Oil, war and women. That is the heady mix that will comprise the main body of the agenda when some of the world's leading minds (and a few journalists) gather at the Dead Sea Resort in Jordan tomorrow for the regional forum on the Middle East and North Africa.
The official theme of the three-day World Economic Forum event is a rather long-winded “creating a framework for prosperity and peace through public-private cooperation”, but what the 800 or so attendees really want to hear about are these three issues:
• The prospects for the global oil market, and the effects a prolonged period of comparatively low prices will have on regional economies and government spending.
• The regional security situation, especially relevant from the viewpoint of a country like Jordan that is on the front line of escalating conflict in the region.
• The ongoing debate about the empowerment of women in the region, as a matter of economic policy as much as an issue of social justice.
In all three, there is much for the WEF to chew over. The price of oil will be on virtually everybody’s mind in an audience dominated by businesspeople, and with a big contingent from Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis are exporting more of the stuff than they have for 10 years, but despite this, and prices continuing in the mid-$50s range, the American shale industry seems to be taking the new pricing regime in its stride. Rather than driving the US producers out of business with low prices, it looks instead as though the Saudis – and the rest of the oil-producing world – are going to have to live with the new market realities.
A recent report from Goldman Sachs (which will not be attending the event, surprisingly) suggests current prices could persist for the next five years. If so, the Saudi and other Opec governments will have to prioritise government spending, and accelerate the rate of economic diversification away from oil dependency. Let's see whether the WEF delegates agree.
On security, the WEF meets at a time of heightened regional anxiety, with recent military advances by Islamic State fighters likely to be at the forefront of the agenda. The organisation now controls territory uncomfortably close to the border with Jordan itself, which is likely to focus minds – and hopefully make forum security even more stringent.
Continuing advances have big implications for humanitarian issues in the region, which are always near the top of WEF agendas. King Abdullah of Jordan spoke eloquently of his country’s refugee problem a couple of years ago, but it has become even more pressing since. Expect that to be a major theme.
Also surprisingly, the Iranians are not represented at the Dead Sea (barring a last-minute surprise appearance), although they will be on everybody’s mind as the deadline for a nuclear deal with the US approaches.
Like the WEF annual meeting in Davos, the participants at the Dead Sea will be overwhelmingly male, but they will pay their respects to one of the big regional issues: the role of women in business, society and politics.
One of the very first sessions is billed a “a vision for gender progress”. WEF meetings are predictably in favour of moves towards female empowerment, not least because of the economic benefits from greater inclusion and its effects on productivity. But it is a tricky subject for a regional audience.
Two years ago, the Dead Sea was the scene of a major initiative by the Americans on the Palestinian question, with the secretary of state John Kerry pledging a US$4 billion injection to the Palestinian economy as a plank in the strategy to revive the peace process with Israel.
The $4bn fund was to have been administered by Tony Blair, the head of the Middle East “Quartet”, but, perhaps reflecting the deteriorating situation in Palestine as well as the rest of the region, little has been heard of it since. An update would be timely.
The Middle East WEF meets at a crucial time for the region. What it needs above all is wisdom, not sophistry.
fkane@thenational.ae
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THE BIO
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Closing the loophole on sugary drinks
As The National reported last year, non-fizzy sugared drinks were not covered when the original tax was introduced in 2017. Sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, 20 grams of sugar per 500ml bottle.
The non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
Flavoured water, long-life fruit juice concentrates, pre-packaged sweetened coffee drinks fall under the ‘sweetened drink’ category
Not taxed:
Freshly squeezed fruit juices, ground coffee beans, tea leaves and pre-prepared flavoured milkshakes do not come under the ‘sweetened drink’ band.
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
The five pillars of Islam
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Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
MATCH INFO
Watford 1 (Deulofeu 80' p)
Chelsea 2 (Abraham 5', Pulisic 55')
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
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SPECS
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