Secretary General of The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Abdallah el-Badri believes the West needs to do more to avoid a double-dip recession.  AFP PHOTO/JOE KLAMAR
Secretary General of The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Abdallah el-Badri believes the West needs to do more to avoid a double-dip recession. AFP PHOTO/JOE KLAMAR

West needs to do more to head off recession says Opec chief



Western nations need to do more to bolster their economies and stem unemployment, said the head of Opec.

The spectre of a double-dip recession in the US and political deadlock over the European debt crisis is threatening oil producers, said Abdulla el Badri, the secretary general of Opec.

"It's really hampering the demand for oil," he said today in Dubai. "That stimulus package is not really working. Something must be done to introduce new manufacturing, new activities [so] it can solve unemployment."

Producers and consumers alike have notched down their forecasts for oil demand growth over the next two years amid the grim economic outlook.

Opec needs to revive discussions with China about its future energy needs to get a better assessment of how much oil Opec members should be pumping, el Badri said.

"We want to forecast exactly how much oil we should produce," he said. "30 million [barrels] is not like this bottle of water, you just open and pour it. A lot must happen to bring oil to the market. You have to spend a lot of money."

Opec member countries are investing US$312 billion over the next five years to bring 21 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market, he said. Opec's 12 members countries including the quota-exempt Iraq pump about 30 million bpd today.

Mr al Badri, who served as chairman of the Libya's National Oil Company during three runs from 1983 to 2006, said Libya could regain its pre-conflict pumping levels of 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) within 15 months. Oil infrastructure appears largely undamaged but computers, panels and small technical instruments that are critical to production could have been looted or damaged, he feared.

"I am afraid of what happened in Iraq," said Mr al Badri. "In Iraq there was a lot of instrumentation lost. And those instruments you cannot really buy them from the shop."

ayee@thenational.ae

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Online grocer Ocado revealed retail sales fell 5.7 per cen in its first quarter as customers switched back to pre-pandemic shopping patterns.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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