The European Union is working with Arab states to push forward a peace plan between Israel and Palestine once the Gaza war is over, and perhaps even sooner, a senior EU diplomat has told The National.
European and Arab officials are working to stage an international conference ahead of full-scale peace negotiations, possibly in Spain.
With diplomatic efforts intensifying to avoid the total collapse of the enclave, hopes have faded for a ceasefire being achievable in Gaza in the coming months, the EU's special representative for the Middle East peace process, Sven Koopmans, told The National.
A high-level preparatory meeting to discuss peace in the region should happen “sooner rather than later”, but “the fact that it is taking forever to get to a ceasefire means we also have to think again,” said Mr Koopmans, a Dutch diplomat, speaking ahead of a trip to the UAE and Qatar this week.
“A conference for the sake of a conference is not a good idea. It should have results.”
The prospect of a peace conference is being overtaken by the urgency of the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, which Mr Koopmans described as possibly falling apart in a scenario similar to what happened in Somalia's civil war in the 1990s.
“There is devastating violence and a complete breakdown of the social fabric. It is impossible currently to organise orderly distribution of any type of aid and there is no clear vision of what should happen when the fighting ends,” he said.
“Then you will have a violent, non-governed, or partially governed zone with people who have basically nothing and are all traumatised. It would be a catastrophe of immense proportions combined with an incredible amount of chaos.”
To make sure Palestinians “actually survive to live to the day of peace”, diplomatic efforts must focus now on allowing more humanitarian aid into Gaza, preparing the enclave for a post-ceasefire situation and ensuring the survival of the Palestinian Authority, said Mr Koopmans.
Israel has withheld tax revenue it holds on behalf of the Palestinian Authority and has redirected $35 million of these funds to families of victims of the October 7 attacks. This puts the PA's reform plans at risk, despite them being well received in Brussels when they were presented by Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa to EU members last month.
“The PA has an incredible financial disaster hanging over its head,” said Mr Koopmans.
A lot of political effort needed
Mr Koopmans recognised that “a lot of political attention is needed right now” to put an end to the conflict. But he also pushed back against criticism that the EU has been slow and relatively ineffective in its reaction to the war in Gaza due to internal divisions between member states.
Countries reluctant to appear as critical of Israel such as Germany, Hungary and the Czech Republic have slowed down the adoption of retaliatory measures to Israeli human rights violations in Gaza and the West Bank.
These include sanctions against extremist Israeli settlers that attack or kill Palestinian civilians, which were issued in the EU weeks after the US and the UK made a similar move.
EU countries have also been busy with national elections this year. In some countries, such as France, the Gaza war has become a highly sensitive and polarising topic.
Mr Koopmans cited an emergency meeting of Arab and EU officials in Oman after the October 7 attacks, describing statements given by the EU's foreign affairs minister Josep Borrell as “very forward looking”.
“He said 'we support Israel in its security and the need to support its citizens', and at the same time we say don’t overreact, don’t cut off Gaza from food and water because that would be contrary to international law,” said Mr Koopmans.
“Some in the media criticised him for that. I think everybody agrees with him now. If they agree with him today they should have agreed with him in October.”
There have also been calls from some EU countries to pressure Israel into engaging in peace negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, which it has so far refused to do, by reviewing the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
But such calls went unheeded until Israel shocked the international community last month when it violated an International Court of Justice ruling ordering it to stop its military offensive against Rafah in southern Gaza.
EU foreign affairs ministers then agreed on calling a meeting with Israel, which it has accepted, and the bloc is now internally discussing the meeting's agenda.
Yet just the fact that EU countries have considered reviewing the trade agreement, compounded with other statements such as calls for releasing PA funds, has angered Israel, and diplomatic relations have tanked as a result. This has further raised doubts about Europe's ability to influence Israeli policies.
Israeli officials refused to meet Mr Koopmans during his most recent visit to Israel and Palestinian territories earlier this month. Speaking to The National, Mr Koopmans downplayed the snub, saying that Israeli had reacted in a similar fashion during past wars in Gaza.
He was, however, keen to highlight positive offers the EU can make to Israel to encourage it to engage with Palestinians in peace talks. Based on its experience in rapidly ramping up military aid to Ukraine in the past two years, the EU believes it can contribute to Israel's regional security at some point in the future.
“If the circumstances are right, and we are not there right now, there is always more that we can do in terms of political, economic and security co-operation and integration,” said Mr Koopmans.
Such tools include the revival of an EU border mission at Rafah which was greenlighted by the bloc's 27 foreign affairs ministers last month. “It could have an expanded mandate and be in different places,” said Mr Koopmans.
Mr Koopmans has based his diplomatic efforts with the Arab region on the EU's so-called “peace day” that aimed to relaunch negotiations for a two-state solution with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.
The meeting took place in New York in September, one month before the Hamas-led October 7 attacks against Israel that killed around 1,200 people. Israel's military response in Gaza has killed more than 37,500 people and injured close to 87,000 others.
The peace-day effort, which reiterated long-held EU positions such as calling for an end to illegal Israeli settlements in territory meant to be part of a future Palestinian state, was paused but “still forms a basis of inspiration for all of us”, said Mr Koopmans.
The EU updated its vision for the region in light of the continuing conflict with a proposal of robust security assurances for Israel and Palestine conditioned on full mutual diplomatic recognition of both states in the region, according to a version leaked to the media in January.
The plan has since been modified, and it is not available to the public.
“I don't have a document that people can just put their signature on and it would be a peace agreement. I don't even have a draft of that,” said Mr Koopmans.
“What I have is a draft of steps to get there: how to set up a negotiation process; how to bring together all the things that you need to have a successful peace agreement.”
