IMF officials arrive in Cairo today as the Egyptian government seeks to seal a US$3.2 billion (Dh11.75bn) loan to help to stave off a fiscal crisis.
Stock market investors are betting on a successful outcome to the talks and have pushed the main benchmark up 43 per cent so far this year.
"They need to strike a deal to avert a crisis, and time is not on their side," said Jean-Michel Saliba, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Egypt could manage to hold the fort until June, but if there's any more delay to a deal, the economic situation is likely to get much worse."
The cash is needed to help to bolster confidence in the economy and shore up the government's increasingly shaky finances. Egypt's budget deficit for the financial year ending in June is expected to reach 11.7 per cent of GDP, higher than previous estimates of 10 per cent, official data showed last week.
The money is also required to access support from the United States, GCC states and other foreign investors. Egypt needs about $11bn of external funding over the next two years, Mumtaz Al Said, the finance minister has estimated.
IMF staff are assessing a government plan that lays out a series of reforms. Masood Ahmed, the director of the IMF's Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia department, will head the five-day visit, said an IMF spokesman.
"As we have said in the past, we are ready to support a programme that enjoys broad political ownership and addresses effectively the challenges that Egypt is currently facing," he said.
But the loan deal is far from certain. Egypt's interim military rulers last June spurned an earlier IMF offer, prompted by concerns about saddling future elected governments with unwanted foreign debt.
This time, disagreement about reforms being urged by the IMF could yet derail the process.
"There are still concerns there may be strings attached like reducing subsidies, which would … not be popular," said Khaled Sewelam, the director of research and publications at the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt.
If the IMF cash fails to materialise, gains in Egypt's markets may be lost, analysts have warned. Property and construction stocks have been the main beneficiaries recently. Egypt's cost of borrowing has fallen, with the yield on a 7 billion Egyptian pound (Dh4.24bn) treasury bill sale falling last week to the lowest in more than a month.
"An IMF loan will further help yields drop, Alia Mamdouh, an economist at CI Capital in Cairo, was quoted by Bloomberg News as saying. "If it's not secured, it will have a significant impact, not just on the yields, but also on the stock market and the pound because it would signal the inability of the country to do what's needed to garner the IMF's confidence."
tarnold@thenational.ae
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SERIE A FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Sassuolo v Bologna (11.45pm)
Saturday
Brescia v Torino (6pm)
Inter Milan v Verona (9pm)
Napoli v Genoa (11.45pm)
Sunday
Cagliari v Verona (3.30pm)
Udinese v SPAL (6pm)
Sampdoria v Atalanta (6pm)
Lazio v Lecce (6pm)
Parma v Roma (9pm)
Juventus v Milan (11.45pm)
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
The biog
Nickname: Mama Nadia to children, staff and parents
Education: Bachelors degree in English Literature with Social work from UAE University
As a child: Kept sweets on the window sill for workers, set aside money to pay for education of needy families
Holidays: Spends most of her days off at Senses often with her family who describe the centre as part of their life too
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014%20PLUS
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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FIGHT CARD
Welterweight Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Tohir Zhuraev (TJK)
Catchweight 75kg Leandro Martins (BRA) v Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR)
Flyweight Corinne Laframboise (CAN) v Manon Fiorot (FRA)
Featherweight Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Bogdan Kirilenko (UZB)
Lightweight Izzedine Al Derabani (JOR) v Atabek Abdimitalipov (KYG)
Featherweight Yousef Al Housani (UAE) v Mohamed Arsharq Ali (SLA)
Catchweight 69kg Jung Han-gook (KOR) v Elias Boudegzdame (ALG)
Catchweight 71kg Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Jerry Kvarnstrom (FIN)
Featherweight title Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) v Alexandru Chitoran (ROU)
Lightweight title Bruno Machado (BRA) v Mike Santiago (USA)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
pakistan Test squad
Azhar Ali (capt), Shan Masood, Abid Ali, Imam-ul-Haq, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Fawad Alam, Haris Sohail, Imran Khan, Kashif Bhatti, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Naseem Shah, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Mohammad Abbas, Yasir Shah, Usman Shinwari
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Scores in brief:
- New Medical Centre 129-5 in 17 overs bt Zayed Cricket Academy 125-6 in 20 overs.
- William Hare Abu Dhabi Gymkhana 188-8 in 20 overs bt One Stop Tourism 184-8 in 20 overs
- Alubond Tigers 138-7 in 20 overs bt United Bank Limited 132-7 in 20 overs
- Multiplex 142-6 in 17 overs bt Xconcepts Automobili 140 all out in 20 overs
if you go
The flights
Etihad flies direct from Abu Dhabi to San Francisco from Dh5,760 return including taxes.
The car
Etihad Guest members get a 10 per cent worldwide discount when booking with Hertz, as well as earning miles on their rentals (more at www.hertz.com/etihad). A week's car hire costs from Dh1,500 including taxes.
The hotels
Along the route, Motel 6 (www.motel6.com) offers good value and comfort, with rooms from $55 (Dh202) per night including taxes. In Portland, the Jupiter Hotel (https://jupiterhotel.com/) has rooms from $165 (Dh606) per night including taxes. The Society Hotel https://thesocietyhotel.com/ has rooms from $130 (Dh478) per night including taxes.
More info
To keep up with constant developments in Portland, visit www.travelportland.com
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5