Saudi Arabians are not spending as much as some economists have predicted, leading to concerns that consumption in the region’s juggernaut economy could be stalling.
While the kingdom’s economy has been on a roll — helped by firm oil prices — some economists are concerned that higher interest rates and a lack of fresh stimulus may dampen consumption growth. That may have a knock-on effect on the overall economy later this year.
“There are signs that domestic demand is weakening,” said William Jackson, an emerging markets economist at the London-based Capital Economics. “Credit growth has slowed in recent months while non-oil imports — a proxy for consumer spending and investment — continue to fall in annual terms. This data chimes with other low-profile indicators that suggest the consumer spending may not be as strong as people think.”
Capital Economics forecasts that GDP growth in Saudi Arabia will slow to between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent over the next couple of years, well below the 6 per cent to 7 per cent seen over the past decade. Still, GDP growth in February may have accelerated to 5 per cent year-on-year from 4 per cent at the end of last year, mostly on a rebound in the oil sector, according to Mr Jackson.
Unlike many emerging markets, countries in the Arabian Gulf have been protected from a fall in asset prices this year because of current-account surpluses and currencies pegged to the US dollar.
Despite the recent dip, consumer lending has been on the rise since Saudi Arabia started a $130 billion social spending stimulus package in the aftermath of the Arab Spring in 2011. Loans to individuals rose 21 per cent last year to a record 332bn riyals (Dh325.15bn), according to data from the country’s central bank.
Demand for property loans last year increased 26 per cent while financing for cars advanced 17 per cent, according to the central bank. That may slow with higher US Federal Reserve interest rates next year and the absence of further stimulus by the government of Saudi Arabia.
“Lending is not going to grow at the same rate,” said Paul Wetterwald, the chief economist at Crédit Agricole Private Banking. “Nominal GDP is plateauing somewhat. We are at a very high level and it is difficult to go much higher very quickly. Also, the transfer from the state to the households that followed the Arab uprisings they are not likely to be repeated every year. Oil prices have more or less stabilised, so you don’t have this bonanza of price increases that you can redistribute to the population.”
Mr Wetterwald said he was not too concerned about the rise of US interest rates, pointing out that there was enough demand for credit that higher rates would not pose too much of a constraint. He noted that while the monthly purchasing managers index in Saudi Arabia — a gauge of the non-oil private sector — declined last month to 57 from 58.6 in February, it was still above the crucial level of 50 — a threshold that indicates continued economic growth.
Even though most banks in Saudi Arabia are set to report record first-quarter earnings because of the increase in demand for loans by consumers, Al Rahji Bank, the country’s biggest publicly traded lender, said its first quarter profit fell to 1.71bn riyals from 2.05bn riyals last year because of increased expenses. Demand for credit by businesses has also been easing, leaving the bank with three consecutive quarters of lower profit growth, according to Bloomberg data.
mkassem@thenational.ae
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The%20specs
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The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 720hp
Torque: 770Nm
Price: Dh1,100,000
On sale: now
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SE%20(second%20generation)
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If you go
The flights
Emirates (www.emirates.com) and Etihad (www.etihad.com) both fly direct to Bengaluru, with return fares from Dh 1240. From Bengaluru airport, Coorg is a five-hour drive by car.
The hotels
The Tamara (www.thetamara.com) is located inside a working coffee plantation and offers individual villas with sprawling views of the hills (tariff from Dh1,300, including taxes and breakfast).
When to go
Coorg is an all-year destination, with the peak season for travel extending from the cooler months between October and March.
Kanye%20West
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MATCH INFO
Barcelona 4 (Messi 23' pen, 45 1', 48', Busquets 85')
Celta Vigo 1 (Olaza 42')
MATCH INFO
What: Brazil v South Korea
When: Tonight, 5.30pm
Where: Mohamed bin Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae
India squad
Virat Kohli (captain), Rohit Sharma, Mayank Agarwal, K.L. Rahul, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Rishabh Pant, Shivam Dube, Kedar Jadhav, Ravindra Jadeja, Yuzvendra Chahal, Kuldeep Yadav, Deepak Chahar, Mohammed Shami, Shardul Thakur.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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