Creating a tobacco-free generation could 'prevent more than one million lung cancer deaths' globally

Move would prevent 45.8 per cent of lung cancer deaths in men and 30.9 per cent in women, among that age group, claims study

The UK's previous Conservative government had proposed banning sales of tobacco products to those born on and after 2009. Getty Images

Creating a tobacco-free generation could prevent more than one million lung cancer deaths globally by 2095, a study has found.

New Zealand became the world’s first country to ban smoking for those who were born after January 2009. But the legislation was repealed the following year, before it came into force, to help fund tax cuts. The UK's previous Conservative government had proposed banning sales of tobacco products to those born on and after 2009, but the party lost the election.

Researchers wanted to know the impact the policy could have on deaths if it was introduced worldwide. Their simulation study – the first of its kind – suggests that banning the purchase of cigarettes and other tobacco products among people born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths in 185 countries by 2095.

That would prevent 45.8 per cent of future lung cancer deaths in men and around a third, or 30.9 per cent of deaths in women in the age group, according to the study, which was published in The Lancet Public Health journal.

Most of the potential preventable deaths would occur in low and middle-income countries, said the study authors.

“While rates of smoking in high-income countries have fallen in recent years, lung cancer remains a leading cause of death and disease. In low and middle-income countries, which have rapidly growing populations of young people, the impact of banning tobacco sales could be even greater,” said study author Dr Isabelle Soerjomataram, of the International Agency for Research on Cancer, an intergovernmental agency that is part of the World Health Organisation.

“Part of the reason why eliminating smoking could save so many lives in low- and middle-income countries is because they tend to have younger populations than high-income countries. Smoking also remains very common in many of these countries, while rates have fallen in many high-income countries. While we must redouble our efforts to eliminate smoking in all parts of the world, this is especially important in low and middle-income countries.”

Another study, the first in-depth forecast of its kind, found that reducing the global prevalence of smoking to around 5 per cent could increase life expectancy and prevent millions of deaths. Global life expectancy is projected to reach 78.3 years by 2050, but could increase by one more year in men and 0.2 years in women if smoking rates reduced to 5 per cent, according to the research, which was also published in The Lancet Public Health journal.

More men smoke than women. Between 1990 and 2022, smoking rates in males aged 10 and older plummeted from 40.8 per cent to 28.5 per cent, falling from 9.94 per cent to 5.96 per cent in females age 10 and over.

Smoking rates are expected to continue to decline, so that by 2050, an estimated 21.1 per cent of males and 4.18 per cent of females will smoke. The figures will, however, vary depending on the location, with rates for males ranging from 3.18 per cent in Brazil to 63.2 per cent in Micronesia, and among females 0.5 per cent in Nigeria to 38.5 per cent in Serbia.

In the UAE, an estimated 3.94 per cent of women smoked in 2022, compared to 17.4 per cent of men. That is predicted to fall to 3.5 per cent of women and 14.1 per cent of men by 2050.

But reducing rates further could result in fewer early deaths, reducing cases of cancer, ischemic heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

In countries where smoking rates are reduced to 5 per cent by 2050, there would be 876 million fewer avoidable years of life lost, with life expectancy standing at 77.1 years in males and 80.8 years in females.

East Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia would experience the greatest gains in life expectancy among males, with between 1.2 and 1.8 extra years of life gained. Among females, life expectancy would increase the most in East Asia, North America and Oceania, with between 0.3 and 0.5 additional years gained.

“We must not lose momentum in efforts to reduce, and ultimately eliminate, smoking around the world. Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by bringing an end to smoking,” said senior author, Professor Stein Emil Vollset, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, at the University of Washington in Seattle.