Far-right advances in the recent European election are set to strengthen relations with the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while a weaker France may reduce further the EU's diplomatic footprint in the Middle East, observers have said.
Centrist President Emmanuel Macron had attempted a delicate balancing act of both showing solidarity with Israel while also engaging with Arab partners over measures to guarantee Palestinian rights in the region.
Few were convinced such efforts did much to influence Israeli or Palestinian leadership, but Mr Macron appeared to be one of the European leaders most willing to engage political capital in trying to solve the conflict.
With Mr Macron now busy with snap elections scheduled for June 30, he is unlikely to be as involved as before in discussions in Brussels, including EU foreign policy.
“France now has other things to worry about than the Middle East conflict, and the far right is a step away from power. That might change the balance within Europe,” said Dan Sobovitz, an Israeli Brussels-based communications specialist.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a G7 leaders summit in Italy, EU Council president Charles Michel said the impact of the European election results “must not be underestimated”.
“We have a need at the European Council to clarify what are the orientations we have in the future,” Mr Michel said, responding to a question from The National. Strategic orientations of the EU are determined by the council.
“International law, international humanitarian law, no double standards – these are fundamental principles, and I'm confident that leaders will stick to these principles.
“If we are sincere – and we are sincere – if we believe in international law, if we think that it must prevail, then we must act in consistency with our convictions.”
Political turmoil
The Rassemblement National, a French far-right party, took more than 30 per cent of the vote, way ahead of Mr Macron's centrist group at 14.6 per cent.
Mr Macron then announced snap elections for June 30 in a shock move widely viewed as a gamble to destabilise the RN, causing an open crisis within right-wing party Les Republicains.
Its president Eric Ciotti has refused to accept his exclusion from the party after calls to resign following his decision to form an alliance with the RN – a move that mainstream parties have always avoided for historic reasons linked to its anti-Semitic past.
In a press conference, Mr Macron said he wanted to avoid the RN's Marine Le Pen becoming president in 2027. He pushed back against suggestions he may step down from power should his group lose again in the legislative election at the end of the month.
“I hope that when the time comes, men and women of goodwill – who will have been able to say no to the extremes – will come together, will put themselves in a position to build a shared, sincere project that is useful to the country,” Mr Macron said.
Should the RN win again, Mr Macron will be under pressure to appoint a new prime minister either from the party or favourable to it.
This may open the door to warmer relations with the Israeli government due to RN president Jordan Bardella's pro-Israel and anti-Islam views.
The proximity between the current Israeli government and the RN is not ideological, said Mr Sobovitz, a former adviser to European Commission vice president Maros Sefcovic.
Rather, “they perceive each other as having a common enemy. Islamophobia brings them together”, Mr Sobovitz told The National.
Relations have been heating up in the past years as the party attempts to break with the legacy of its founder, Holocaust denier Jean-Marie Le Pen.
Other EU countries with populist parties in power, such as Hungary and recently Poland, have also sought to strengthen ties with Israel.
Israeli attacks
Senior Israeli officials took to social media to celebrate the electoral setbacks of European leaders viewed as pro-Palestinian such as Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, a liberal, and his Spanish counterpart Pedro Sanchez, a socialist.
Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli appeared to make fun of Mr De Croo's tears after he resigned following the European election, writing on X: “Apparently supporting terror doesn’t resonate with the Belgian people.”
Foreign Minister Israel Katz published photos of Mr Sanchez with a broken egg trickling down his face, claiming he had faced a “resounding defeat”.
Socialists in Spain came second in Sunday's vote, behind the conservatives, a notable setback compared to their 2019 landslide victory.
There was no official response to the posts, though Spain's Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares has in the past said similar attacks were “despicable” and repeated Spain's condemnation of Hamas.
They have caused shock among some for their breach of diplomatic protocol.
“It's a terrible lack of professionalism. It only isolates Israel further,” said Mr Sobovitz.
The far right's electoral gains across Europe are expected to translate into a stronger opposition role in the European Parliament, where conservatives and socialists remain the strongest blocs.
Parliament approves laws and top jobs and can also issue non-binding resolutions on international affairs that signal how the continent positions itself on certain issues, but cannot put forward legislation.
That can only be done at the level of the European Commission and the European council, where heads of state meet.
Despite some EU leaders calling for sanctions against Israel over possible human rights offences in Gaza, the council has signalled it is not interested due to a lack of consensus.
Many countries, including Germany, Hungary and the Czech Republic, reject language that may seem critical of Israel.
European Parliament election results – in pictures
The likelihood of punitive measures in the near future has further decreased as Mr Sanchez, the lead pro-Palestinian voice in the EU, appears weakened by the European election.
According to rumours in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Parliament chief Roberta Metsola are on track for second terms.
The German and Maltese politicians travelled together to Israel after the October 7 attacks in what was widely viewed as a strong show of support for the country.
The European Council's top job could possibly go to former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa and the top diplomat posting to Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.
Ms Kallas has gained prominence with her anti-Russia views but has stayed quiet on the Middle East.
The top diplomat job is a tough one, with EU countries often failing to show unity on foreign policy issues, including the Gaza war.
Outgoing foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has often put out statements in his own name condemning Israeli military action when consensus could not be achieved among the bloc's 27 members.
“Populism both in Israel and in Europe is further fuelling divisions. If both Israel and Palestine perceive the new high-representative as weak, they won't listen,” said Mr Sobovitz.
