Iran's confrontation with the West has been a worthy headline-grabber for months, but it is mundane economic realities that will set the tone for oil markets in the months ahead.
Market concerns about the loss of Iranian oil exports because of sanctions and the potential for a Gulf-wide conflict that would hit exports from the region's major producers became the standard explanation for rising oil prices in the first quarter of the year. Increased tensions have fed a political risk premium that has tended to drown out more sober assessments of the shape of the oil market heading into the season when demand rises thanks to the summer holidays in the United States, when more Americans get behind the wheel.
No one can sensibly predict the endgame in Iran's standoff with the West over the country's nuclear programme, but there are good reasons to look through the fog of Iran's political risk premium as weak oil market fundamentals increase the risk of a significant move lower for oil. Fresh evidence is emerging that oil prices above US$120 a barrel undermine prospects for a sustainable economic recovery in Western Europe and the US; that they are encouraging investment in a new wall of oil supply outside Opec; and, crucially, are likely to increase risks to economic growth and therefore oil demand from the developing countries outside the Gulf.
The disconnection between Brent futures - widely used as a global hedge against supply disruption - and weakening prices for spot crude oil point to a market on the cusp of a slide. Even as Brent futures have tested three-year highs in recent weeks, trading in Russian crude oil in the Mediterranean has hit year lows, and North Sea crudes are also off their peaks.
A well-flagged initiative by the US, likely to be backed by the United Kingdom and France, to deploy oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve will also help to keep any fresh price rallies in check. While a release of oil from storage tanks is unlikely to win the support of the International Energy Agency and its other member countries, the US has made it clear it is ready and willing to pull the trigger on releasing back-up barrels if prices remain high.
Early evidence on the impact of new US and European sanctions against Iran suggests that Iran's oil exports have dipped by 250,000 barrels per day (bpd). Some Wall Street analysts believe that number may rise as high as 1 million bpd over the next few months. But those familiar with Iran's oil marketing point to the National Iranian Oil Company's readiness under pressure to sweeten credit terms and establish new intermediaries and financial settlement arrangements that will over time limit the impact of the sanctions.
Recent reassurances from Saudi Arabia - the largest global oil exporter - on oil supply indicate a fresh determination to drive the froth out of the oil price. The kingdom's commitment to meeting any additional call on its crude has been underlined by senior officials on multiple occasions and should not be doubted. But it is Saudi Arabia's view that Asian markets are softening that is most telling.
China, the world's fastest-growing major oil consumer, is grappling with slowing economic growth, most recently reflected by slowing imports, even though data suggests that oil imports are holding close to record highs. Whether this is driven by consumption or strategic stock-buying is difficult to discern, but the risk is that any tangible reduction in Iranian-related risks will diminish strategic buying.
Finally, high oil prices are encouraging investment in new oil developments, particularly in the US and Canada, where insufficient export routes are now the main constraint to higher oil production. With rising oil supply from countries outside Opec set to push its way into the market in the next five years, even explosive headlines on Iran may struggle to keep oil prices near present highs.
Bill Farren-Price is the founder and chief executive of Petroleum Policy Intelligence, a consultancy
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'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group B
Barcelona v Inter Milan
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
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Madrid Open schedule
Men's semi-finals
Novak Djokovic (1) v Dominic Thiem (5) from 6pm
Stefanos Tsitsipas (8) v Rafael Nadal (2) from 11pm
Women's final
Simona Halep (3) v Kiki Bertens (7) from 8.30pm
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Abu Dhabi race card
5pm Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic Prestige | Dh110,000 | 1,400m
5.30pm Abu Dhabi Colts Classic Prestige | Dh110,000 | 1,400m
6pm Abu Dhabi Championship Listed | Dh180,000 | 1,600m
6.30pm Maiden | Dh80,000 | 1,600m
7pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap | Dh80,000 | 1,400m
7.30pm Handicap (TB) |Dh100,000 | 2,400m
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.3-litre, turbo four-cylinder
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Power: 300hp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: Dh189,900
On sale: now
Retail gloom
Online grocer Ocado revealed retail sales fell 5.7 per cen in its first quarter as customers switched back to pre-pandemic shopping patterns.
It was a tough comparison from a year earlier, when the UK was in lockdown, but on a two-year basis its retail division, a joint venture with Marks&Spencer, rose 31.7 per cent over the quarter.
The group added that a 15 per cent drop in customer basket size offset an 11.6. per cent rise in the number of customer transactions.
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Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
Ovo's tips to find extra heat
- Open your curtains when it’s sunny
- Keep your oven open after cooking
- Have a cuddle with pets and loved ones to help stay cosy
- Eat ginger but avoid chilli as it makes you sweat
- Put on extra layers
- Do a few star jumps
- Avoid alcohol