Will Bluesky eventually dethrone X as the global town square?

Platform is adding one million users each day since election of Trump as US president, chief executive Jay Graber says

Bluesky has many similarities to X, experts say, making it an easy transition for users. AFP

To celebrate Bluesky crossing the threshold of 20 million users, the decentralised social media platform's chief executive Jay Graber posted 20 facts about the company, among which was the story behind its name.

“The name Bluesky was originally a placeholder for the project started by Twitter to build an open social protocol,” she wrote, referring to the platform's origins many years ago before it was eventually launched in 2021 as an invitation-only app until 2024.

“It gave us time to grow the network responsibly and build our trust and safety team,” she added.

Bluesky started as a side-project initiated by former Twitter founder Jack Dorsey in 2019, when he was chief executive of the company. He chose Ms Graber, one of the engineers at Twitter, to lead the project. Coincidentally her first name, Lantian, means 'blue sky' in Chinese.

The idea behind the project was rooted in the vision for a social network that Mr Dorsey had always wanted at Twitter before he took the company public, a move he later regretted.

Once Twitter went public, it came under scrutiny of a board and increasing pressure to monetise. Bluesky, however, methodically kept evolving.

Throughout this evolution process, a series of unforeseen circumstances in the form of heightened political rhetoric, the sale of Twitter and the re-election of Donald Trump as US president, would help push Bluesky into the spotlight.

After Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter in 2022, Twitter severed all legal and financial ties with Bluesky Social. And following Mr Trump's victory on November 6, Bluesky was in the right place at the right time and has experienced a continued spurt of growth amid a backlash against Twitter and its Trump-backing owner Elon Musk.

All that said, media platforms can be fickle. MySpace had a surge back in 2003, only to whither away as Meta's Facebook skyrocketed to popularity. Even Facebook's influence isn't ironclad, with TikTok increasingly eating away at its cultural influence among younger and middle aged social media users.

Then, of course, there's Twitter now known as X, which was launched in 2006, and slowly but surely grew as a go-to platform for posting quick opinions, news stories and random life updates. Twitter grew methodically, and its no frills approach ensured stability amid the choppy social media waters.

That is of course, until it was purchased by Mr Musk, who cut jobs in the company, eliminated a lot of the human moderators, and proceeded to allow users who had previously been banned for posting hate speech on the platform.

The initial anger led to a mass departure of people and companies from the platform. Despite this, Mr Musk insisted that X, a name he chose himself, remained a global town square for those seeking to communicate. Some disagreed however, saying that the town square felt increasingly empty, tired and occasionally toxic.

Then, as the 2024 US presidential campaign heated up, Mr Musk became more vocal about his support for Mr Trump, posting dozens of messages of support each day, and bashing the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

Deactivations on X have surged

Ultimately, when Donald Trump emerged victorious, that was a tipping point that prompted hundreds of thousands more users to leave X.

Some went to Meta's Threads platform, others left social media altogether, but many turned to Bluesky.

With more than 20 million users now, Bluesky appears to have the wind at its back, although it is still a fledgling platform compared to X's estimated 400 million-500 million active users.

“For Bluesky, the fact that it's so similar to Twitter, and it feels the most similar, in terms of the vibe and personality with people posting regularly, really works in its favour,” said Matt Navarra, a social media consultant and analyst who was among the first to join Bluesky when it debuted back in 2021.

He added that, although other platforms have also seen a surge in interest, such as Meta's Threads and Mastodon, Bluesky's almost identical interface and prioritisation of real-time news and information made it a more comfortable transition for those seeking to leave X for something similar.

Meta, he said, has acknowledged that it does not want to prioritise news or political content on Threads, and Mastodon's cumbersome sign-up process has left an opening that Bluesky has been able to exploit.

“All the platforms out there are seeing a continued post-Trump growth, but Bluesky is at a big tipping point,” he said.

“Will Threads backtrack on its stance on political and news content? That seems unlikely but if they really want to make it a direct competitor to what Twitter is, maybe they'll change their minds.

Mr Navarra said his account was attracting hundreds of followers each day on Bluesky, and that he's now posting there on a more regular basis, seeing content engagement and in turn, clicks on his content.

The familiarity, he said, combined with the additions of elements that once made X popular, seem to be helping Bluesky maintain interest from curious users.

“You can really control your algorithm there, and you have more power in terms of content moderation,” he said, pointing out that Bluesky is tightly integrated with what's referred to as the Fediverse, making it easier for users on the platform to post their content on other social apps quickly and easily.

“That part, the Fediverse won't matter much to the average user right now, but it will help creators who want to have more ownership over their audience in the long run,” he added.

US election prompted another “Xodus”

X's value was never in its size but in its influence. In 2021, an internal survey shared with the firm’s employees revealed that 80 per cent of users came to the platform to “stay informed”. It became the place where fandoms, communities and experts converged – whether for breaking news, niche interests or cultural movements like Black Twitter and LGBTQ+ communities. Tweets often pre-empted news headlines, influencing media far beyond the platform itself.

It remains to be seen if those communities and news organisations who helped build X into a powerhouse, will be able to regroup and sustain interest on platforms, even those platforms that share a striking resemblance to X like Bluesky.

Yet some niche and minority groups have begun to thrive, using features such as the “starter pack” list to connect with like-minded individuals. Academics, researchers, journalists, and experts are rediscovering each other, creating what feels like a digital reunion.

Despite all the interest and curiosity, there are plenty of cautionary tales that show the road ahead might be bumpy.

When Threads launched, it broke the record for the highest number of registrations for any social media app ever. But the hype quickly died down partly because its user strategy was flawed and confused. Meta, which owns Threads, had a huge advantage in that it could tap into their existing Instagram and Facebook users for sign-ups.

At the same time, Twitter leavers were joining in droves and what happened was this: Instagram users, mostly influencers and content creators with little experience using text-based community discussions, joined threads expecting it as an extension of Instagram. The Twitter users who joined had hoped to find real-time, self-curated, informative feeds. But Threads delivered neither.

Bluesky doesn't have any qualms about social feeds filled with real-time information, and it also offers a non-algorithmic, chronological feed along with greater user control, harking back to the simplicity that made Twitter so beloved.

Yet again despite ticking all these boxes, maintaining user interest for any social platform has proven to be difficult.

Post, a once much hyped news-based social app that closely resembled X, followed a similar strategy like Bluesky, but ultimately, interest waned and the platform closed earlier this year.

Mr Navarra, however, noted that Mr Musk shows no indication that he plans to lower his increasingly partisan noise on the platform, which could cause more users to leave in droves, despite X's claims that user interest and engagement is at an all-time high.

“I expect Bluesky and others to see another growth spurt as more people become aware and grow tired of Elon Musk's X,” he said, also pointing out that fears of disinformation and AI generated content going unchecked on X, might also fuel another 'Xodus'.

“It's definitely more of a concern for average users as well as regulators,” he added.