Signs of turning tide suggest new wave of mergers

The driving force of M&A transactions at this time is still the US economy, writes Scott Moeller.

Every wave has its peak. Now that the M&A market is once again on the rise, with the first quarter of 2015 stronger than the corresponding period last year, are we seeing a new merger wave begin? Globally, I believe we are.

The fast start to the second quarter demonstrates this already, with the headline £55 billion (Dh305.83bn) announcement where the world’s second-biggest oil company, Shell, intends to purchase BG Group.

From both a local and international perspective, generally in the first half of 2014 there were huge levels of activity on equity capital markets, with large IPOs and transactions announced and a confident market, ready to take advantage of the opportunities that lay ahead. As we moved into the second half of 2014, although we saw a few speculative transactions appear, returns weren’t as expected, and there was a drop in total market value and activity levels.

Was this connected to the drop in oil prices? I personally don’t think so – but I am sure it certainly had an effect on market confidence levels, and possibly there lies the connection.

M&A deals require owner confidence, and this was certainly dented.

In 2015, there has been a correction in equity markets globally. Although now we are not seeing as many IPOs coming through, when we do the market is experiencing slower, more realistic timetables and more responsible processes. The competition for prized assets is also likely to be fierce looking ahead. In terms of sectors to watch, the momentum I feel is currently in life sciences; technology, media and telecoms, industrials; chemicals; and real estate. One of the recent surprises is interest in the consumer sector, with 3G / Berkshire Hathaway announcing their acquisition of Kraft.

The driving force of M&A transactions at this time is still the US economy, and it is looking to be full steam ahead in 2015. According to the law firm White & Case and the Cass Business School M&A Research Centre, there was a 51 per cent increase in mega-deals from 2013 to 2014, while Mergermarket said the total deal value of $3.3 trillion announced in 2014 was the highest on record for six years. With the US dollar also at a record high, it makes the positioning of the US much stronger when considering cross-border deals – and as US firms increase activity abroad, it will make for a more confident market globally.

Combine that with the dry powder on corporate balance sheets and you can see how this could turbocharge the M&A market, baring any major geopolitical events or natural disasters. In Europe, for example, according to Moody’s Investors Service, Emea non-financial companies held a total of $1.06tn in cash at the end of June 2014, an increase of 40 per cent since the 2008-09 financial crisis. So there certainly is available liquidity.

To keep real momentum in the M&A market in 2015, we must hold on to the confidence in the market. Buyers and sellers on both sides need to feel that this is the right time to do a deal, which also means becoming more confident and willing to meet price expectations. Then it becomes more a question of “when”, not the overarching feeling of many in the past few years of “if”. This will trigger even higher M&A activity levels.

Scott Moeller is director of the M&A Research Centre at Cass Business School, City University London, and a former managing director at Deutsche Bank

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