texts voted, there is no point," Mr Aliot said.

"It has to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. There is a threshold where it [the country] will be governable," he said, although he had "no idea" what that threshold was.

Updated: July 01, 2024, 7:11 PM