"More one-way tickets out of the UAE come next summer." This would be my prediction if I were the crystal ball gazing type.
But I'm not. I like to think my views are based more on fact than fiction - and I still say that more people will be leaving the UAE over the course of the next 12 months. If you don't want to be one of them, then belt-tightening is the order of these times.
Signs of cutbacks are all around us - a neighbour is just back from two weeks of unpaid leave. He works for an iconic Dubai-based outfit and is one of the lucky ones, having survived the first round of a staff cull. Employees are being made redundant elsewhere in the UAE too.
My vet, a great barometer for various things, says he is seeing a repeat of behaviour that came about in 2009 - kennels have been booked out over the past few years, with summer residents being deposited as early as the end of May and picked up about a week before school starts. This summer however, pets were left at the end of the school year, only to be picked up after about 10 days, with another bookings spike during the last 10 days or so of the holiday period.
We can only speculate, but I am of the thinking that this is because people are reluctant - or not able - to take a big chunk of time off over the summer for fear of losing jobs, or because they are taking on the workload of recently fired colleagues. The employed are going for the start or the end of the summer holidays to accompany their family on at least one leg of their trip.
My vet also reported more people abandoning pets because they had lost their job and had to leave the UAE.
Are you concerned about this? Many are - two out of ten in a recent survey said that losing their job was their biggest fear.
And what about the current price of oil - does this worry you? It should. It is true that only a small number of us expatriates work in the oil industry, but we're all dependent on it. This week the cost of a barrel dipped to its lowest level since 2009. After eight consecutive weeks of losses, oil is in what is considered red flag territory - so named because it could lead to more economic and social unrest across the oil-producing world. This is already in full swing in Ecuador, where the government started the year with a US$1.42 billion cut to the budget, and this month announced it was having to find another $800m in savings. Its oil revenue has been nearly halved since last year.
Closer to home, keeping the economy afloat is why Saudi Arabia is borrowing in the financial markets - selling bonds - for the first time since 2007.
So how are things here in the UAE? I am approaching it purely from our punter perspective:
Dreaded inflation is at its highest level since 2009 - and we all know that we're paying more for a tank full of Special 95. Little wonder then that restaurant owners tell me patrons have been cutting back on spending. This has been the case since the start of this year, and will probably become more acute as the months march on.
My own personal hit in the financial gut was an email sent out just as summer kicked in stating that the cost of renewing my company licence was more than doubling, with immediate effect. Ouch.
It is nigh impossible to budget intelligently when this sort of thing comes out of nowhere, and so the key to survival is to simply cut back on spending in general and make sure the emergency fund is well stocked.
Perhaps the IMF's warning to Arabian Gulf states will help you focus your mind.
At the start of the year, the IMF advised Gulf countries to cut state-funded jobs and say no to salary increases. It further downgraded growth in the UAE in April, and this month is continuing to recommend spending cuts and taxation. If anyone's for the chop, it makes sense that expatriates would be the first to go.
I will end with the official reasons for this month's hike at petrol pumps here.
To "rationalise consumption" is how the Undersecretary for the Ministry of Energy and chairman of the Fuel Price Committee, Dr Matar Al Nyadi, put it. I really like that line. His and the committee's priority is supporting the national economy, lowering fuel consumption, protecting the environment and preserving national resources.
All admirable things.
How about you take a leaf from this book and lower your consumption - generally - and protect your own resources. Simply put, get that belt tightened if you want to be around to enjoy the sunshine come next year.
Nima Abu Wardeh is the founder of the personal finance website cashy.me. You can reach her at nima@cashy.me and find her on Twiiter at @nimaabuwardeh
Profile
Name: Carzaty
Founders: Marwan Chaar and Hassan Jaffar
Launched: 2017
Employees: 22
Based: Dubai and Muscat
Sector: Automobile retail
Funding to date: $5.5 million
Company%20Profile
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THE SPECS
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Automatic
Power: 530bhp
Torque: 750Nm
Price: Dh535,000
On sale: Now
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers Henderson, Johnstone, Pickford, Ramsdale
Defenders Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Coady, Godfrey, James, Maguire, Mings, Shaw, Stones, Trippier, Walker, White
Midfielders Bellingham, Henderson, Lingard, Mount, Phillips, Rice, Ward-Prowse
Forwards Calvert-Lewin, Foden, Grealish, Greenwood, Kane, Rashford, Saka, Sancho, Sterling, Watkins
Company%20profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Company%20profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs%3A%202024%20McLaren%20Artura%20Spider
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20and%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20700hp%20at%207%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20720Nm%20at%202%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330kph%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1.14%20million%20(%24311%2C000)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
The specs: 2018 Genesis G70
Price, base / as tested: Dh155,000 / Dh205,000
Engine: 3.3-litre, turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 370hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 510Nm @ 1,300rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.6L / 100km
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
De De Pyaar De
Produced: Luv Films, YRF Films
Directed: Akiv Ali
Cast: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Rakul Preet Singh, Jimmy Sheirgill, Jaaved Jaffrey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3E1.45pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Green%20Oasis%20Trading%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh50%2C000%20(Dirt)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Meeqat%2C%20Saif%20Al%20Balushi%20(jockey)%2C%20Khalifa%20Al%20Neyadi%20(trainer)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2.15pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAl%20Shafar%20Investment%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh60%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Flying%20Hunter%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ahmad%20bin%20Harmash%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E2.45pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EThe%20Union%2051%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh84%2C000%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ibra%20Attack%2C%20Adrie%20de%20Vries%2C%20Ahmed%20Al%20Shemaili%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E3.15pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20ASCANA%20Thakaful%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh60%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Onda%20Ruggente%2C%20Royston%20Ffrench%2C%20Salem%20bin%20Ghadayer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E3.45pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECommercial%20Bank%20of%20Dubai%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh76%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Dignity%20Joy%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Musabah%20Al%20Muhairi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E4.15pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20Real%20Estate%20Centre%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh76%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tolmount%2C%20Xavier%20Ziani%2C%20Salem%20bin%20Ghadayer%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E4.45pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJebel%20Ali%20Racecourse%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh84%2C000%20(D)%201%2C950m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWinner%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERakeez%2C%20Tadhg%20O%E2%80%99Shea%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EBattery%3A%2060kW%20lithium-ion%20phosphate%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20Up%20to%20201bhp%3Cbr%3E0%20to%20100kph%3A%207.3%20seconds%3Cbr%3ERange%3A%20418km%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh149%2C900%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20Profile
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KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
Types of fraud
Phishing: Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
Smishing: The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
Vishing: The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
SIM swap: Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
Identity theft: Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
Prize scams: Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
* Nada El Sawy
WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
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Company%20Profile
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The Intruder
Director: Deon Taylor
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Michael Ealy, Meagan Good
One star
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.9-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E620hp%20from%205%2C750-7%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E760Nm%20from%203%2C000-5%2C750rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.05%20million%20(%24286%2C000)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Director: Jon Favreau
Starring: Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, John Oliver
Rating: 2 out of 5 stars