Lebanon’s parliament braced for post-election power struggle

Failure of Lebanese political parties to form a government could jeopardise arrival of international aid

An electoral worker sits next to ballot boxes, at the Justice Palace, in Jdeideh. Reuters

A soldier stands guard as ballots are counted at the Justice Palace. Reuters

Jad Ghosn, an opposition candidate, gestures as people wait for the announcement of official election results, in Jdeideh. Reuters

Lebanese Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi announces the final results for some districts. EPA

Opposition candidate Yassin Yassin gestures as he is greeted by supporters in Jeb Jennin, West Bekaa. Reuters

Supporters of the Lebanese Forces take to the streets during parliamentary elections in the Ashrafieh district of Beirut. Bloomberg

Lebanon headed to the polls with its economy in the grip of hyperinflation. Bloomberg

Lebanese youths supporting Hezbollah and Amal movement wave their party flags after parliamentary elections in a suburb of Beirut. EPA

Supporters of Lebanon's Shiite groups Hezbollah and Amal lift their flags during a motorbike rally after voting. AFP

Children swim in an inflatable pool that supporters of former prime minister Saad Hariri installed to illustrate their intention to boycott parliamentary elections in Beirut, Lebanon. AP Photo

Voters queue to place their vote in parliamentary elections in Beirut, Lebanon. EPA

Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, stands in a polling booth to vote in Tebnin. Reuters

Voters register at a polling station in Beirut. Bloomberg

Lebanese President Michel Aoun follows the parliamentary elections on screens from the Presidential Palace in Beirut. AP

A Lebanese woman shows her inked finger after she cast her vote at a polling station in Beirut. AP

Voters look at a list of candidates at a polling station in Beirut. Bloomberg

Lebanese policemen help a voter into a polling station in Beirut. AP

A Lebanese voter casts her ballot paper in Beirut. EPA

Gyorgy Holvenyi (R), chief observer of the European Union election observation mission, visits a polling station in Beirut. EPA

Lebanese people wait to vote during parliamentary elections in the capital city. EPA

Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, Grand Mufti of Lebanon, casts his ballot paper during parliamentary elections in Beirut. EPA

People queue to cast their votes in the Lebanese capital. AP

Posters in Al Tariq Al Jadida, Beirut, depict Lebanon’s former prime minister Saad Hariri. Reuters

A woman prepares her ballot at a polling station in a southern suburb of Beirut. AFP

Former prime minister Hassan Diab, who succeeded Saad Hariri, casts his ballot in Beirut. AFP

A voter checks lists for the parliamentary election at a polling station in the Lebanese capital Beirut. AFP

A woman waits to vote in Beirut. EPA

Security forces stand guard at Nur Square on the southern entrance of the northern Lebanese port city Tripoli. AFP

Former Lebanese prime minister Fouad Siniora casts his vote at a polling station during the parliamentary election, in Sidon, southern Lebanon. Reuters

A man check voters' lists in the capital Beirut. AP

A woman votes in Lebanon's parliamentary elections in Beirut. AP

Police check the ID of voters outside a polling station near the Lebanese coastal city of Byblos (Jbeil), north of Beirut. AFP

A voter dips her finger in ink after casting her ballot in the parliamentary election at a polling station near Byblos. AFP

A Lebanese woman shows her ink-marked thumb after voting in Shmustar, Bekaa valley. EPA

People queueing to vote at Ras El Nabeh Public School for Girls. Fatima Al Mahmoud/ The National

The leader of Lebanon’s largest Christian party indicated on Thursday that it was preparing for a power struggle with Hezbollah and its allies.

Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces, said he rejected a consensus government and would vote against the re-election of parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally who has held the position since 1992.

Voting on Sunday passed without major incident and Iran-backed Hezbollah lost the clear majority it had in the outgoing parliament, winning, along with its allies, 59 seats out of a total of 128.

With 19 seats, the Lebanese Forces control the next biggest parliamentary bloc, while its Christian rival, the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement, has 18.

Lebanon’s political parties normally favour consensus governments. This also delays decision-making and is widely viewed as the root cause of the country’s economic collapse in 2019.

Lebanese Forces sources say that negotiating with Hezbollah and its allies is pointless, because they previously failed to implement reforms when they had the opportunity to do so.

But analysts said the current political deadlock could further imperil Lebanon’s finances.

In a speech, Mr Geagea said the “new majority” was formed of “big and small parties and coalitions” that agreed that no group other than the army should be allowed to carry weapons.

Hezbollah kept its arms after the end of the 1975-1990 civil war.

The Lebanese Forces leader sought to present himself as a unifying figure against Hezbollah, saying he and his party “reject a national ‘soup government’”, in apparent reference to the consensus governments that Lebanese political parties normally favour.

Mr Geagea said he would “support an effective government that has a clear political programme” and stressed the Lebanese Forces’ “constant endeavour to co-ordinate with all forces of change and opposition that are present in the country”.

Yet analysts said a protracted power struggle and political paralysis could have severe consequences.

Mohanad Hage Ali is a research fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre, a think tank.

He said he believed both sides were responsible for the potential impasse.

“The Lebanese Forces is not the only party to blame. This is definitely also a result of Hezbollah’s approach to politics,” he said.

“There’s this dying body next to them,” he said, referring to the crisis-hit country. “And they’re not willing to co-operate in saving it.”

Lebanon’s central bank has less than $10 billion in reserves and spends about half a billion dollars a month on wheat, medicine and fuel subsidies in addition to propping up the local currency.

Poverty soared from 42 per cent of the population in 2019 to 82 per cent last year, according to the UN.

The International Monetary Fund reached a staff-level agreement with Lebanon in April but the country must first undertake “several critical reforms” for which an acting government is preferable.

Forming a government usually involves months of backdoor negotiations between political parties to decide on a new prime minister.

After the 2018 election, which gave Hezbollah and its allies a majority in parliament, politicians took nine months to choose prime minister Saad Hariri.

Mr Hage Ali said that negotiations could drag on even longer after Sunday’s parliamentary election. It remains unclear how the more than 20 opposition and independent candidates will position themselves vis-a-vis the Lebeanese Forces.

“There’s a high tone against the Lebanese Forces among civil society groups,” Mr Hage Ali said.

Despite Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, stating publicly on Wednesday that he was open to co-operation, Mr Hage Ali said, the Shiite militant group’s unwillingness to engage in a serious discussion about its weapons is taking Lebanon’s financial and economic future hostage.

“Hezbollah could offer to talk about its weapons and engage in serious reforms,” he said. “Meanwhile, the Lebanese Forces want to show that it’s standing firm by its platform and that it wants to face the elephant in the room, which is Hezbollah’s weapons.”

A spokesman from the Lebanese Forces rejected accusations of fuelling polarisation.

"It’s true that there’s an economic reality that needs to be dealt with, but how should we deal with it? By giving Hezbollah and Amal the power to shut down the parliament when things are not in their favour?" the spokesman said.

"If Hezbollah was serious about reforms, they could have implemented it throughout the past years when they had the majority and the absolute freedom to form and lead the agenda of the consecutive governments, but they didn’t."

'Humiliation and tension'

Mr Geagea may manage to embarrass Mr Berri, 84, who leads the Amal Movement, a political party allied with Hezbollah, by making his re-election difficult. There are no other serious contenders for the job because of the nature of Lebanon’s sectarian politics. The parliament speaker must always be Shiite Muslim, and all 27 Shiite Muslim MPs elected to parliament on Sunday belong to Hezbollah or Amal.

But Mr Berri has been continuously designated as parliament speaker since 1992 with a majority, or at least 65 votes, in the first round of voting. The Lebanese constitution allows up to three rounds of voting. The winner in the third round is elected by absolute majority.

“That’s bound to cause some humiliation and tension,” Mr Hage Ali said.

In October last year, seven people were killed when supporters of Amal and the Lebanese Forces clashed in the streets of Beirut over the inquiry into the huge explosion in the capital’s port in August 2020.

Karim Bitar of Saint Joseph University in Beirut, told The National that Mr Geagea’s new hardline position against Mr Berri was a break with the past.

“He always managed to maintain a relatively cordial working and personal relationship with Mr Berri,” Prof Bitar said. “But now Geagea realises that Berri has become very unpopular among Christians and particularly among the reformist youth.”

The new parliament’s mandate starts on Sunday. It will have 15 days to elect a new speaker.

Mr Hage Ali said: “The bottom line is that they can bicker as much as they want, but there’s an economic reality that needs to be dealt with.”