How much wheat is stuck in Ukraine’s blockaded ports?

Russia's invasion of its neighbour has caused global food prices to rise sharply

Umm Abdo prepares bread for the family in her home on the west bank of the Nile, by Egypt's southern city of Aswan. All photos: AFP

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted wheat imports to many countries, fuelling fears of higher prices and shortages.

With global supply chains already under strain due to the Covid-19 pandemic, a wheat-buying frenzy in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco – all of which depend heavily on imported wheat to feed their populations – lays bare the magnitude of the challenge governments face amid sharp rises in food prices.

The crisis was highlighted by the UN food agency, which this week predicted that poorer countries in northern Africa, Asia and the Middle East that depend heavily on wheat imports risk suffering significant food insecurity because of the war in Ukraine.

Of the five nations in northern Africa, Egypt’s wheat predicament is perhaps the gravest. The world’s largest wheat importer with a population of 102 million, Egypt relies on Russia and Ukraine for 80 per cent of its supply.

Egypt’s wheat is chiefly used to make the flatbreads provided for about 60 million citizens who are entitled to subsidised food.

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As prices of food surge around the world, millions of tonnes of wheat, barley, maize, vegetable oil and other food supplies are currently stranded in blockaded Black Sea ports in Ukraine — a country often called the breadbasket of Europe.

But it’s the impact on wheat that has captured global attention. The grain, according to the European Union research service Cordis, is the “leading source of vegetable protein in human food”.

Ukraine last year exported about 20 million tonnes of wheat, or 10 per cent of global wheat exports.

Estimates of Ukraine’s stranded wheat vary.

Earlier this month, the director of the UN’s World Food Programme Martine Frick said 4.5 million tonnes were stranded, “just sitting there,” in ports blockaded by the Russian navy waiting for export.

Millions more tonnes of wheat are in storage inland in Ukraine — but it's unclear how much of this would have been marketed abroad if the war had not happened.

Wheat is the third most-produced crop globally after sugar cane and rice, according to research firm Statistica, with 765 million tonnes produced globally last year.

But the majority of that wheat was consumed domestically, leaving around 200 million tonnes to be exported, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

For countries that cannot produce enough to meet domestic demand, exporters including Ukraine and Russia have been critical and they have been forced to pay a premium to secure supply.

Some of the major importers which have been vulnerable to the crisis are in the Middle East. But just how much wheat do they consume and import, compared with the estimated 4.5 million tonnes that is stranded?

The graphic below, based on forecasts for this year from the US Global Agricultural Information Network, part of the US Department of Agriculture, and the UN Food and Agriculture Office, shows a comparison of the stranded wheat and wheat production and demand in Middle East countries, some of which are now experiencing food insecurity.