Sabah Al Binali: Working through company grief to save the economy



There is a well-known model on the stages of human grief called the Kubler-Ross model. I believe it can be the basis for a form of company grief, a grief that we are seeing in a growing number of companies during these difficult times. In this article I describe the seven stages of company grief – ignorance, shock, denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

Ignorance: some or all of the senior decision-makers in the company have no knowledge of the disaster. One of the most famous examples is the bankruptcy of Barings Bank by Nick Leeson, a relatively low-level manager who over a three-year period lost US$1.4 billion, which resulted in the collapse of the bank. Think about it, a single manager, on his own, managed to fraudulently trade over three years and none of the senior executives knew about it.

Shock: senior executives and the board become aware of disastrous information and this leads to a violent emotional impact, which leads to an alteration of reality in the subsequent stage. The shock stage is usually minutes in length but the results are profound.

Denial: the decision-makers are in possession of the pertinent information but refuse to believe it. They have altered their internal reality so as not to face the painful information. In psychological parlance this is called cognitive dissonance, as there are two contradictory beliefs, as opposed to ideas, in one's mind – the belief just before the shock that everything is OK and under control, and the belief just after the shock that everything is imperilled.

This is arguably the most dangerous phase as it can last years, and opportunities to remedy any negative situations slip by. An excellent example is Nokia, the mobile phone maker. In 2007 Nokia had 40 per cent of global mobile phone sales, but by 2013 it had to sell its handset business to Microsoft. During the press conference announcing the sale, Nokia chief executive Stephen Elop said: “We didn’t do anything wrong, but somehow, we lost”. That, ladies and gentlemen, is denial.

Anger: the board or the chief executive come out of their denial but refuse to take responsibility and, more importantly, leadership. At this point they lash out as any angry person would. People are yelled at and fired for no real reason, bonuses are cancelled, salaries are frozen, vendors and suppliers are not paid on time and so on. On the one hand this exasperates the denial stage problem of time wasted doing nothing by replacing it with time wasted adding to the damage. On the other hand, it is usually a much shorter phase. For a great example look up "Chainsaw" Al Dunlop, a permanently angry man who effectively destroyed several companies.

Bargaining: trying any deal to save the situation. This includes randomly changing the chief executive and other executives, introducing random business plans, over-paying to recruit and retain executives, flogging various parts of the company at fire sale prices, and last but not least, lying, disguised as marketing or branding.

Depression: shareholders, boards and executives understand the severity of the situation, understand that there is no fast fix and spend years, even decades, keeping a company on life support without any real effort to do anything, a common malaise of SOEs and GREs. Sometimes, in the corporate equivalent of suicide, boards will shut down a company simply because they do not have the willpower to keep it going.

Acceptance: understanding that massive damage has been inflicted on the company, that there is no miracle forthcoming to change this, that to salvage what is left will take tremendous amounts of energy and will entail making serious decisions under uncertainty. Very few companies have evidenced this, but Apple is a spectacular example of such a success.

In these difficult times we must learn to move our companies through these stages as fast as possible and we absolutely have to learn acceptance. Otherwise, we are going to spend US$2 trillion keeping everything on life support, and then ignominiously bury the economy.

Sabah Al Binali is an active investor and entrepreneurial leader with a track record of growing companies in the Mena region. You can read more of his thoughts at al-binali.com

business@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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