Meshaal returns to take a firmer hold on Hamas



Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas's political bureau, has reversed his decision to step down. Whether this is a genuine change of heart or the springing of a slick political trap, it is best understood as good news for the Palestinians and the cause of peace.

Mr Meshaal, who has led Hamas's political wing since 1996, said in January that he would not seek re-election this year. The announcement was greeted with shock by Hamas members and by analysts, who concluded that Mr Meshaal's personal authority had been so reduced by his efforts at reform - including a new emphasis on unarmed struggle against Israel - that he was ready to give up.

Now, however, his move looks more like a way of sidelining internal opponents by making Hamas reflect on its relative weakness without him.

Mr Meshaal has proved himself a smart political operator in the difficult context of the Arab uprisings. He deftly moved Hamas's offices from Syria as that country descended into violence, and refused to endorse Bashar Al Assad. He tried to solidify links with Islamist organisations in Egypt and Tunisia, and moved the political office of Hamas to Qatar.

More importantly - and controversially - for Palestinians, Mr Meshaal has tried to mend the rift between Fatah, which controls the West Bank, and Hamas, which runs the Gaza Strip.

A unified Palestinian political voice is essential to any hope of reviving the moribund peace process; indeed the Hamas-Fatah discord has allowed Israel to argue that there is no unified Palestinian authority with which to negotiate.

A reconciled Hamas and Fatah would remove that excuse; indeed considering Israel's intransigence in recent years, Palestinian unity would expose Israel as the side least interested in meaningful negotiation.

But moving in that direction demands great courage from anyone aspiring to lead, or keep leading, Hamas. Powerful factions in Gaza have a profitable interest in the status quo.

Mr Meshaal's move promises to make him more secure in office, which would be a positive step toward the ultimate negotiated solution with Israel which is the only tolerable one.

Palestinian politics is always played in the shadow of regional political trends, and Israel's arrogance and bullying persistently poison the well of peace.

But Mr Meshaal has shown himself to have the right instincts in a rapidly changing region, and as things are Hamas - and the Palestinian people - stand to benefit from his return.

Prophets of Rage

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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