As we reported last month, Egypt's Orascom, the biggest Arab telecom company by subscribers, is entering a process of major change.
Reports now say the company is in talks to sell much of its operations to South Africa's MTN. Earlier this month, the investment bank EFG-Hermes raised the possibility that the company would be sold to Weather Investments, the holding company owned by Naguib Sawiris, Orascom's chairman.
Orascom shares are currently suspended awaiting a statement from the company,which is expected by the end of the day.
In an interview last month, Mr Sawris told me he was ready to give up majority control of Orascom, if that is what it takes to propel the company into the big leagues. He said he would like to remain an active leader of the company, even if it was part of a larger business.
What does all this mean? Put simply, we are slowly moving toward a world where telecommunications becomes more like car making and less like electricity retailing. Instead of each country having its old former monopoly and a couple of new local players, you will have 6-10 giant global players who run the industry thanks to massive, massive scale.
A combined Orascom / MTN would hit that kind of scale; alone, neither company will. And Mr Sawiris has long said he plans on being a driving force in one of those global giants. This is likely to be his only chance, because there is simply no way to build one of them from scratch in today's saturated world, short of convincing a sovereign fund to loan you a hundred billion dollars to go on an insanely expensive shopping spree.
Creating a global telco giant isn't a money thing: he and his family already have more money than anyone could ever need. Empire building is in his blood, and this is what he does, just like sharks hunt and puppies look cute. If Mr Sawiris takes the money and runs, it would be like a Lion King choosing to retire to the comfort of a nice cage in a zoo.
It is probably a bad idea to make a guess that will likely be proven wrong within hours, but here is mine: if MTN buys a major chunk of Orascom, look out for Naguib Sawiris playing a role in the new combined company, either as a major shareholder or a top leader. If that means this transaction becomes part cash, part equity, so be it. It could also mean the transaction looks more like a merger and less like an acquisition, even if Mr Sawiris ends up being a relatively minor shareholder in the new company.