Saxo Bank is predicting that commodity prices are nearing a bottom after hitting a 16-year low. That is because of signs that producers are struggling to meet rising demand as they cut back on new investment and lay off workers to pay back debt.
“There is light at the end of the tunnel, but the tunnel is quite long at the moment,” Ole Hansen, Saxo’s chief commodity strategist said last week amid a rout in the shares of Glencore, one of the world’s biggest publicly traded commodity trading companies.
“Some are not through the worse yet but it’s already in the prices,” he said. “We are not in a recession so far, but the market has responded quite forcefully to this change.”
The Danish investment bank, best known for online forex trading, joins a growing number of contrarian voices going against Goldman Sachs and other big Wall Street investment banks that are forecasting more pain ahead for raw materials.
The commodity bears contend that the plunge in prices, sparked by slowing economic growth in China and the strengthening US dollar, has further to go as supply continues to outstrip demand.
Meanwhile, the bulls, those who by and large are betting that prices will rise, maintain that global economic growth is still positive and that coupled with population growth and a finite pool of natural resources will trigger a rebound, especially as many producers struggle to make ends meet and reduce supply. At the same time, they hold, like Mr Hansen, that demand is increasing.
Speaking at the firm’s office in Dubai, Mr Hansen said there were signs that China was turning the corner economically and that producers would soon be unable to meet demand following a protracted glut.
The Danish strategist also pointed to fewer bets by big investors such as hedge funds against oil prices falling further as a sign that a rebound may be in store for crude.
Energy is by far the largest component of commodity markets and accounts for about 70 per cent of all trade.
Oil has been the hardest hit, losing nearly half of its value in the past 12 months as production from North America increased and demand for major consumers like China cooled. The slide deepened after Opec, led by Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, decided last year not to reduce production to stem the drop.
The fall in commodity prices follows a decade and a half of outsized growth and seemingly inexhaustable demand that led to a boom in business for producers. Other raw materials from copper, zinc, coffee and sugar have also been hurt with the benchmark commodity measure, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, losing a quarter of its value in the past year.
Mr Hansen, who had worked for a hedge fund and has more than 25 years of experience in trading commodities, is forecasting stable oil prices for the rest of the year with an expected pick-up towards the US$60 per barrel mark at the end of next year from about $45 per barrel at the moment.
He concedes, however, that no prediction is perfect and a lot will depend on factors such as the ability of emerging markets as a whole to make a turnaround, and not just China.
“There are signs, though, that China is starting to turn the corner and I don’t think we should forget the Chinese government’s ability to step in and try and stabilise things if they need to,” he said.
“But it’s a vicious circle because growth is dependent on emerging markets and emerging markets depend on commodities.”
mkassem@thenational.ae
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Naga
Company%20Profile
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
September 30
South Africa v Australia
Argentina v New Zealand
October 7
South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Richard Jewell
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Paul Walter Hauser, Sam Rockwell, Brandon Stanley
Two-and-a-half out of five stars
The biog
Hobby: "It is not really a hobby but I am very curious person. I love reading and spend hours on research."
Favourite author: Malcom Gladwell
Favourite travel destination: "Antigua in the Caribbean because I have emotional attachment to it. It is where I got married."
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Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
The biog
Age: 46
Number of Children: Four
Hobby: Reading history books
Loves: Sports
COMPANY%20PROFILE
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
SPECS%3A%20Polestar%203
COMPANY%20PROFILE
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Medicus AI
Started: 2016
Founder(s): Dr Baher Al Hakim, Dr Nadine Nehme and Makram Saleh
Based: Vienna, Austria; started in Dubai
Sector: Health Tech
Staff: 119
Funding: €7.7 million (Dh31m)
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
More from Con Coughlin
Company%20Profile
COMPANY PROFILE
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
RESULT
Los Angeles Galaxy 2 Manchester United 5
Galaxy: Dos Santos (79', 88')
United: Rashford (2', 20'), Fellaini (26'), Mkhitaryan (67'), Martial (72')
Super Rugby play-offs
Quarter-finals
- Hurricanes 35, ACT 16
- Crusaders 17, Highlanders 0
- Lions 23, Sharks 21
- Chiefs 17, Stormers 11
Semi-finals
Saturday, July 29
- Crusaders v Chiefs, 12.35pm (UAE)
- Lions v Hurricanes, 4.30pm
COMPANY%20PROFILE
While you're here
Chitrabhanu Kadalayil: Singapore election is more than just a family feud over LKY's legacy
Sholto Byrnes: Robert Mugabe and Lee Kuan Yew: two leaders with very different legacies
Dr Vivian Balakrishnan: UAE and Singapore can be partners for a world in transition
Nick March: Singapore and UAE are on the move – in airport development
Company%20profile
RESULTS
Main card
Bantamweight 56.4kg: Mehdi Eljamari (MAR) beat Abrorbek Madiminbekov (UZB), Split points decision
Super heavyweight 94 kg: Adnan Mohammad (IRN) beat Mohammed Ajaraam (MAR), Split points decision
Lightweight 60kg: Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Faridoon Alik Zai (AFG), RSC round 3
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Taha Marrouni (MAR) beat Mahmood Amin (EGY), Unanimous points decision
Light welterweight 64.5kg: Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE), Unanimous points decision
Light heavyweight 81.4kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Haroun Baka (ALG), KO second round
ETFs explained
Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.
ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.
There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.
While you're here
Hussein Ibish: America's attitude to Palestine and Israel has subtly shifted
Con Coughlin: With every missile fired in Israel-Gaza, Biden's clout reduces
Anwar Mhajne: The moral burden of being a Palestinian citizen of Israel
COMPANY%20PROFILE
CABINET%20OF%20CURIOSITIES%20EPISODE%201%3A%20LOT%2036
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
While you're here
National Editorial: Sea slime is not just Turkey's problem
Barham Salih: Climate fight is key to revitalising Iraq
Andrew Wilks: Is Turkey a water-hoarding bogeyman?
All the Money in the World
Director: Ridley Scott
Starring: Charlie Plummer, Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Williams, Christopher Plummer
Four stars
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S23%20ULTRA
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
Company Profile
Company name: NutriCal
Started: 2019
Founder: Soniya Ashar
Based: Dubai
Industry: Food Technology
Initial investment: Self-funded undisclosed amount
Future plan: Looking to raise fresh capital and expand in Saudi Arabia
Total Clients: Over 50
MORE FROM ED HUSAIN: The UAE-Israel accord is a win for every Muslim
Healthy tips to remember
Here, Dr Mohamed El Abiary, paediatric consultant at Al Zahra Hospital Dubai, shares some advice for parents whose children are fasting during the holy month of Ramadan:
Gradual fasting and golden points - For children under the age of 10, follow a step-by-step approach to fasting and don't push them beyond their limits. Start with a few hours fasting a day and increase it to a half fast and full fast when the child is ready. Every individual's ability varies as per the age and personal readiness. You could introduce a points system that awards the child and offers them encouragement when they make progress with the amount of hours they fast
Why fast? - Explain to your child why they are fasting. By shedding light on the importance of abstaining from food and drink, children may feel more encouraged to give it there all during the observance period. It is also a good opportunity to teach children about controlling urges, doing good for others and instilling healthy food habits
Sleep and suhoor - A child needs adequate sleep every night - at least eight hours. Make sure to set a routine early bedtime so he/she has sufficient time to wake up for suhoor, which is an essential meal at the beginning of the day
Good diet - Nutritious food is crucial to ensuring a healthy Ramadan for children. They must refrain from eating too much junk food as well as canned goods and snacks and drinks high in sugar. Foods that are rich in nutrients, vitamins and proteins, like fruits, fresh meats and vegetables, make for a good balanced diet
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
COMPANY PROFILE
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
The 15 players selected
Muzzamil Afridi, Rahman Gul, Rizwan Haider (Dezo Devils); Shahbaz Ahmed, Suneth Sampath (Glory Gladiators); Waqas Gohar, Jamshaid Butt, Shadab Ahamed (Ganga Fighters); Ali Abid, Ayaz Butt, Ghulam Farid, JD Mahesh Kumara (Hiranni Heros); Inam Faried, Mausif Khan, Ashok Kumar (Texas Titans