After Shanghai Expo, what happens next?

When the hugely popular Expo ends in October the question of what to do with the site will tax Chinese minds.

The UAE's pavilion, designed by Lord Foster, will be rebuilt as a permanent attraction in the Emirates.

The UAE's shimmering golden pavilion at the Shanghai Expo, built to resemble an Arabian sand dune, has proved a potent draw for visitors, attracting long queues of those keen to see its dramatic film shows introducing life in the country. Although the Expo wraps up at the end of October, the pavilion will be around much longer; it is set to be dismantled and sent to the UAE to be rebuilt as a permanent attraction.

Considering the pavilion was designed by Lord Foster, one of the world's most successful architects, it is no surprise it is seen as worthy of preservation. Similarly, the vast China pavilion will live on, becoming a museum at the riverside expo site, while some other expo buildings and the Expo Boulevard will remain. The Taiwan pavilion, one of the most striking at the event with a vast, revolving sphere, is due to be sent to the island, while the Swedish pavilion will be rebuilt in the city of Wuxi near Shanghai.

However, the fate of many other pavilions is unclear. Speculation has been rife in the Chinese press that some may be reprieved and will not, as expo rules dictate, be dismantled and, in almost all cases, scrapped. Some countries, such as Spain, have said they would be keen for their pavilions to remain in place in Shanghai. It remains to be seen if any will be allowed to do so, with the Chinese authorities having expressed concerns that buildings designed to last six months may be expensive and impractical to maintain for longer.

In all likelihood any pavilions that remainwill be a potent draw for tourists; the expo, after a slow start, has proved enormously popular with the public. More than 45 million people have visited it so far, 95 per cent of them Chinese, and the predicted tally of 70 million visitors made before the event started will probably be exceeded. Shanghai has benefited considerably, with hotels, restaurants and tourist attractions reporting increases in trade of up to 60 per cent. The event has brought in an estimated 79.5 billion yuan (Dh42.93bn) so far. The city has enjoyed 270bn yuan of infrastructure development, on top of 28.6bn yuan spent on the expo site.

Given all this investment, the bigger question than the fate of the pavilions is: what long-term economic benefits for Shanghai will the expo bring? On this issue, the city authorities are likely to turn to Beijing for lessons in what to do once a major international event finishes - or, perhaps more to the point, what not to do. Since the Beijing Olympics ended almost two years ago, the dramatic Bird's Nest stadium in the capital has struggled to develop a long-term role. It has hosted few major events mainly because China does not yet have the sort of well developed sports scene at national level that is needed to fill a venue as big as the Bird's Nest. Instead, the stadium acts principally as an attraction in its own right and while it has drawn in more than 13 million visitors since the Olympics ended, many in China feel it should be used more.

"It just sits there", said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor in the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University in Beijing. But he added that the problem of securing a long-term future for former Olympic or expo sites was "not unique to China". The watersports venue, the Water Cube, near the Bird's Nest, spent a year in a similar limbo, although after several months of refurbishment it has recently reopened as a water-based theme park. Similarly, organisers hope the planned addition of a museum and themed restaurants to the Bird's Nest could increase its appeal.

However, Mr Chovanec said, even if the investment in major events such as the Olympics or the expo were not recouped, the money spent was not wasted. The benefits, he said, went beyond those measured immediately on a balance sheet. "South Africa got a big boost from the World Cup, not just from the money it brought in but in the platform it gave South Africa and the fact it put South Africa front and centre in a very positive way," he said.

"That was [also] the intention with the Beijing Olympics and the Shanghai Expo. China wants to project an image of itself of 'look how far we have come'." Yet it remains likely that financial questions will loom large when the Shanghai authorities decide the fate of the expo site. It represents a prime area of land near the city centre and experts say it is likely that its value has rocketed as a result of hosting the event.

One suggestion is that it could be sold and used as an extension to a nearby financial zone, with likely spin-off benefits for the city's overall economy. But in keeping with the Shanghai Expo's theme of Better City, Better Life, which promotes urban sustainability and quality of life, officials may instead choose a more civic-minded option. Bala Ramasamy, a professor of economics at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, is among those advocating this and he insists there could be financial benefits, too.

"It could become a symbol of world unity, some model for the future where countries are able to share their culture and ideology. That's an idealistic concept but it would be a nice remembrance," he said. "It has to have a certain usefulness as well. If it could produce some economic output, it would not just be a concept but something that could actively produce value. There could be offices and entertainment grounds. We could see the concept of world unity actually working and coming into play."