'Nobody wants to die for this regime': Rebels look to Damascus as Assad's hold on Syria loosens

Rebels' momentum sees them poised to capture the strategically key city

A Syrian opposition flag is flown after rebels captured Hama. Reuters

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Syrian President Bashar Al Assad's decades-long hold on power appeared to be loosening on Friday as rebels made rapid gains against a retreating national army and as supporter Russia signalled only limited support for Damascus.

Rebel fighters said they had reached the city limits of the city of Homs as part of their offensive against government forces. A day earlier, fighters captured the central city of Hama after the army withdrew, and rebels have seized Syria's second-largest city Aleppo.

A member of the rebel command told The National that fighters had paused at the northern outskirts of Homs, where the government forces and up to 200 Hezbollah fighters are dug in near the military academy and other security compounds.

If Mr Al Assad’s military loses Homs, it would be a blow to his 24-year grip on power. The city connects Damascus to Syria’s coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus, where Mr Assad still enjoys broad support. It also is a hub for funnelling aid and materiel from Syria into Lebanon for Hezbollah.

Attacking rebel forces could try to make a pincer advance on Homs from the east and west, similar to a strategy that succeeded in capturing Hama two days ago, another opposition military source working with the rebels told The National.

"Once the rebels take Homs, which I presume they're going to do, then Damascus is going to be very vulnerable. It seems that the fight has really gone out of the Syrian army," said Joshua Landis, a Syria analyst and the head of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. "Nobody wants to die for this regime anymore."

Meanwhile, Moscow appeared to be turning its back on Damascus. A source close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg that Russia does not have a plan to save Mr Al Assad and does not see one emerging as long as the Syrian army continues to abandon its positions.

"For Assad and his supporters, losing Aleppo was catastrophic, and losing Hama made things significantly worse," Syria analyst Aron Lund from the Century Foundation said in a conversation published by the think tank. "But if the government were also to lose Homs, then that’s something else. In that case, I think we’re looking at something more resembling a death spiral."

The escalation in fighting in Syria has displaced about 370,000 people in just over a week, the UN said on Friday, and fears are growing in the West about what could happen if the Syrian state collapses.

Russian President Vladimir Putin helped turn the tide of Syria’s civil war in Mr Al Assad’s favour in 2015 and has struck some rebel positions during their rapid advance. But the Russian military is stretched by Moscow's war in Ukraine.

The Russian embassy in Syria urged its nationals to leave the country on commercial flights, Russia's Tass state news agency reported on Friday.

A former US official told The National that if Russia and Iran are unable or unwilling to increase military assistance for his government, Mr Al Assad’s days in power could be numbered.

Still, the former official said Mr Al Assad had diplomatic cards to play and said it’s possible his allies would view an attack on Damascus as a red line that would trigger a broader response.

The rebels are being led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a former affiliate of Al Qaeda. The group's leader, Abu Mohammad Al Golani, told CNN in an interview on Thursday from Syria that Mr Al Assad’s government was on the path to falling.

“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it,” he said. “But the truth remains, this regime is dead.”

Mr Landis told The National that the rebels' momentum brings to mind the rapid advances of the Taliban in August 2021, when the Afghan army collapsed and Taliban fighters seized a cascading string of provincial capitals and then Kabul.

"There aren't going to be many people many people making a last stand at Damascus," he said, noting that it is an overwhelmingly Sunni city where Mr Al Assad and his family are affiliated with the Alawite sect. "It's a Sunni city, and they're not going to rise up and protect it."

Mr Al Assad's other main ally, Iran, also showed waning interest in supporting the President.

Iran already has a military presence in Homs and other parts of Syria. On Friday, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he is prepared to offer "whatever is needed" to support Mr Al Assad, but has previously promised only to “consider” requests for troops.

The New York Times quoted regional and Iranian officials saying Iran had begun to relocate military commanders and personnel from Syria. The report said senior commanders of Iran's Quds Forces were included in those evacuated to Iraq and Lebanon.

Iran’s network of allied militias may help Mr Al Assad shore up his flailing army. But the most powerful of them, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, has been weakened by a major Israeli offensive and last week agreed to a ceasefire. That leaves Syria looking east to Iraq-based groups for support.

But the US has hundreds of troops in the area, and recently disclosed strikes suggest they may be engaging Iraqi militias sympathetic to Mr Al Assad, but the Pentagon has not said who it is fighting.

The US embassy in Syria said that American citizens should leave the country "while commercial options remain available" in the capital city.

And the Canadian government advised its citizens to leave Damascus while it is still safe to do so, saying "opposition forces are heading" to the Syrian capital.

Willy Lowry contributed to this report from Washington