Central Asia is the place for top regional or global picks. Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters
Central Asia is the place for top regional or global picks. Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters

Year of distress ahead for investors



Last year, a period of unrest in which three governments were overthrown in North Africa, was not kind to stock market investors.

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But even though the UAE experienced none of the turmoil that occurred elsewhere, including in the Gulf, and the Emirates even briefly appeared as a shelter from the storm, Dubai's main stock market nevertheless fell to its lowest level since 2004.

Investment banks have withdrawn equity sales and research teams from the UAE as part of tens of thousands of job cuts worldwide, while about half of the Emirates' brokerages closed as trading dwindled.

The dire performance of local markets should be a call to action for the Government if it wishes to retain the UAE's position as the region's financial centre, says Fathi Ben Grira, the chief executive of Mena Corp, an Abu Dhabi brokerage.

"Performances have been disappointing, it's obvious to say," he says. "Now we've reached the level where the local stock market will be seen on the international stage as a penny stock market."

The Dubai Financial Market General Index ended the year down 18.8 per cent at 1,353.39. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index fell 12.6 per cent to 2,402.28, its lowest level since 2009.

Underscoring the misery for traders, last month the UAE and Qatar failed again to secure an upgrade to "emerging market" status from the index compiler MSCI.

But turbulence on world markets hammered investments worldwide, with a stand-off over borrowing limits and a ratings downgrade for the US roiling markets during the summer. Meanwhile, the euro zone's debt crisis dragged on into its third year.

The UAE's markets, despite ending the year lower, performed better than many European indexes.

As a new trading year begins, we ask some of the UAE's investors and brokerages where bright spots could break through the gloom.

Eric Swats, the head of asset management at Rasmala Investment Bank

Top picks for this year Our focus from a top-down perspective is on the companies domiciled in those countries where there's clear and demonstrable economic growth.

What investors should avoid We see little of interest in Kuwait and in the Emirates. Egypt still is very much clouded by the political uncertainty and macroeconomic risks. We'd be reluctant to change those macro bets.

What investors should be watching out for this year The Government of Dubai has a lot of refinancing taking place this year. That's really where some of the downside risks lie. As we pass some of those headwinds, we'll see some upward interest or pressure on the equity markets.

What to expect from the euro-zone crisis There will be an indirect impact from some of the European banks not participating in the project finance and syndicated loan markets, which are important for the GCC.

Top regional or global picks Saudi Arabia and Qatar. These remain our top two markets.

Talal Touqan, the head of research at Al Ramz Securities

Top picks for this year Fundamentally, most companies are doing just fine. High-income generating stocks. Dividends are the most foreseeable component of income for next year. Three quarters have already been announced, and most companies that pay dividends will pay dividends again.

What investors should avoid Investment companies and finance companies that are directly related to the stock market. Telecoms and insurance companies are also facing tough competition

What investors should be watching out for this year Geopolitical risks for the whole region. I'm most concerned with what's happening with Iran.

What to expect from the euro-zone crisis The impact is more on sentiment rather than economic growth.

Top regional or global picks I'd keep my eye on Qatar.

Fathi Ben Grira, the chief executive of Mena Corp, an Abu Dhabi brokerage

Top picks for this year I'd look at private-equity funds. It might be right to invest in private companies to anticipate the next cycle of initial public offerings.

What investors should avoid We'll see a slowdown for the Qatar market. They'll have a problem with foreign ownership. The domestic companies are doing well, but they're doing well on local projects.

What investors should be watching out for this year Increases in foreign ownership limits. It'll attract investment from fund managers in Europe. They're not looking to European stocks now.

What to expect from the euro-zone crisis When investors take decisions to invest or not, they look at the London Stock Exchange or the CAC 40. Normally this shouldn't happen at all, but we'll have a problem in refinancing companies on the international markets.

Top regional or global picks Central Asia. Elsewhere, it should be more cherry-picking companies with strong fundamentals within Europe or the US.

Fadi Al Said, the head of investments at ING Investment Management

Top picks for this year We see the same companies we held in 2011. It's all a function of how the real estate and banking sector will do in 2012.

What investors should avoid The market will be still cautious on Egypt. It could be a very strong year or a very negative year. It all depends on the political outcome and how things will move forward after that.

What investors should be watching out for this year A turnaround in profitability for the banking sector and real estate. We're not taking the call that real estate could move higher, but we know that it's stabilised and the downside is limited.

What to expect from the euro-zone crisis The direct impact is cost of funding. It's more relevant to new issuers and debt refinancing. The more stress in the debt market, the harder and more expensive it will be to roll over debts.

Top regional or global picks The preferences will be UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Mohieddine Kronfol, the chief investment officer for fixed income, and Joe Kawkabani, the chief investment officer for equities, Franklin Templeton Investments

Top picks for this year With interest rates at very low levels and central banks predisposed to additional quantitative easing, equity markets and risk assets could deliver positive gains.

What investors should avoid Considerable challenges remain ahead largely from confidence issues for both markets and economies [globally]. Policymakers have to engage and listen to different stakeholders and adopt measures that build confidence and promote sensible economic policies.

What investors should be watching out for this year Outside the GCC region, we anticipate that 2012 will be the year of political transitions after the Arab Spring. New parliaments and governments will likely be elected with a mandate to reduce poverty and create employment. This should have a positive impact on their respective economies.

What to expect from the euro-zone crisis The GCC continues positively, with easier access to funding than most areas, and a burgeoning private sector. Therefore, the GCC has seen less of an adverse impact due to the euro crisis.

Top regional or global picks We are constructive on the Mena region as we are anticipating that the region's growth [will] be positive and faster than the developed world. We favour Saudi Arabia and Qatar, given their political stability, their growth profile and the valuation in the markets.

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The biog

Name: Greg Heinricks

From: Alberta, western Canada

Record fish: 56kg sailfish

Member of: International Game Fish Association

Company: Arabian Divers and Sportfishing Charters

What can you do?

Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses

Seek professional advice from a legal expert

You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor

You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline

In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support

The biog

DOB: March 13, 1987
Place of birth: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia but lived in Virginia in the US and raised in Lebanon
School: ACS in Lebanon
University: BSA in Graphic Design at the American University of Beirut
MSA in Design Entrepreneurship at the School of Visual Arts in New York City
Nationality: Lebanese
Status: Single
Favourite thing to do: I really enjoy cycling, I was a participant in Cycling for Gaza for the second time this year

The specs: 2017 Maserati Quattroporte

Price, base / as tested Dh389,000 / Dh559,000

Engine 3.0L twin-turbo V8

Transmission Eight-speed automatic

Power 530hp @ 6,800rpm

Torque 650Nm @ 2,000 rpm

Fuel economy, combined 10.7L / 100km

Sunday:
GP3 race: 12:10pm
Formula 2 race: 1:35pm
Formula 1 race: 5:10pm
Performance: Guns N' Roses

Match info

Australia 580
Pakistan 240 and 335

Result: Australia win by an innings and five runs

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%3Cp%3E-%20Congress%20is%20one%20of%20three%20branches%20of%20the%20US%20government%2C%20and%20the%20one%20that%20creates%20the%20nation's%20federal%20laws%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20Congress%20is%20divided%20into%20two%20chambers%3A%20The%20House%20of%20Representatives%20and%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%C2%A0The%20House%20is%20made%20up%20of%20435%20members%20based%20on%20a%20state's%20population.%20House%20members%20are%20up%20for%20election%20every%20two%20years%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20bill%20must%20be%20approved%20by%20both%20the%20House%20and%20Senate%20before%20it%20goes%20to%20the%20president's%20desk%20for%20signature%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20political%20party%20needs%20218%20seats%20to%20be%20in%20control%20of%20the%20House%20of%20Representatives%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20The%20Senate%20is%20comprised%20of%20100%20members%2C%20with%20each%20state%20receiving%20two%20senators.%20Senate%20members%20serve%20six-year%20terms%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20political%20party%20needs%2051%20seats%20to%20control%20the%20Senate.%20In%20the%20case%20of%20a%2050-50%20tie%2C%20the%20party%20of%20the%20president%20controls%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO

Watford 1 (Deulofeu 80' p)

Chelsea 2 (Abraham 5', Pulisic 55')

MAIN CARD

Bantamweight 56.4kg
Abrorbek Madiminbekov v Mehdi El Jamari

Super heavyweight 94 kg
Adnan Mohammad v Mohammed Ajaraam

Lightweight 60kg
Zakaria Eljamari v Faridoon Alik Zai

Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Mahmood Amin v Taha Marrouni

Light welterweight 64.5kg
Siyovush Gulmamadov v Nouredine Samir

Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Ilyass Habibali v Haroun Baka

Match info

Manchester United 0-0 Crystal Palace

Man of the match: Cheikhou Kouyate (Crystal Palace)

The bio

Who inspires you?

I am in awe of the remarkable women in the Arab region, both big and small, pushing boundaries and becoming role models for generations. Emily Nasrallah was a writer, journalist, teacher and women’s rights activist

How do you relax?

Yoga relaxes me and helps me relieve tension, especially now when we’re practically chained to laptops and desks. I enjoy learning more about music and the history of famous music bands and genres.

What is favourite book?

The Perks of Being a Wallflower - I think I've read it more than 7 times

What is your favourite Arabic film?

Hala2 Lawen (Translation: Where Do We Go Now?) by Nadine Labaki

What is favourite English film?

Mamma Mia

Best piece of advice to someone looking for a career at Google?

If you’re interested in a career at Google, deep dive into the different career paths and pinpoint the space you want to join. When you know your space, you’re likely to identify the skills you need to develop.  

 

In numbers

1,000 tonnes of waste collected daily:

  • 800 tonnes converted into alternative fuel
  • 150 tonnes to landfill
  • 50 tonnes sold as scrap metal

800 tonnes of RDF replaces 500 tonnes of coal

Two conveyor lines treat more than 350,000 tonnes of waste per year

25 staff on site

 

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20six-cylinder%20turbo%20(BMW%20B58)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20340hp%20at%206%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20500Nm%20from%201%2C600-4%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ZF%208-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100kph%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.2sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20267kph%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh462%2C189%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWarranty%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030-month%2F48%2C000k%3C%2Fp%3E%0A