Ed Smith, the author of Luck: What it Means and Why it Matters. Bloomsbury via Bloomberg
Ed Smith, the author of Luck: What it Means and Why it Matters. Bloomsbury via Bloomberg

What's luck got to do with success?



There is something incredibly romantic about the concept of luck. The notion that success or some kind of good fortune can be brought by chance rather than one's own actions is something that stirs our imagination. After all, I prefer to believe that I can become a millionaire by finding an abandoned sack of gold in a supermarket car park than thinking I have to graft for it.
But is luck still relevant in a day and age when we're taught that skill, ambition and determination are what get us to the top? A new book by the former professional cricketer Ed Smith, Luck: What it Means and Why it Matters, examines the history of luck, destiny and fate, from the ancient Greeks to the present day, and argues that the question of luck versus skill is as relevant now as it has ever been.
In his book, Smith says that football is the world's most loved sport because of its structural capacity to produce upsets and underdog victories. Luck, it seems, plays a significant role in the game, despite the fact that most major league footballers are highly skilled and trained. "The huge size of football's currency unit - the goal," he writes, "makes luck a far greater force in football than in any other sports."
Smith's main argument is that there are factors behind success other than graft - the main one being luck. But how can we explain the fact that some people are seemingly much luckier than others? The British psychologist Professor Richard Wiseman conducted a 10-year scientific study into the nature of luck, which revealed that, to a large extent, people make their own good fortune.
Prof Wiseman found that lucky people generate luck through four principles - by maximising chance opportunities, listening to lucky hunches, expecting good fortune and turning bad luck into good. It is therefore believed that optimistic and happy people are luckier than their depressed counterparts.
Dr Saliha Afridi, clinical psychologist and managing director at The LightHouse Arabia: Community Psychology Clinic in Dubai, says that happy people tend to be luckier, as they say yes to chance opportunities more often.
"Happy people surround themselves with networks and create new opportunities, rather than stay in their comfort zones," explains Dr Afridi. "They have more resources to cope with the 'bad luck' and turn it into good lessons. Happy individuals see the world as a good place and themselves as capable and deserving of good things. So often their depressed and anxious counterparts attract negative experiences because they are actually looking for it and on a subconscious level they believe they don't deserve luck or happiness."
Lena ter Laare, the founding partner of a Dubai-based marketing and PR firm for the flower industry, agrees with this statement. In 2005, a couple of extremely lucky encounters in Cartagena, Colombia, thousands of miles away from her then-home in Chicago, led her to meet Bas ter Laare, the man who would go on to become her husband and the father of her two children.
"When you're happy and secure in yourself, you bounce into the world expecting to be surprised, as opposed to trudging out there, looking for trouble," she says. "Maybe a better way to put it is that happy people have the eyes to recognise luck, as well as the ability to be grateful for it."
In summary, research says we should, much like Jim Carrey's character in the 2008 film Yes Man, accept opportunities as they arise and strive to turn bad luck into good. In light of this, I will no longer dread my weekly food shop. Instead, I will see it as an opportunity to look for abandoned sacks of gold in the supermarket car park.

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The five types of long-term residential visas

Obed Suhail of ServiceMarket, an online home services marketplace, outlines the five types of long-term residential visas:

Investors:

A 10-year residency visa can be obtained by investors who invest Dh10 million, out of which 60 per cent should not be in real estate. It can be a public investment through a deposit or in a business. Those who invest Dh5 million or more in property are eligible for a five-year residency visa. The invested amount should be completely owned by the investors, not loaned, and retained for at least three years.

Entrepreneurs:

A five-year multiple entry visa is available to entrepreneurs with a previous project worth Dh0.5m or those with the approval of an accredited business incubator in the UAE.  

Specialists

Expats with specialised talents, including doctors, specialists, scientists, inventors, and creative individuals working in the field of culture and art are eligible for a 10-year visa, given that they have a valid employment contract in one of these fields in the country.

Outstanding students:

A five-year visa will be granted to outstanding students who have a grade of 95 per cent or higher in a secondary school, or those who graduate with a GPA of 3.75 from a university. 

Retirees:

Expats who are at least 55 years old can obtain a five-year retirement visa if they invest Dh2m in property, have savings of Dh1m or more, or have a monthly income of at least Dh20,000.

The specs

Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8

Transmission: nine-speed automatic

Power: 630bhp

Torque: 900Nm

Price: Dh810,000

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Analysis

Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Europe’s rearming plan
  • Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
  • Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
  • Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
  • Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
  • Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
The specs

Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6

Power: 400hp

Torque: 475Nm

Transmission: 9-speed automatic

Price: From Dh215,900

On sale: Now

Key findings
  • Over a period of seven years, a team of scientists analysed dietary data from 50,000 North American adults.
  • Eating one or two meals a day was associated with a relative decrease in BMI, compared with three meals. Snacks count as a meal. Likewise, participants who ate more than three meals a day experienced an increase in BMI: the more meals a day, the greater the increase. 
  • People who ate breakfast experienced a relative decrease in their BMI compared with “breakfast-skippers”. 
  • Those who turned the eating day on its head to make breakfast the biggest meal of the day, did even better. 
  • But scrapping dinner altogether gave the best results. The study found that the BMI of subjects who had a long overnight fast (of 18 hours or more) decreased when compared even with those who had a medium overnight fast, of between 12 and 17 hours.
What can you do?

Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses

Seek professional advice from a legal expert

You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor

You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline

In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support

COMPANY PROFILE

Founders: Sebastian Stefan, Sebastian Morar and Claudia Pacurar

Based: Dubai, UAE

Founded: 2014

Number of employees: 36

Sector: Logistics

Raised: $2.5 million

Investors: DP World, Prime Venture Partners and family offices in Saudi Arabia and the UAE

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

Torque: 230Nm

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

On sale: Now

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
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The alternatives

• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.

• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.

• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.

2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.

• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases -  but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.