People who claim to see the future have always been regarded with suspicion. And not without cause: all too often "seers" have been revealed to be at best misguided, if not charlatans or just plain mad.
But the opprobrium they face pales beside that endured by scientists brave - or foolish - enough to take the idea of "precognition" seriously.
One of this very rare breed is Dr Daryl Bem, emeritus professor of psychology at Cornell University in the United States. For decades he has combined a distinguished career in conventional research with a parallel role as arguably the most respected scientist prepared to investigate precognition.
Over the years, he has performed many experiments to investigate whether ordinary people can see into the future. And by the standards of conventional science, what he has amassed constitutes compelling evidence that they can.
So why has this not made headlines around the world, and sparked research into how we can all hone our abilities to see the future? The reason is that Dr Bem has met the same fate as that of every other researcher into precognition: his results have been ignored, decried or dismissed as showing nothing more than the existence of ESP: "Error Some Place".
But now he is making headlines, having sparked a storm of controversy by having evidence for precognition accepted by a leading academic journal, the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, based on experiments involving more than 1,000 people.
Until now, most studies have been twists on a simple theme: predicting the outcome of a coin toss. Random guessing will produce a hit rate of just 50 per cent, while the existence of precognition should boost that somewhat.
If performed, say, 100 times, calling correctly 60 times would represent what scientists call a "statistically significant" hit rate - implying that the chances of doing so well by fluke alone are pretty low.
But that is not the same as saying that precognition must therefore exist, and sceptics have not stinted in offering a host of alternative explanations, ranging from faulty coins to cheating.
Dr Bem has put huge effort into eliminating these other explanations. But what makes his work stand out is that he has gone beyond merely trying to show whether precognition exists. Instead, he has looked at whether the phenomenon has features commonly seen in conventional mental abilities.
For example, it is well-known that stronger stimuli typically produce a stronger response in humans. So Dr Bem got people to guess which of two computer screens was about to show an image. Random guessing would produce a 50:50 hit rate - and that was what the experiment found when the image was of something innocuous, like a wedding. But when he used more shocking images taken from the internet, the hit rate went up. Not by much - it was around 53 per cent - but statistically significant.
Dr Bem has gone further, checking out other characteristics of precognition, such as whether it allows "habituation", in which people respond less strongly to images they have already seen. Taken together, the results suggest precognition does have the features expected of a real mental ability. The overall effect is not huge, but the chances that his results are fluke alone are just one in 100 billion.
So precognition is real; case closed - or at least, it would be if the effect under study were, say, the effectiveness of a new cancer drug.
But for many scientists, precognition is so wacky that they are prepared to give it a much rougher ride than any life-saving therapy. Even before Dr Bem's results appeared, sceptics were lining up to denounce them as crazy. One scientist told TheNew York Times that if any of the results were true "we would have to rethink everything about the nature of the universe".
Some more thoughtful sceptics are insisting the results confirm long-held suspicions about flaws in how scientific evidence is assessed. They are calling for the use of techniques that take account of the inherent plausibility of whatever is being investigated. In the case of precognition, many would deem the inherent plausibility so low that Dr Bem's findings would not come close to making the case.
Other critics have pointed out that the findings have already failed the ultimate test of any genuine effect: replication. Which is true: some scientists have failed to confirm Dr Bem's findings, but others have succeeded.
Just suppose, however, that the sceptics are wrong and precognition really does exist. Would it demand a "rethink of everything"? Not at all; in fact, it would be right in line with one of the cornerstones of our present understanding of the universe: quantum theory. Experiments in the early 1980s showed that our common-sense perceptions of how the universe work are unreliable, and that it is just possible that the past and the future can be temporarily switched round.
At least one Nobel Prize-winning quantum physicist, Prof Sir Tony Leggett of the University of Illinois, believes this means we cannot dismiss the idea of precognition out of hand.
Whether Dr Bem has brought us to the brink of a major discovery remains to be seen. What is clear is that we will never know for sure unless many more scientists show as much courage as Dr Bem and join the quest to find out.
Robert Matthews is Visiting Reader in Science at Aston University, Birmingham, England.
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The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
More from UAE Human Development Report:
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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SPEC%20SHEET
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Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
The Cairo Statement
1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations
2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred
3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC
4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.
5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.
6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
Results
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Arsenal's pre-season fixtures
Thursday Beat Sydney 2-0 in Sydney
Saturday v Western Sydney Wanderers in Sydney
Wednesday v Bayern Munich in Shanghai
July 22 v Chelsea in Beijing
July 29 v Benfica in London
July 30 v Sevilla in London
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Porsche Taycan Turbo specs
Engine: Two permanent-magnet synchronous AC motors
Transmission: two-speed
Power: 671hp
Torque: 1050Nm
Range: 450km
Price: Dh601,800
On sale: now
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
HOW%20TO%20ACTIVATE%20THE%20GEMINI%20SHORTCUT%20ON%20CHROME%20CANARY
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The five pillars of Islam