Gilani's setback can't be Pakistan's

These are perilous times for Yusuf Raza Gilani. After yet another political setback, the prime minister of Pakistan must be looking over his shoulder, wondering if he will see out the remainder of his term.

Mr Gilani's government lost its parliamentary majority on Sunday after the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) announced it would join the opposition, plunging the country into political turmoil. The liberal MQM is the third largest party in Pakistan, and although it holds only 25 of 342 seats in the National Assembly, still wields considerable political leverage.

But despite this latest defection from the government, one glimmer of hope for Mr Gilani is the unlikelihood that some other players, including the popular politician Nawaz Sharif, can mobilise effectively to form a majority coalition.

Still, the possibility of a no confidence vote in Mr Gilani, and a subsequent general election, now looms large, and the incumbent government will be looking for all the friends it can get. Mr Gilani can do a lot worse than to have Pakistan's army chief General Ashfaq Kayani by his side.

It is no secret that many Pakistanis still pine for the stability that the military can provide. And when it comes to military matters there is no more an influential a figure than the country's Gen Kayani. Although he has his fair share of critics who consider him too obsessed with neighbouring India, he still has strong support from many countrymen who see him as someone they can trust to protect them and who won't succumb to American interests.

Gen Kayani remains a controversial figure for the White House. The Obama administration clearly wants him as an ally despite the fact that he has far different interests in the fight against the Taliban. Understandably, Gen Kayani is looking further into the future than the US and their plan to withdraw from Afghanistan, and he may be the friend that helps Mr Gilani bring the stability that the country currently lacks.

Upheaval in the form of a no confidence vote might still be avoided. However, that is not necessarily good news for the country. Failure to engage all sides - the government, army and opposition - in deciding Pakistan's future will result in a status quo that will hinder political and economic progress and, above all, the region's security.