Saudi economy back on track



The Saudi economy is back, but not with a bang. The experts agree the kingdom is recovering nicely from the aftermath of the financial crisis two years ago, and looks ready to resume its role as the dynamo of regional economic growth.

But there are "variables" that could affect the rate of recovery and global perception of the Middle East's biggest but most enigmatic business centre.

A recent report from Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) underlined the good news: business confidence is on the rise again. After a dip in the third quarter this year, largely because of worries about euro zone and sovereign debt fears, executives are more optimistic again.

The BSF index is back above the 100 base level and with all the important forward indicators on the rise it looks set to climb higher again next year.

As ever in Saudi, the motor for economic and financial growth is energy. The oil price averaged US$73 a barrel in the third quarter, confounding fears that it might fall below $65. Most Saudi executives now think prices will continue to rise, with the vast majority looking at between $75 and $85 a barrel in the next six months.

That has important implications for the national exchequer and for economic policy, but the immediate "feel good" factor is just as important. It encourages the banks to ease credit to the financial and commercial sectors, where they have been criticised in the past for an ultra-conservative approach that held back economic recovery.

The improvement is "gradual" but noticeable, says John Sfakianakis, the BSF chief economist who produced the report. "A third of respondents think bank lending will be good or excellent at the end of this year, which is in marked contrast to earlier forecasts," Mr Sfakianakis says.

Of most significance for the banking sector is the apparent end to the financial fallout from the Al Gosaibi affair.

One of the reasons credit was hard to find this year was the worry that the dispute between the business empires of the al Gosaibi family and the entrepreneur Maan al Sanea would cause a financial crisis for the country's banks, and fears that other trading groups could experience similar problems of over-leveraging.

With US$20 billion (Dh73.46bn) at stake for the global banking system, and an estimated $5bn of this for Saudi banks, the scope for serious damage was huge.

"The Saudi banks have all taken provisions above the normal rate in relation to [Ahmad Hamad Al Gosaibi and Brothers] and Saad [Mr al Sanea's master company], and now believe it's behind them," says Mr Sfakianakis. Although it is impossible to say precisely how much Saudi banks will take as a "hit" from the affair until we see detailed figures for the 2010 financial year, expected next spring, the damage looks containable.

How the foreign bank creditors involved in Al Gosaibi will fare is a different matter and could be one of the big "variables" mentioned above.

But for the moment, Saudi is basking in the bright prospects for the oil price. Anybody doubting how important energy is for the kingdom should look no further than the line in the BSF report that states: "This [the rise in oil prices] is promising for the state's fiscal revenues, more than 85 per cent of which are derived from oil exports, and should enable the kingdom to sustain foreign asset holdings at about 100 per cent of GDP while supporting an expansionary spending programme."

In other words, the Saudis have amassed enough petrodollars to sustain the economy through an era of current account budget deficit. That reserve is essential to fund recovery and finance the ambitious five-year economic plan for infrastructure investment and diversification.

This is a unique Middle East version of "quantitative easing". Whereas in the West quantitative easing is debt financing to stimulate economic recovery, in Saudi it is funded by petrodollar reserves - in other words, cold, hard cash.

All well and good so far, but then the "variables" begin to appear. The biggest is the oil price, of course, but as far as it is possible to forecast, prices look set on a steady upward trend.

The other possible negatives are inflation and the socio-demographic asymmetry that has long been a feature of Saudi society. The two are connected.

So far, inflation looks controllable. Mr Sfakianakis says it was about 5.9 per cent last month, comparatively high in regional terms, but with little prospect of an immediate rise. He thinks it will be about 5 per cent a year from now.

Two of the main elements of price inflation are food and housing, and it is here that the picture gets a little clouded.

Saudi's large, young and relatively impoverished lower classes want cheap food and affordable housing, but these demands have so far fallen outside the government's ability to deliver, even with all that oil wealth. It is the central enigma of the Saudi economic model.

Is it possible the Al Gosaibi affair will come back to bite the Saudi recovery? Perhaps. International banks, in for the lion's share of the $20bn hit, will want to see the matter resolved in an equitable fashion before they take part again in Saudi economic strategy.

For their part, the Saudis would rather have them on board but don't actually need them, as long as the oil price remains high. It's all in the hands of the Saudi authorities. How nice do they want to be?

Company profile

Name: Dukkantek 

Started: January 2021 

Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani 

Based: UAE 

Number of employees: 140 

Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service) 

Investment: $5.2 million 

Funding stage: Seed round 

Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office  

ICC Awards for 2021

MEN

Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)

T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)

ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)

Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)

WOMEN

Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)

ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)

T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)

JAPAN SQUAD

Goalkeepers: Masaaki Higashiguchi, Shuichi Gonda, Daniel Schmidt
Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Tomoaki Makino, Maya Yoshida, Sho Sasaki, Hiroki Sakai, Sei Muroya, Genta Miura, Takehiro Tomiyasu
Midfielders: Toshihiro Aoyama, Genki Haraguchi, Gaku Shibasaki, Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Shoya Nakajima, Takumi Minamino, Hidemasa Morita, Ritsu Doan
Forwards: Yuya Osako, Takuma Asano, Koya Kitagawa

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
  • Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
  • Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
  • Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
 
 
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Walls

Louis Tomlinson

3 out of 5 stars

(Syco Music/Arista Records)

PAKISTAN SQUAD

Pakistan - Sarfraz Ahmed (captain), Azhar Ali, Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Hafeez, Haris Sohail, Faheem Ashraf, Shadab Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Amir, Hasan Ali, Aamer Yamin, Rumman Raees.

Result

Tottenhan Hotspur 2 Roma 3
Tottenham: Winks 87', Janssen 90 1'

Roma 3
D Perotti 13' (pen), C Under 70', M Tumminello 90 2"

 

The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

MATCH INFO

Chelsea 0

Liverpool 2 (Mane 50', 54')

Red card: Andreas Christensen (Chelsea)

Man of the match: Sadio Mane (Liverpool)

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.8-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C200rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%20from%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh111%2C195%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Name: Peter Dicce

Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics

Favourite sport: soccer

Favourite team: Bayern Munich

Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer

Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates 

 

How to avoid crypto fraud
  • Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
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Game Changer

Director: Shankar 

Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram

Rating: 2/5

BORDERLANDS

Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis

Director: Eli Roth

Rating: 0/5

Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

Credit Score explained

What is a credit score?

In the UAE your credit score is a number generated by the Al Etihad Credit Bureau (AECB), which represents your credit worthiness – in other words, your risk of defaulting on any debt repayments. In this country, the number is between 300 and 900. A low score indicates a higher risk of default, while a high score indicates you are a lower risk.

Why is it important?

Financial institutions will use it to decide whether or not you are a credit risk. Those with better scores may also receive preferential interest rates or terms on products such as loans, credit cards and mortgages.

How is it calculated?

The AECB collects information on your payment behaviour from banks as well as utilitiy and telecoms providers.

How can I improve my score?

By paying your bills on time and not missing any repayments, particularly your loan, credit card and mortgage payments. It is also wise to limit the number of credit card and loan applications you make and to reduce your outstanding balances.

How do I know if my score is low or high?

By checking it. Visit one of AECB’s Customer Happiness Centres with an original and valid Emirates ID, passport copy and valid email address. Liv. customers can also access the score directly from the banking app.

How much does it cost?

A credit report costs Dh100 while a report with the score included costs Dh150. Those only wanting the credit score pay Dh60. VAT is payable on top.

The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Super 30

Produced: Sajid Nadiadwala and Phantom Productions
Directed: Vikas Bahl
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Pankaj Tripathi, Aditya Srivastav, Mrinal Thakur
Rating: 3.5 /5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Key changes

Commission caps

For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:

• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term). 

• On the protection component, there is a cap  of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).

• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated. 

• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.

• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.

Disclosure

Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.

“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”

Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.

Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.

“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.

Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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THE SPECS

      

 

Engine: 1.5-litre

 

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

 

Power: 110 horsepower 

 

Torque: 147Nm 

 

Price: From Dh59,700 

 

On sale: now  

 
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SUCCESSION%20SEASON%204%20EPISODE%201
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German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

Dunki
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rajkumar%20Hirani%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Taapsee%20Pannu%2C%20Vikram%20Kochhar%20and%20Anil%20Grover%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to help

Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200