Roller coaster still takes everyone for a ride in Lebanon

Lebanon's Sunni community gave the world Rafik Hariri, the late prime minister, and Najib Miqati, the country's new premier.

Both wildly wealthy (as befits sons of the traditional merchant class), they bookend an extraordinary period in Lebanese history that is likely to reach its denouement in the coming weeks.

Part of Hariri's legacy was the spawning of an international court to find his killers, but Mr Miqati, who was brought in by the Hizbollah-led March 8 coalition, must now make sure those accused of involvement in the crime never make it to court. Any stand-off with the international community will not be good for business, and this is what promises to make the latest chapter in Lebanon's roller coaster history so fascinating. Because as we all know, Lebanon is all about business.

Before his death, Hariri had a US$6 billion (Dh22.03bn) fortune and the international clout to go with it. He used both to rebuild a city, literally out of the rubble of civil war, to create a regional showpiece and playground for vacationing fellow Arabs. He also felt that his friends in high places, notably Jacques Chirac, the French president at the time, would protect him from the region's assassins. That theory was proved wrong when he met his end in a massive bomb attack in front of Beirut's Hotel St Georges on February 14 2005.

Mr Miqati is not short of a bob or two either. His net worth, according to Forbes, is $2.5bn. Even though he comes from a more notable Sunni family, his fortune is self-made. With his brother Taha, he founded Investcom, a telecommunications company, in 1982 and sold it to South Africa's MTN Group for $5.5bn 24 years later. Today he runs the M1 Group, a holding company with interests in property, aviation and even Faconnable, the French fashion label so beloved of Lebanese yuppies.

Mr Miqati's political career began in 1998, when he was appointed minister of public works and transport by Selim Hoss, the prime minister at that time. Seven years later, he became interim prime minister following Hariri's death and the collapse of the short-lived and catastrophic government of Omar Karami. Back then, he was seen as the consensus candidate, a successful businessman with close ties to Damascus. If anyone could steady the ship as Lebanon entered a period of transition, it was him.

And today, as Lebanon again enters a new era under dramatic circumstances, Mr Miqati is again thrust into the limelight, and again sold as a moderating influence. This time he is the candidate for the other side, and the stakes are higher. He has already incurred the wrath of the majority of Lebanon's Sunnis for standing against the populist Saad Hariri, the previous incumbent of the Grand Serail and the son of Rafik. In the next two months, he will have to "deal" with the indictments issued by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, for it is a safe bet that agreeing to do so was a job requirement.

On Tuesday, steps were being taken to reduce the impact of Mr Miqati being seen as Hizbollah's man. The feeling in Beirut is that Hizbollah's participation in the next government will be minimal or even non-existent, even if it is the ultimate power on the ground. Assuming Mr Hariri Jr will not participate in the new administration, the "face" of the administration will be the so-called technocrats of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).

The FPM's leader Michel Aoun, a former army commander and once vehement anti-Syrian (he lived in exile in France for 14 years) has promised a programme of state reform and has vowed to set about exposing Hariri-era corruption, starting off with the ministry of finance's books, which he claims will expose a shameful history of mismanagement and graft. But Beirut is not Zurich. Corruption is so ingrained in the Lebanese system it is difficult to see how the Aounists will succeed, and heaven help them if anyone pokes around in their own, or even Hizbollah's accounts. As for state reform, well, good luck to them.

Mr Miqati's new government, for what it's worth, might like to look at the recently released 2010 Legatum Prosperity Index, which has ranked 110 nations in order of "happiness" (a combination of political and socio-economic indicators). Lebanon ranked 83, one behind Syria. No biggie there you might think, but what was interesting is that we scored low on entrepreneurship and opportunity, governance, personal freedoms and something called social capital (our ability to pull together for the common good). Our best scores were in economy, education and health. The latter two have always been strengths, while the former has for the past few years been based on substantial in-flows rather than the fruits of a well-structured economic system.

And it doesn't look as if that will change in a hurry. Indeed, if Lebanon does find a legal loophole to bat away the tribunal's findings that will more than likely indict Hizbollah members, all sorts of aid and funding might dry up. Sunni money from the Gulf might not flow into the country so rapidly, and foreign direct investment might give Lebanon a miss if it knows that the government is controlled from Damascus and Hizbollah aren't going to give up their weapons any time soon.

In the meantime, life goes on. It is still tricky trying to find a table at Cocteau on a Friday lunchtime when the special is bouillabaisse.

Michael Karam is a publishing and communication consultant based in Beirut