Moldova election: Maia Sandu wins first round but suffers EU setback

Second round tests Moldova’s commitment to Western alignment amid geopolitical pressures

Women cast their vote in Chisinau, Moldova, on October 20, during a presidential election and a referendum on joining the EU, as the war rages in neighbouring Ukraine. AP

A woman has her child post her ballot in Chisinau. AP

President of Moldova Maia Sandu after voting in Chisinau. EPA

Ms Sandu, standing for re-election with the Party of Action and Solidarity, casts her ballots for the presidential polls and EU referendum. AFP

Moldova's presidential candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo casts his ballot in Chisinau. Reuters

Mr Stoianoglo, a former attorney general of Moldova, speaks to media in front of polling station. EPA

Former president of Moldova and head of the Socialist Party, Igor Dodon, casts his ballot with his wife Galina in Chisinau. EPA

Members of Moldova's electoral commission count votes in the presidential election and referendum on joining the EU at the close of voting on October 20. Reuters

President Maia Sandu secured a victory in the first round of Moldova’s presidential election, but suffered a blow as an expected victory in a referendum on the country joining the European Union was too close to call with almost all votes counted.

Ms Sandu, 52, a former World Bank economist and Moldova's first female president, managed to top the first round of presidential elections held at the same time on Sunday but will face a tough second round.

Ms Sandu had applied for Moldova to join the EU after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. One of Europe’s poorest nations, Moldova began EU accession talks this year after securing candidacy status alongside Ukraine.

With more than 98 per cent of the votes counted, the “yes” vote was slightly ahead at 50.08 per cent, while the “no” camp – which had been ahead – stood at 49.92 per cent early on Monday. Pre-vote polls had shown a consistent majority in the former Soviet republic backing accession.

With votes still trickling in from Moldovans voting abroad – a group that tends to overwhelmingly back Ms Sandu’s EU objectives – a “yes” vote was ahead by fewer than 1,000 votes, according to preliminary results.

Ms Sandu said late on Sunday that Moldova had witnessed “an unprecedented assault on our country's freedom and democracy, both today and in recent months”, blaming “criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests”.

She quoted findings by her security officials that about 300,000 voters had been paid off, “a fraud of unprecedented scale”, Ms Sandu said.

Ties with Moscow have deteriorated under Ms Sandu. Her government has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, accused Russia of plotting her overthrow, and diversified energy supply after Russia reduced gas supplies.

Oazu Nantoi, a politician for Ms Sandu's PAS party, said the result was due to Russian “hybrid” interference, including disinformation.

Russia, which has dominated Moldova’s energy resources and political system since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has sought to block the country’s Western path. With the US and EU accusing Moscow of meddling in the elections, the chief Moldovan negotiator with the EU last week said Moscow had pumped about €100 million ($109 million) trying to disrupt the votes.

The referendum result, even if it results in a slim victory for the pro-EU camp, “weakens the pro-European image of the population and the leadership of Maia Sandu”, said Florent Parmentier, a political scientist at Paris-based Sciences Po.

In the presidential election, Ms Sandu gained almost 42 per cent of the votes, according to the results, and so will face her closest competitor, Alexandr Stoianoglo, 57, in a second round on November 3.

The former prosecutor backed by the pro-Russian Socialists had picked up a higher-than-expected result of more than 26 per cent in the race with 11 competitors in total.

Ms Sandu's critics say she has not done enough to fight inflation in one of Europe's poorest countries or to reform the judiciary.

In his campaign, Mr Stoianoglo – who was fired as prosecutor by Ms Sandu – called for the “restoration of justice” and vowed to wage a “balanced foreign policy”. The 57-year-old abstained from voting in the referendum.

Washington issued a new warning recently about suspected Russian interference, while the EU passed new sanctions on several Moldovans. Moscow has “categorically” rejected accusations of meddling.

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Police made hundreds of arrests in recent weeks after discovering an “unprecedented” vote-buying scheme that they say could taint up to a quarter of the ballots cast in the country of 2.6 million.

Police said millions of dollars from Russia aiming to corrupt voters were funnelled into the country by people affiliated to Ilan Shor, a fugitive businessman and former politician. In addition to the suspected vote buying, hundreds of young people were found to have been trained in Russia and the Balkans to create “mass disorder” in Moldova, such as using tactics to provoke law enforcement, according to police.

Convicted in absentia last year for fraud, Shor regularly brands Moldova a “police state” and the West's “obedient puppet”.

“You have crushingly failed,” Shor posted on social networks after the vote.

A procession of EU leaders had visited Chisinau in recent weeks, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz in August and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. Ms von der Leyen announced the allocation of a record €1.8 billion to buoy Moldova’s economy.

The campaign has already resulted in a shift for the country wedged between Romania, an EU member, and Ukraine. While most of its biggest trading partner a decade ago was Russia, about 70 per cent of its exports – mostly fruit and wine – now go to the EU. Moldova has alternated between pro-western and pro-Russian courses since the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union.