There seems no end to the stream of good news coming out of the energy sector.
After the International Energy Agency (IEA) last November hailed the United States shale revolution by predicting that the country would become the biggest producer of oil by the end of the decade, the compliments have now been returned.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US government department that releases energy data, this week released a report updating on the world's shale potential.
The term shale revolution is shorthand for the enormous boost in gas - and increasingly oil - supply in the US and Canada, enabled by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, an extraction technique that releases hydrocarbons from previously inaccessible rock formations.
Oil and gas stuck in ungiving rock is not unique to North America - far from it.
The EIA emphasises this in its report, which states that estimates for recoverable shale oil worldwide have grown more than ten-fold to 345 billion barrels, increasing total reserves by 11 per cent. According to the report, 7,299 trillion cubic feet of shale gas would add 47 per cent to global reserves.
Shale is being talked about as a game changer, rightly so, and much is made of its potential to weaken Opec's influence on the oil markets.
One of the most significant points made by the report, however, is not in what it says, but in what it has left out.
While many parts of the world are extensively analysed - Russia for instance has even bigger reserves than the US - the Gulf is literally a blank space on EIA's shale map. The biggest source of conventional oil and gas has been left out because data for the region are not sufficient to make a proper assessment of its shale potential.
This is a problem elsewhere, and even the reservoirs considered by the report exist in very different conditions to those in the US.
The US, a major consumer and traditionally a big producer of oil and gas, benefits from a vast pipeline system, a wealth of geological data and about five times the amount of the drilling rigs present in the Gulf, says Sadad Al Husseini, a former executive vice president for upstream operations at Saudi Aramco.
When conventional gas production dried up, this infrastructure, which also includes oilfield services companies and easy access to financing, was there to deliver when fracking made shale accessible.
"There is little doubt that [global] shale reserves are vast, however, one should never equate underground reserves with overground production, given the various constraints such as infrastructure, technology, availability of service industries, knowledge et cetera," says Amrita Sen, the chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects.
It is likely that the Gulf is home to significant shale reserves, given the scale of its conventional oil and gas reservoirs. If this is to be tapped, concerted efforts to analyse the rock formations that lie deep under the surface are essential.
"Before the decision can be made, one has to gather a lot more information about the resource itself," says Mr Al Husseini.
This is happening already. Saudi Arabia has committed to some test drilling, as have Abu Dhabi and Kuwait. In Oman, BP has already invested US$700 million in gauging the commercial viability of the Khazzan tight gasfield, where gas is trapped in deep lying rock formations similar to shale.
The British company expects to make a final investment decision before the year is out, but one key problem remains to be solved. Not used to paying much for its gas, the Omani government has so far baulked at the price of gas that BP has proposed for the project. Without a significant mark up on current prices, the project will not be commercially viable for the company, however.
Khazzan is symptomatic for unconventional gas in the Gulf. Sold at very low rates to power plants and industry, gas does not generate sufficient revenue to justify heavy investment in the upstream on a commercial basis.
Many observers believe that low prices are not sustainable in the face of spiralling demand.
"Shale gas would not be economic at current gas prices, but then everybody has accepted that gas prices have to go up," says Robin Mills, the head of consulting at Manaar Energy.
Governments in the Gulf may have to accept that they will end up making a loss as conventional resources are not able to keep up with demand, but economic diversification and the extremely high use of electricity by its population makes cheap gas a necessity.
Unconventional gas, a term that also includes sulphur rich tight gas, could end up being cheaper than imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), says Mr Mills. This applies to shale gas, too, even if the lack of infrastructure would initially make production more expensive than in the US.
The Gulf countries are widely predicted to be increasingly short of gas, and LNG imports are already a reality in Kuwait and the UAE, where import capacity is being scaled up.
While shale oil might not become feasible in the Gulf as long as conventional oil production ensures healthy export revenues, the case for gas is different. Shale could become necessary to augment conventional resources and avoid LNG imports, and thus be a feature in the Gulf hydrocarbon sector.
It is likely that the Gulf will not be a blank space in future EIA shale maps.
fneuhof@thenational.ae
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
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World ranking (at month’s end)
Jan - 257
Feb - 198
Mar - 159
Apr - 161
May - 159
Jun – 162
Currently: 88
Year-end rank since turning pro
2016 - 279
2015 - 185
2014 - 143
2013 - 63
2012 - 384
2011 - 883
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
UAE rugby season
FIXTURES
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers v Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Division 1
Dubai Sharks v Dubai Hurricanes II
Al Ain Amblers v Dubai Knights Eagles II
Dubai Tigers II v Abu Dhabi Saracens
Jebel Ali Dragons II v Abu Dhabi Harlequins II
Sharjah Wanderers v Dubai Exiles II
LAST SEASON
West Asia Premiership
Winners – Bahrain
Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners – Dubai Hurricanes
Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference
Winners – Dubai Tigers
Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers
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Company profile
Name: Fruitful Day
Founders: Marie-Christine Luijckx, Lyla Dalal AlRawi, Lindsey Fournie
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2015
Number of employees: 30
Sector: F&B
Funding so far: Dh3 million
Future funding plans: None at present
Future markets: Saudi Arabia, potentially Kuwait and other GCC countries
Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush
Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”
A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.
“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”
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