Does Trump's US election win cast cloud over Cop29 climate talks in Baku?

Commentators see the returning US leader as a setback for global environmental action

Cop29 kicks off on Monday, November 11, at a time when many countries are dragging their heels over concrete climate action. Aziz Karimov / Reuters

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The Cop29 climate talks are set to kick off in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Monday, and they may have already been dealt a heavy blow.

As financial markets rallied at the prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency, those in the sustainability industry have expressed concern due to his previous stance on climate policy.

In 2017, Mr Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement – a legally binding international treaty on climate change with the main goal of limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

In 2021, the US rejoined the Paris Agreement under President Joe Biden, but Quentin Fouesnant, mentor and adviser at Ecoquest, told The National that he expects it to leave again as soon as Mr Trump takes office.

“For those of us in the climate and sustainability community, this election feels like a setback for global climate action. Many of my colleagues across the field have already expressed their concerns on LinkedIn and other platforms, worried about the potential impact on our collective progress,” said Mr Fouesnant.

Daniel Murray, deputy chief information officer and global head of research at EFG Asset Management, also expects the US to disengage with global efforts to flight climate change. This, he added, was a concern given its size and global emission contributions.

“This therefore represents a setback for the climate movement. It’s going to be harder to meet internationally agreed targets and we may see the US pull out of agreements designed to limit future damage to the environment,” he said.

'Progress might be slower, but it won't stop'

Countries at the Cop28 climate summit held in Dubai agreed on a historic deal to “transition” away from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy. The question now is whether Mr Trump will honour that deal.

Pushan Dutt, professor of economics at Insead, told The National that a setback for renewable energy may be on the cards. “One of his core campaign promises was to drill more for oil,” Prof Dutt said. “All this means that the US is going to take a back step for renewables, for development of carbon markets and less incentives for climate finance to fund the transition.”

However, hope remains. Jennifer Morris, chief executive of The Nature Conservancy, a US-based global conservation organisation, said a recent poll showed that 94 per cent of American voters supported the expansion of strategies to protect, better manage and restore forests, grasslands and wetlands to store more carbon and fight climate change.

Mr Fouesnant also said that, during Mr Trump’s last term in office, climate action did not stop. “During his first term, we still saw renewable energy grow in the US, driven by market forces, state-level policies and private sector demand – despite his administration’s pro-fossil-fuel policies,” he said. “We can expect that momentum to continue. Progress might be slower, but it won’t stop.”