The future of Libya’s new government is as hard to predict as the people selected to lead it, with established heavyweight candidates surprisingly losing out in Friday’s election to political novices. Heading the new unity government is a three-strong presidency, led by Mohamed Menfi, a former ambassador to Greece. A cabinet will now be formed by new prime minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, a businessman from Misurata. Neither man has until now been a key player in Libya’s often chaotic political firmament. Both men are now charged with stabilising a fractured country and supervising elections due in December. Their election is charged with controversy: They were chosen not by the voters, or even by Libya’s two existing, rival, governments, but by the 75-strong Libya Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), which was appointed and supervised by the United Nations. The UN tried, and failed, to end Libya’s civil war with a similar mechanism once before. In 2015, it assembled the Libya Dialogue that chose the Government of National Accord (GNA) which controls Tripoli. However, the GNA was never accepted by the parliament in the eastern town of Tobruk, which operates its own government and deploys the Libyan National Army (LNA) controlled by powerful Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Field Marshal Haftar is a pivotal figure in Libya. Two years ago, emboldened by military success in the east and south, he laid siege to Tripoli. But last Spring Turkish military support for the GNA saw the LNA pushed back to Sirte, gateway to the eastern Oil Crescent which holds the bulk of Libya’s oil production. Since then, the LNA has reinforced the front line, leaving the eastern government in control of the Oil Crescent, a key advantage in the country that holds Africa’s largest oil reserves. The UN wants the new government to bring Tripoli and Tobruk together as the latest in a series of building blocks to create stability. A ceasefire was formalised in October with the creation of the so-called 5+5 military commission in Geneva, which allows both sides to rapidly negotiate any ceasefire breaches. In the autumn, the UN persuaded the two halves of the central bank, in Tripoli and Tobruk, to unite as one, bringing unity to Libya’s finances. Now, UN officials hope the unity government can provide the stability to organise the December elections. Acting UN envoy Stephanie Williams may be pleased that political unknowns are now in charge of Libya. In November she complained that the country was being held back by an entrenched political class she labelled “political dinosaurs.” The surprise in the voting was that two expected winners did not get places. The expected winning ticket was an alliance of Aguila Saleh, the speaker of the Tobruk parliament, and GNA interior minister Fathi Bashagha. Between them, the two men have substantial political support, but a narrow majority of the smaller players in the LPDF united to elect what may amount to a technocratic government. Both Mr Saleh and Mr Bashagha have formally given the new government their support, as have many outside nations, notably the United States, with Joe Biden’s administration expected to take a greater foreign policy interest in Libya than Donald Trump. Among declarations of support was one from Greece, notable because last year it expelled then-ambassador Mr Al Menfi in protest at a deal the GNA agreed with Turkey to claim disputed territory in the Mediterranean for gas drilling. But Greek officials have made clear their protest was against the GNA, not Mr Al Menfi personally. Optimists will hope the new administration will provide a technocratic umbrella to, if not unite the country, then at least supervise the December elections. Pessimists, meanwhile, note that Tobruk is unlikely to dissolve its own government, and the power of a new cabinet, due to be picked in the next 21 days, will be limited. The most important facet of the new administration is the likelihood that it will get international recognition, a status that gives it access to Libya’s all-important oil wealth and thus the budget. Its other advantage is that the Sirte front line is stable. Both armies are deployed in strength south of the town, and both know an offensive would be difficult and costly. This balance of forces may mean, in the short term at least, a new round of war is unlikely. That should leave the new government free to concentrate on its most important task – supervising the December elections. First will come the task of deciding what form the newly elected government will be, with Libya’s factions yet to agree on a future constitution and the division of power between a future president and parliament. If the new government manages this election process, and keeps the peace, it will be judged a success.
